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October 09, 2009 06:14 PM UTC

McInnis v. Penry: Now It's War

  • 19 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Conventional wisdom (which we never subscribed to) held that GOP gubernatorial candidate Josh Penry would post a substantially higher Q3 fundraising total than opponent Scott McInnis. Though we acknowledge the polls that show McInnis in the (very) early lead, we perceived momentum very clearly building for Penry over the last few months at McInnis’ expense.

As of yesterday, that conventional wisdom is in need of alteration–and with it a number of other assumptions about McInnis’ viability in this race. Things that previously looked disastrous for McInnis are being reassessed, as the Denver Post reports:

Gubernatorial contender Scott McInnis RSVP’d that he would attend a candidate forum later this month but only after organizers agreed there would be no debate with his primary rival, Josh Penry.

McInnis’ campaign also asked that the candidates not be on the stage at the same time.

The requests, coupled with McInnis’ decision to skip a straw poll last month when the Colorado Republican Party held its fall meeting, puzzled a number of GOP members, most of all Penry.

McInnis’ campaign said the focus needs to be on booting Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter in 2010 instead of on debates that could lead to intraparty squabbles…

Penry and Maes have attended more forums than McInnis, which two Denver political consultants said is understandable.

“It’s probably the first good management move I’ve seen by the McInnis people,” said Democratic consultant Steve Welchert. “He has the name ID, and he doesn’t have to play these games.”

Consultant Eric Sondermann, who is unaffiliated, said the candidates are practicing “predictable politics.”

“McInnis is playing the role you would expect of the top dog, and Penry is playing the role of the insurgent underdog,” Sondermann said. “I think the risk for McInnis is . . . he can’t let it become part of his image that he won’t take on his challenger.”

After McInnis’ very good quarter, he obviously thinks the last few months of debate evasion and on-air gaffes won’t hurt him in the long run. He’s the frontrunner now for the GOP nomination, a position that allows him to be “selective” in his public appearances. Given how those appearances have gone so far, we don’t blame him for wanting that to be true.

But Penry isn’t going to just fold. By now it’s evident that Penry is the preference of the Republican base, and Penry’s supporters have shown no compunction about viciously attacking McInnis at every oppportunity. That’s going to intensify in the coming weeks, while Penry’s campaign scrutinizes “McLobbyist’s” huge take for embarrassments–attempting to turn McInnis’ re-proven ability to raise coin against him.

Bottom line: McInnis answered the contempt expressed toward him by Penry and the GOP base, who assumed McInnis’ long goodbye would begin with Penry posting a dominant total for Q3. Now that McInnis has defied them, the real blood will begin to flow.

Oh, and why in the hell is The Post talking about what Dan Maes is doing?  

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19 thoughts on “McInnis v. Penry: Now It’s War”

  1. It is interesting that Penry and McInnis managed to raise twice as much combined as an incumbent Governor.  

    Maybe the Democrats ought to consider an alternative to Ritter. David Skaggs is one option.  

    1. Maybe one of them will be kind enough to supply Dems with a great put down of the other as the Rs did in handing us the unforgettable and highly effective “Both Ways Bob” meme. The Rs pretty much wrote the anti-Bob ads for us.  Could we get just as lucky again?  

    1.    He said it’s simply too early in the campaign for things to get ugly.  He was not specific when the Ugly Season should begin.

        I’m guessing it’s whenever he returns to Caplis & Silverman Show.

  3. This a.m., I’m listening to the radio and they’re talking about the numbers posted in the governor’s race. Specifically, Mcinnis’s take for the last quarter and then compared to Ritter’s take.

    And then, they add this, “Dan Maes and Josh Penry are also running for the Republican nomination for Governor.”

    That was it! That was all the nod he got in the whole segment. When you come in 3rd in the money game, I guess you get relegated to Cleve Tidwell status.

    If I was McInnis, I’d ignore him too. You can do that for more than a little while when you’re the front runner.  

  4. Recently there was an article – you may have covered it in CoPols that said the ultra right R’s would rather win a primary and lose a general election to keep R’s in line.  Penry and crew seemed to have bought into the plan. I agree with McInnis strategy – make room under the big tent for everyone including Indys if he wants to win in 2010.  

    2. Actually, McInnis is throwing the ranchers and farmers of Colorado under the bus – at least temporarily. His strategy is to suck up to El Paso County with the Pinon Canyon issue, win the primary, then come on as some kind of peacemaker with a compromise to make the ranchers and businessmen of El Paso County kiss and make up. Divide and conquer!

  5. Not merely inept.

    Now It’s War

    Here we are discussing very real human costs of a couple of real wars. We are trying to come to grips with the motivation for the latest Peace Prize award.

    And yet some still try to convince us that “war” is an appropriate metaphor for a political campaign?

    A more appropriate heading for this diary:

    McInnis v. Penry: Now It’s Time To Start Calling Each Other Names And Other Juvenile Tactics Of Modern American Political Campaigning

  7. I find it odd the Republican Party would rally behind Penry (and it’s obvious they’ve already choosen sides, hypocrits). He trashes the party for their past and its handling of policy etc., yet people on his campaign team were part of that problem, specifically, those employed by the Bush administration.

    Besides, he’s running on “change” and we see how well thats worked out. If all Penry’s got is his, “I’m going to change the party” bit, I’m not buying it. He’s a child in a grownups game. He should try running after he’s had some experience in the Senate or maybe he should try working the private sector for a bit, instead of having the taxpayers foot his paycheck all his adult life.  

  8. Penry, despite his fundraising in the last quarter, faces what looks to me to be a steep uphill climb.  McInnis, for all his faults, has better name recognition, a longer and more distinguished track record, most likely superior stamina in terms of fundraising, and far better political and financial connections outside Colorado.  Leading 40-12 in the one poll I’ve seen doesn’t hurt either, regardless of what the straw poll said.  I think it’s only a race if McInnis allows it to become one, and I think he’s smart to take steps to not allow it to develop into a race.

    Along that line, I think the quote provided by Middle Of The Road is telling–and damning: “Dan Maes and Josh Penry are also running . . . ”  

    That’s not to say that Penry couldn’t win the nomination.  As someone who supports Gov. Ritter, I hope Penry does, because I think he would be crushed in the general by Gov. Ritter.  The ideal scenario for Gov. Ritter is a bitter primary fight that leaves the eventual nominee so damaged that they can’t mount an effective campaign.

  9. whoever you all are who post on the front page have just the most hilariously awful political judgment I think I’ve ever seen, at least among people who are interested in the topic. Perhaps it reflects the “conventional wisdom” of a small circle of Denver-based Democratic political nerds who are not plugged into any other political worlds, whatever. If so, you should get out more. But I’m telling you, the “conventional wisdom” of political types outside of that world never thought Josh Penry would outraise Scott McInnis! Why on earth would you think that? Penry’s base are ultra-social-conservative types, McInnis’ more socially moderate fiscal conservatives. Who has more money? Also, there’s the little matter of McInnis’ many years raising millions for federal races, and his current gig moving among monied types in Denver. For most of us, it has always been a given that the primary would turn on Penry’s people versus McInnis’ money.

    Other strange judgments:

    1. Romanoff has a chance. Come on. And I support him! OK, maybe he has a chance, but he’s a huge underdog and has no contrasting message that works. Plus little money.

    2. Polis’ first year in office has been anything other than spectacular. I would suggest you go out and talk to more CD2 voters, but then, you always did have a blind spot about him.

    3. Betsy Markey is “on her way” to an easy win. I don’t know if you know CD4 very well, but if Markey-Gardner were today, she’d lose. Badly.

    But all that said, I keep coming back here, so you’re doing something right!

    2. Now, if we can just get some reading comprehension to go along with your loyal reading, we’ll be getting somewhere.

      1. We’ve been clear in several posts, as well as the Big Line, that McInnis has the ability to raise the money he needs. We began this post by saying we don’t subscribe to the conventional wisdom in question. But if you don’t think the Republican grassroots are trending solidly Penry, or composed of considerably more than “ultra-social-conservative types,” we question what ‘political nerds’ you get your advice from. We also agree with Ralphie re: energy dollars, but to be fair we can see them splitting the difference between Penry and McInnis.

      2. Please show us where we have ever portrayed Romanoff’s chances unrealistically. He is what he is to this race–kindly support these statements with evidence we are making the claim you say we are.

      3. It’s true that many CD-2 voters, particularly those who haven’t followed his actions in the health care debate closely, have no reason to believe that Polis has done them wrong. Hopefully for him they will continue to not follow the debate closely.

      4. When the hell have we ever said that Markey was “on her way” to an “easy win?” That tears it–you are reading somebody else’s blog.

      But we’re glad you keep reading this one, too.

    3. McInnis’ fundraising foreshadows tight gubernatorial race

      http://www.denverpost.com/poli…

      Republican gubernatorial hopeful Scott McInnis raised more in the third quarter than incumbent Democrat Gov. Bill Ritter, surprising politics watchers in the first peek at the former congressman’s fundraising efforts.

      ——–

      Hey, BD, did you ever figure out if “the base” supports Ritter or not?

      http://coloradopols.com/showCo…

      A lot of the Dem base still likes Ritter.

      I say that also because Bennet is tied at the hip to Ritter, who is becoming very unpopular in the Dem base.

      You’re a little confusing to follow sometimes, buddy.

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