President (To Win Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
See Full Big Line
(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
See Full Big Line
(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
See Full Big Line
(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
See Full Big Line
(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
See Full Big Line
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 17, 2018 04:23 PM UTC
13 Comments
If 7 points is the spread, Jared beats the spread. I think he wins by 10.
No, let's not forget the Tom Bradley Effect. This is probably a statistical tie in reality.
As for Polis having a 90% chance of being elected governor, did not Nate Silver give Hillary Clinton an 84% of being elected president two years ago at this point?
R & R: you're correct about the Hillary prediction. Evidently 538 missed the big swings to Trump in WI, MI, PA. Not "big" in total vote numbers, but enough to put all three in Trump's column and give him the presidency.
Don't forget, the polls were right about the popular vote, where hillary won bigly. No state has an electoral college to screw up the popular vote.
538.com also couldn't react to the specifics of the FBI Director Comey letter to Congress being leaked.
Nor have I seen any indication of an enthusiastic rally for Stapleton, the type Trump was able to produce.
Nor have I seen a great deal of "free media" devoted to Stapleton. The number I saw on the 2016 campaign was $5 billion for Trump, $3.6 (or maybe $3.4?) billion for HRC.
So, Stapleton has no "free media" advantage. No enthusiasm gap. As of yet, no law enforcement letter (and the "criminal" charge offered by Stapleton backers is pathetically weak and probably backfiring). No structural advantage like the Electoral College to skew things.
The only hope left is in the Bradley effect / "ick" factor issue. Even the Bradley effect was only good for 5% — one study looking at many races had its impact as about 3%.
I just got a crazy ad pushed to me on my phone from SOS (saveourstate.net). I can't take a screen shot from my phone, but it showed an attractive blonde thinking hard about:
Don't vote for Polis for Governor! He wants to bring Sharia into our schools!
I shit you not, that's what it said. It's based in Greeley. I'll look into it, see if I can find out where the money's coming from.
The registered agent for “Save our state“, a business registered in Colorado in 2004, reactivated in 2011 and again in 2015, is Michele Austin, of Englewood.
She stars in the video scaring people about Polis, and is listed as owner of Red Map Strategies, caucus secretary at the Colorado General Assembly, and treasurer and registered agent at the Colorado Leadership Fund.
All you big time reporters waiting for someone to research your next scoop, here ya go:
Colorado Republicans Underwrite Vicious Smear Telephone Ad against Jared Polis
Holy crap.
Sweet (white baby) Prosperity Geezuz
Any real difference between "sharia" and the rapture/theocracy desired by the far right wing religious groups?
I wonder if Michele Austin is acquainted with Gordon Klingenschmidt?
No real differences except the names on the checks, CHB. It's all about social control.
What's funny about this particular lady is that she is quite blatant about who she is and what she's doing. She is the registered agent for "Save Our State", as well as the CEO of Red Map Strategies, and a former secretary and treasurer of the Colorado GOP's political arm, the Colorado Leadership Fund.
To top that off, she stars in her own unfunny "comedy" videos (designed to appeal to millennials and "edgy" people, according to the SOS website) . It's obviously the face of Michele Austin and matches her LinkedIn profile. If she's trying to appeal to millenials by targeting their phones, she's seriously underestimating their taste and intelligence. I have 14 year old students who would think her anti-Polis ad was lame AF. They also get all their news from their phones – but they don't vote.
The videos disparage Polis as a tax-hunting socialist who wants to "Californicate" Colorado and kill 250,000 gas and oil jobs….same old tired talking points as the entire GOP base.
I don't know how much it costs to be able to "push" these ads to phones – I don't seem to opt out of these ads as long as I have an android phone with Google calling the shots – but it must be pricey. Where does an amateur propagandist like Austin come up with those kinds of funds ?
A gay Jewish guy is a proponent of Sharia law……..
Exactly how stupid are people?
This might sell in Alabama, West Virginia or South Carolina but I have to believe that most Coloradans – being better educated – see how ridiculous this stuff sounds.
A gay Jewish guy who picks a female as a running mate.
The layers of stupid are thick on this one.
Nice. Wouldn't be a GOP-involved election without a heapin' helpin' of racist piggery.
It'll never happen, of course, but the state needs to nut up and get serious about enforcing C.R.S. § 1-13-109, under which knowingly or recklessly making, publishing or circulating false statements relating to a candidate for public office is a crime punishable by fines and/or imprisonment.
The only person to overcome those kind of odds had Russian intelligence agencies hacking into elections. I don't think that Stapleton has the same kind of pull with Putin as the draft dodging traitor Trump.