President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 15, 2018 11:18 AM UTC
10 Comments
Well, technically it'll be out of reach PERMANENTLY, as we get a redraw in 2022 (one which, I'll continue to insist, will likely create a safe R district anchored in Douglas County, which I imagine Coffman will run in unless his future lobbying job will be THAT cushy).
As much as I wish it had been Carroll, I always knew in the back of my mind that we'd need a veteran to overcome that last little bit Miklosi needed to win it.
Why do you think the redistricting commission will decide that Douglas County should do anything but anchor CD-4 like it does now? It about half the population that CD-4 needs to be a district at 335,299 of the ~700,000 that dividing the current population by eight gives if Highlands Ranch is no longer split off to be part of CD-6.
Nice analysis that isn't 'from the gut'. There is no incentive for the new redistricting commission to bow before Republicans. They aren't in the majority or have a dominant voice in the coming discussions.
Maybe a 4-2-2 split. Four Dem seats, two GOP seats, and two toss-ups.
I assure you I'm not 'gut'ing this, I've been looking at these lines for a decade. If you're looking for fewest county splits, keeping similar communities together, and compactness: Douglas becomes the focal point of the new district.
The commission will prioritize keeping political subdivisions whole, keeping together communities of interest (defined as ethnic, racial, or religious minorities), keeping districts compact, and only then will it seek to make as many competitive districts as possible.
In order for Weld and Douglas to be in the same district, they'd need Washington, Lincoln, and Elbert at least, and then either Morgan or Logan and Sedgwick, at which point they'd reach their max pop. Its either this (and then having Phillips et al be linked up to another district anchored in Pueblo) or to go through Adams and Arapahoe and leave more of the plains intact, but still separate from Weld County. Alternatively, Weld stays with all the plains counties, and picks up Pueblo instead of Douglas. Weld is closer in ethnic makeup and income levels to Pueblo than it is to Douglas, even if it is further away.
Keep going, and this eventually leaves only three counties that need to be split: JeffCo, Adams, and Arapahoe (plus Denver if you want cleaner lines). This would naturally suggest that the south of Arapahoe goes to Douglas's district along with the JeffCo south of Lakewood, Aurora gets linked up with Commerce City and Thornton around or through DIA (which takes from Perlmutter's district), and Denver loses Columbine, and possibly Englewood if you keep DIA in with the rest of the city.
But but but, Coffman's going to run for his old seat in 2020 and take it back. Moddy Meltdown told me so.
Mike would have won if he embraced The Dumpster®. At least that is what some orange buffoon tweeted/said.
Coffman's take on his loss
We'll likely have an eighth CD in 2022.