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April 14, 2018 06:40 PM UTC

State Assemblies End; The Big Line Updates

  • 51 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

With both the Democratic and Republican state assemblies/conventions now behind us, we’ve made a multitude of updates to The Big Line. If you’re looking for information on who made the ballot and who didn’t, you’ll find those updates in The Big Line. If you’re looking for a good restaurant in Colorado, you will not find that information in The Big Line. If you’re looking for an analysis of the 2018 races for Governor, Attorney General, State Treasurer, Secretary of State, and Congress…it’s in The Big Line.

You may now commence with your complaints…

(P.S.: The Big Line)

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51 thoughts on “State Assemblies End; The Big Line Updates”

  1. puh-leaze

    Johnston at 25%?  
    No one knows who he is -and when teachers are reminded how much he loves teacher tenure they know who he is.  Lynne? why?  And 'why not' is not ananswer.

    Add their 25% to Kennedy – and it becomes clear top line on the ballot is all that matters.

    A challenger on the ballot in CD1?  What… well, no matter who wins, we're all Democrats now

     

    Crowmentum?  How are you measuring that? "Generic D" was outpolling him as the caucus season began. Since then – Tilleman's numbers keep going up. 

    Wait- Wesier at 50% in a field that adds to 120%
    Are you trying to create the perception that he's a coin toss away? But 120? what … wait… there might not be a Treasurer?  The candidates remaining sum to 95%…. 5% goes to none of the above?

     

    1. 1) Johnston is at 15%, not 25%

      2) Crow was beating Coffman in last public poll — first time anyone has ever been polling ahead of Coffman in CD-6.

      3) We don't try to sum out at 100% with multiple Primary candidates. In the AG race, for example, we think Weiser has the best chance of getting elected in November.  In other words, we're trying to gauge which candidate has the best chance to win the Primary plus the best chance of winning the General Election against all potential Republicans (or vice-versa). Also, we suck at math.

      2. Johnston 15%
        Lynn       10%

        =            25%

        Add it to something and it's (something + %25)

        Not sum to 100 …. cause math, with percentage signs!
        nice

    2. Here are the official Assembly results from the Colorado Democratic Party:

      (copied from a CDP email including a fundraising plea and a request for volunteers)

      RESULTS

      Bolded candidates have qualified for the Democratic primary ballot.

      CU Regent-at-Large
      Lesley Smith: 3,229 votes (100.00%)

      Treasurer
      Bernard Douthit: 1,074 votes (31.50%)
      Charles Scheibe: 557 votes (16.34%)
      Dave Young: 1,778 votes (52.16%)

      Secretary of State
      Jena Griswold: 3,352 votes (98.44%)
      Phillip Villard: 53 votes (1.56%)

      Attorney General
      Amy Padden: 360 votes (10.54%)*
      Joe Salazar: 1,249 votes (36.58%)
      Phil Weiser: 1,805 votes (52.87%)

      *Amy Padden can quality for the ballot if the Secretary of State determines that she has collected the requisite number of valid signatures. 

      Governor
      Cary Kennedy: 2,101 votes (61.65%)
      Jared Polis: 1,120 votes (32.86%)
      Erik Underwood: 187 votes (5.49%)

      NOTE: These are not all of the candidates that are running for these particular offices. Some candidates have chosen to qualify for the ballot by submitting petition signatures instead of going through the caucus-assembly process.

  2. You say: "DeGette’s in trouble. She might have fallen asleep at the wheel at the wrong time." I don't think so.

    1. Assembly vote: DeGette 64%, Rao 36%. In a partisan Assembly, with delegates wanting to push her left and some voting "ABD," a result of activists seeing the name and reacting to what the "inside baseball" people see as negatives.

    2. When it comes to a primary, DeGette has multiple elections to build name recognition and support. More people know her, many people appreciate the possibility of the benefits of seniority.

    3. Rao raised $250,000 — an impressive amount. But at the end of March, DeGette raised $240,000 and had about $213,000 banked. I haven't seen any indication she was pushing fund raising hard. She raised $1.25 million in 2016 — do you really believe she can't go back to most of those individuals and groups and get the money her campaign believes is needed?

    1. Degette didn't show up at state Assembly. Now, maybe she had pressing Congressional business – don't know. But yeah, it looked bad when she wasn't there for the post-platform 3 minute speeches, and her opponent, Saira Rao, was.

      Probably she spoke at her own CD1 Assembly – I don’t know.

      Rao is sharp, has sound progressive ideas, is a good speaker, comes across as younger and more dynamic than Degette. Obviously, more approachable, too.

      Degette should have to work to keep her seat – I do think she takes it for granted.

      Perlmutter didn’t show up at the state assembly, either, as far as I can tell. He has no primary opponent. But even beloved Ed should have to work for his seat.

      1. Huh? 

        DeGette's Facebook update says "Incredible day at the Democratic state assembly! I met with veterans, labor activists and so many more. You all inspire me. "  It has pictures, so I think it is likely that it happened.

        1. Apparently Degette was there,  met with people and probably left early. She did not speak. Saira Rao was the only speaker at the main assembly on Saturday for CD1. If you live in CD1, you might ask her why she didn't speak.

          1. Way to cop out, dave. When did you decide it was no longer your responsibility to save the world?

            Seriously, though. They need our help. Boomers still are the driving force in economics, politics, corporate leadership, education, and so many other aspects of our society. I hope you are not suggesting we just all retire to St. Kitts and let our country go to hell. We need to make sure that, as the reins of society and culture are quite naturally and appropriately passed to our kids, that we assist them and protect them. The bad guys never quit.

            That "generation" is our kids…after all

              1. Hmmmmmm.  Would that be the now 82-year old, Dick Lamm, Dave? . . .

                . . . maybe he ‘s developed bone spurs or something?  Maybe he’s doing alternative service?

                Even if Dick is now claiming conscientious-objector status, I probably wouldn’t worry too much about that duty-to-die thing, Dave.  I’ve yet to meet anyone who I thought was unlikely to eventually do their duty someday.

                YMMV. But, for some reason I suspect you personally see that at as a duty for others, but one from which you’re personally exempt? . . .

                . . . Sounds like you’d make a great politician, Dave. You’re old and you spout ideas about dutiy for others (that you’ve personally avoided)!?

              2. Apparently Dick (and you) never read Tolstoy . . . 

                The syllogism he had learnt from Kiesewetter's Logic: "Caius is a man, men are mortal, therefore Caius is mortal," had always seemed to him correct as applied to Caius, but certainly not as applied to himself. That Caius – man in the abstract – was mortal, was perfectly correct, but he was not Caius, not an abstract man, but a creature quite, quite separate from all others. He had been little Vanya, with a mamma and a papa, with Mitya and Volodya, with the toys, a coachman and a nurse, afterwards with Katenka and will all the joys, griefs, and delights of childhood, boyhood, and youth. What did Caius know of the smell of that striped leather ball Vanya had been so fond of? Had Caius kissed his mother's hand like that, and did the silk of her dress rustle so for Caius? Had he rioted like that at school when the pastry was bad? Had Caius been in love like that? Could Caius preside at a session as he did? "Caius really was mortal, and it was right for him to die; but for me, little Vanya, Ivan Ilych, with all my thoughts and emotions, it's altogether a different matter. It cannot be that I ought to die. That would be too terrible."

                . . . or he (and you) thinks that no one else ever has??!

          3. I am ready for the next generation to assume responsibility. I've actually been telling them that for some time. But, it isn't a matter of me just walking away and getting out of the way. It is important that they actually take the opportunity, win the election. When they do, I'll not complain

      2. Yes. In Congress, seniority means power, and if, as seems reasonably plausible, the Democrats regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, Denver is much better off with a powerful and senior incumbent representing it.

        DeGette may not showboat or emphasize issues that have little chance of legislative success that the base is excited about, but she almost never does anything that many Democrats would be seriously opposed to. She consistently votes the right way, which is something that can’t be said, for example, of Democratic Senator Michael Bennet from Colorado.

        She is a seasoned, scandal free, liberal Democratic woman. She doesn't deserve a primary challenge, and she will trounce her rookie opponent.

        Save primary challenges for incumbents who are either failing as individuals, or are far afield from the political center of the party.

      4. Dave, you forget that the Boom went on for 20 years (though some say 18, cutting it off when Kennedy was shot). I was born in ’65, but because I was the straggling baby of my family I have always considered myself a Boomer. So that generation has a ways to go before you order us all out to pasture.cheeky

  3. From the bug line:

    CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

    (D) Joe Neguse* (85%)↑
    Overwhelming support from CD-6 assembly. Neguse will win the Primary and will have no trouble in a General Election.

    That kind of support, getting delegates from another district, is unheard of!  Or maybe a typo.

    2. Neguse got 91% at the state assembly, and gave a moving speech, as he always does. The man can rock a podium. Boulder will be well-represented by him. My sister and brother-in-law are psyched.

  4. I heard Ms. Kennedy's 3 minutes on the late news last evening. Sounded like she was talking in favor of that universal health care gig again, like the ballot initiative that was overwhelmingly rejected by voters a couple years ago. I remember it well; my state taxes would have tripled with no benefit to me. Polis would be far more respectful for taxpayers' dollars. 

    1. Cary’s proposal is two-fold: allow buy-in to state employee health plan or Medicaid.

      I am proposing that all Coloradans be able to buy into Medicaid (Health First Colorado) and the health plans available to state employees. Adding these options through Colorado’s health insurance exchange would lower premiums, stabilize markets, and increase choices by creating a public insurance program available to all Coloradans. The Health First Colorado buy-in portion of my plan creates a public option that will offer more affordable and comprehensive coverage when private carriers are too costly or unwilling to provide it. The best solution to fill the gap in coverage, cost, and accessibility in Colorado is a public option, offering more affordable choices without additional taxes, especially for rural Colorado where options are currently so limited.

      Since my wife’s $750/month cobra coverage ends next year leaving us exposed until she reaches 65, this issue is extremely important to us both

    2. I left after balloting so I did not watch the 3-minute speeches at the end.

      But from what I saw, most of the candidates were pandering to the base (liberal activists, teachers, Dreamers, the LGBTQ community – and I confess, being a member of that last group, I was looking for a "Take That Mike Pence" sign to wave). And they did that because — well, the base was that  to whom they were speaking. Some pandered more than others.

      One of the few refreshing candidates was Charles Scheibe who was running for Treasurer. After Dave Young and Bernard Douthit gave speeches endorsing a public bank, Scheibe got up and told people what they did not want to hear: that as Treasurer he would have zero ability to set up a public bank, and if he were running for the legislature, it would be a legitimate issue.

      I went in planning to vote for Dave Young but after hearing the speeches, I went with Scheibe because he was the one candidate who actually understood what the Treasurer's job entailed. But alas, he ended up with only 16.34%. Telling people what they want to hear works. And not just in the GOP.

       

      1. Actually, I didn’t hear Young mention establishing a public bank – only Douthit (which btw, I think is a great idea).

        Schiebe, while very competent and experienced, makes a terrible campaigner, likely losing in the general.  He’s currently in exactly the job he’s best suited for.

        The treasurer is in a position to advocate and facilitate legislation, so leading the effort to solve the marijuana banking issue is very much a role appropriate to the job.

        1. I've heard Young mention establishing a public bank, possibly through the post office system, a couple of times. It's on Young's campaign front page.

          Young is better on education, and is a very savvy politician. He entered the treasurer race after Lebsock's candidacy collapsed. He has stayed out of directly critiquing oil and gas development in Frack City Greeley, until very recently.

          Douthit, in my opinion, is not as good a politician, maybe not as electable as Young, but would probably make a better Treasurer, because of his education and experience.

          I think that the two men are probably equally progressive on issues I care about.

          1. Thanks MJ for that update.  I hadn't dug into either of their websites, but am going to pay more attention for the primary.  BTW, I voted for Young anyway, based on my impression that he's likely more electable.

            But I'm definitely willing to see which candidate does the better job on the campaign trail.  Young definitely has a head start, and I'm happy he's also on board with the public banking issue.

            I'm happy with the results of the assembly vote (eliminating the distraction of Scheibe's candidacy)

          2. Agree, Douthit does have the resume qualification. If you were hiring a treasurer, he would be the right pick. If you were nominating a candidate for treasurer, Young is the better politician. 

  5. Why is an advertisement for Mitt Romney's nephew on the masthead of Colorado Pols this morning?

    Did Google Chrome, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica and/or Vladimir Putin analyze my Internet searches and somehow got the idea I might actually vote for him? And in a Republican primary no less?

    I confess, I did visit the state GOP website to see who finished where in the race for state treasurer but curiosity does not make me a convert.

          1. Alexa tends to ignore my wife's repeated commands, but always does what I request.  Maybe she got the Alex version with MSHS (Male Selective Hearing Syndrome)cheeky

  6. I won't be voting for Kennedy in the primary, but I think you're vastly underselling her chances here (or overselling Polis's). The two are running even as far as my observations are concerned. 

      1. Party activists will not have a major influence in the election. It's the unaffiliated, independents, who will control things. Polis is more pragmatic on issues of concern to me. If it comes down to Polis and Stapleton, Polis will have my vote. Kennedy and Stapleton: I won't cast a vote. 

        Victor Mitchell remains a wild card in my thinking of who I would vote for. Unfortunately, via the flyer I just got from him, I see he is pandering to the far right wing religious zealots, which lowers him in my estimation.

        1. Political scientists (and party activists) will have a field day analyzing the impact of unaffiliated/independent voters on both Republican and Democratic primaries.

          Will the novelty of finally having a voice in partisan primaries lead to higher than normal turnouts based on November election history?

          Will they vote in higher numbers in November as well?

          Will partisan voters continue to dominate turnout?

          Kent Thiry wants to know, so he can decide if a run for office is worth his time and money indecision

          1. My wife has demanded that I vote in the primary for someone she supports, so I'll be pulling a Democratic ballot this year.  Not sure I would have otherwise.  But, it's tough to keep waking up in the middle of the night because you can feel your partner glaring at you, so vote I shall.

            I think it would take having either a candidate I actively support or one I actively despise to get me to vote in the primary.

            1. My unaffiliated (former Republican) wife has a similar situation with me — she probably wouldn't vote at all except for my "encouragement" wink 

              Fortunately, she tends to vote Democratic now anyways — she finds today's GOP absolutely repellant.

              Individual votes may only be an acorn, but eventually some grow into mighty trees.

            2. I cleaned up and updated (now with results!) my assembly diary, and behold! It's back on the front page. You can peruse it to see which candidates made it through the assembly process and will be on the Democratic ballot.

  7. Pols – do you know that people can't comment with Pols accounts on The Big Line? Only Facebook users can comment. Was that intentional?

    Also, you need to correct the Neguse / Williams line. Neguse got 91%, not 85%, at the Assembly. Williams did not make 10%, and will not be on the ballot even with his petitions.

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