Jason Crow Beat Mike Coffman By 11 Points

10 thoughts on “Jason Crow Beat Mike Coffman By 11 Points”

1. Well, technically it'll be out of reach PERMANENTLY, as we get a redraw in 2022 (one which, I'll continue to insist, will likely create a safe R district anchored in Douglas County, which I imagine Coffman will run in unless his future lobbying job will be THAT cushy). 

   As much as I wish it had been Carroll, I always knew in the back of my mind that we'd need a veteran to overcome that last little bit Miklosi needed to win it. 

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   1. Why do you think the redistricting commission will decide that Douglas County should do anything but anchor CD-4 like it does now? It about half the population that CD-4 needs to be a district at 335,299 of the ~700,000 that dividing the current population by eight gives if Highlands Ranch is no longer split off to be part of CD-6.

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      1. Nice analysis that isn't 'from the gut'.  There is no incentive for the new redistricting commission to bow before Republicans.  They aren't in the majority or have a dominant voice in the coming discussions.

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         1. Maybe a 4-2-2 split. Four Dem seats, two GOP seats, and two toss-ups.

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         2. I assure you I'm not 'gut'ing this, I've been looking at these lines for a decade. If you're looking for fewest county splits, keeping similar communities together, and compactness: Douglas becomes the focal point of the new district.

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      2. The commission will prioritize keeping political subdivisions whole, keeping together communities of interest (defined as ethnic, racial, or religious minorities), keeping districts compact, and only then will it seek to make as many competitive districts as possible. 

         In order for Weld and Douglas to be in the same district, they'd need Washington, Lincoln, and Elbert at least, and then either Morgan or Logan and Sedgwick, at which point they'd reach their max pop. Its either this (and then having Phillips et al be linked up to another district anchored in Pueblo) or to go through Adams and Arapahoe and leave more of the plains intact, but still separate from Weld County. Alternatively, Weld stays with all the plains counties, and picks up Pueblo instead of Douglas. Weld is closer in ethnic makeup and income levels to Pueblo than it is to Douglas, even if it is further away. 

         Keep going, and this eventually leaves only three counties that need to be split: JeffCo, Adams, and Arapahoe (plus Denver if you want cleaner lines). This would naturally suggest that the south of Arapahoe goes to Douglas's district along with the JeffCo south of Lakewood, Aurora gets linked up with Commerce City and Thornton around or through DIA (which takes from Perlmutter's district), and Denver loses Columbine, and possibly Englewood if you keep DIA in with the rest of the city.

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2. But but but, Coffman's going to run for his old seat in 2020 and take it back.  Moddy Meltdown told me so.

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3. Mike would have won if he embraced The Dumpster®. At least that is what some orange buffoon tweeted/said.

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4. Coffman's take on his loss

   “Donald Trump is about Donald Trump, and what Donald Trump is, is he wants to be the center of attention every single day,” Coffman said, reflecting on Republicans’ newfound position in the House minority. “He wants to dominate the news cycle every single day, and good luck trying to get a message out of that.”

    

   In some ways, Coffman knew what was coming. The National Republican Congressional Committee — the official campaign arm for House Republicans — told him on Day 1 that if his race became part of the national referendum on the president, he was toast.

   “I tried, and I couldn’t do it,” he said, about localizing his race. Coffman’s district, the suburbs outside of Denver, Colorado, looks like a lot of the districts Democrats were able to pick off this midterm cycle. It’s always been held by a Republican, but voters there really doesn’t like Trump. Hillary Clinton won the district by nearly 9 points in 2016.

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5. We'll likely have an eighth CD in 2022.

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