U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 12, 2018 09:59 AM UTC
18 Comments
Heads, I win. Tails, you lose.
It's like my pet peeve when people use the phrase "may or may not" , i.e. Donald Trump may or may not have syphillis. . Yeah, that pretty well covers all the possibilities.
Mine is the answer "well yes and no".
I predict if Crow wins that CD6 will be democratic for a long time. The Tom Tancredo era would be over.
I agree. The GOP will have trouble recruiting a mainstream candidate in 2020. What do they have for a farm league team? Ryan Frazier or some other Aurora municipal government alumni.
Instead, they'll take a walk on the wild side and run a red meat extremist. Powerful Pear, your 15 minutes of Warholian fame will arrive in 2020.
Coffman would likely just run again. Hell, after redistricting he'll probably get his own cushy R+15 seat connected to Douglas County (again), so even if he doesn't next cycle, he'll undoubtedly run (in a competitive primary, most likely) in 2022.
Agreed that Coffman will want to continue to be on the government dole for his entire career but redistricting isn't going to hand him a seat especially not in 2020. First time redistricting will count is in 2022 and even then it will be by either a Democratically controlled legislature or an independent group. Mike might still win but if he goes down it will be for the full count.
PP came from Miami, F.L.A.
Hitchhiked his way across the U.S.A. …
From the Horse's mouth:
Nah. I think Pear could set his sights a little higher in 2020. Like Primary Cory Gardner. Because Gardner only voted with Trump 91% of the time, so he's impure.
Frazier? When was he a powerhouse?
CD-6 is going Dem this year. I think enough people have had it with the marshmellow. He can be very soft on his answers and yet bounce back to support the guy in Kremlin West.
Too bad Morgan could not have had the run this year. It would have been fun to see her replace the Major.
How do you explain statistics to the in-numerate?
I regularly read http://fivethirtyeight.com
Enten sure ain't no Steve Kornacki, but it sounds like CNN is making a half-
assedhearted attempt to catch up to MSNBC.Actually, CNN's John King and his magic wall is considerably more sophisticated than Kornacki and CNN, though I prefer MSNBC overall.
Deleting duplicate. Darned sticky keys!
This is really the only accurate kind of forecast out there — one that is non-definitive, and allows for a range of possibilities for the plain and simple truth that, despite our best wishes, we actually cannot predict the future.
So it may seem unhelpful to speak of possible outcomes like Harry Enten is doing here, but so what? The choices for forecasts are for them to be less helpful or less truthful. You can pack "local knowledge" and non-quantitative stuff into your predictions all you want, it doesn't make the certainty of your prediction any more or less strong.
I'll choose accuracy over specificity any day of the week. We all woke up the morning of November 8, 2016 confident in the specific states that would be voting for Hillary and look where that got us…
Uncertainty needs to be counted for more seriously when we conduct our armchair punditry. Well, guess it doesn't have to be, but the point is it should and we shouldn't just dismiss forecasts like this one because it acknowledges that uncertainty in an accurate and rigorous way.
There is an 81 percent chance that I agree with you, Raphael, and a 38 percent chance that you are full of shit.
Precisely.