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January 17, 2019 09:55 AM UTC

Trump, Republicans Still Own the Shutdown

  • 14 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: As the New York Times reports, Trump is feeling the pressure:

President Trump has insisted that he is not going to compromise with Democrats to end the government shutdown, and that he is comfortable in his unbendable position. But privately, it’s sometimes a different story.

“We are getting crushed!” Mr. Trump told his acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, after watching some recent coverage of the shutdown, according to one person familiar with the conversation. “Why can’t we get a deal?”…

The president is confronted by a divided and partially shuttered government with an untested staff that has undergone yet another shake-up. Polls show that most Americans blame him for the government shutdown, and his advisers are warning him of its negative effects on the economy. And as the shutdown enters its 27th day on Thursday with no end in sight, most of his top aides would like him to find a way out.

Mr. Trump has told them he believes over time the country will not remember the shutdown, but it will remember that he staged a fight over his insistence that the southern border be protected. He wants Democrats to come back to the table agreeing with his position on a wall, and he does not understand why they have not.

—–

Watch out for falling approval ratings.

There are no “winners” in a government shutdown. We are all losers when the government ceases to function, but Americans still have their own opinions on who should receive most of the blame. Despite efforts to shift responsibility for the shutdown to Democrats, Americans are consistently pinning this one on President Trump and Republicans.

As CNBC explains, Trump’s approval ratings are plummeting — even among his base:

President Donald Trump is hemorrhaging support amid a political standoff over his proposed border wall that has resulted in the longest government shutdown on record, according to polls.

As the shutdown of about a quarter of the federal government lumbers toward its fifth week, the president even appears to be losing favor with his core constituents, whose support for Trump until this point has been rock-solid since the 2016 campaign.

An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll published Thursday found that Trump’s approval rating has slipped 3 percent from last month to 39 percent, while his disapproval has climbed 4 percentage points to 53 percent. [Pols emphasis]

And unlike in past political fights, the poll and other recent surveys indicate that some of the groups thought to comprise key parts of Trump’s base are not immune from the broader downward trend.

Trump’s approval rating among suburban men, long one of his strongest blocs of support, dropped from 51 to 42 percent, according to the NPR/PBS/Marist poll*. It’s probably no coincidence that a good chunk of suburban men have federal government jobs for which they are not receiving a paycheck. Trump is also underwater with Cardi B (presumably).

President Trump is still holding onto the idea that he could declare a national emergency to secure funding for his great big wall, but voters don’t like that idea, either. From Politico:

Only 36 percent of voters say they support Trump’s re-allocating money to pay for the border wall through a national emergency, while 51 percent oppose such a declaration.  [Pols emphasis] Twice as many voters strongly oppose a national emergency, 41 percent, as strongly support it, 20 percent. And, as with much of the fight that has resulted in a government shutdown lasting more than three weeks, Trump has the support of the vast majority of Republican voters, 72 percent, but very few voters outside his political base.

Trump took his case for a border wall to the American people last week, delivering his first prime-time, Oval Office address in his two-year-old presidency. But the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll suggests that the president’s speech didn’t move the needle.

If President Trump wants to see better polling numbers, he’s going to have to pay for them. As Stephen Collinson writes for CNN, Trump is soon going to have to choose between preventing economic disaster and building his big wall.

*Pols note: All polling data should be considered (+/-) Laura Woods

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14 thoughts on “Trump, Republicans Still Own the Shutdown”

  1. Republicans couldn't get this done back in December. They didn't need Democrats if only they could agree amongst themselves. The Republican Senate passed something looking almost exactly like the Democratic House bill with nearly unanimous bipartisan support back in December.

    Trump, bolstered by the Freedom Caucus, and now covered for by Mitch "The Coward" McConnell and his GOP Senate colleagues, are really the only ones to blame here. Democrats have offered several negotiation opportunities to enhance border security. Trump wants his wall so he can destroy sensitive habitat and look strong. Insecurity is setting in.

  2. “ . . .a good chunk of suburban men have federal government jobs for which they are not receiving a paycheck.”???

    I don’t doubt that Trumpty’s approval rating is down among suburban men, but for this particular reason???  . . .

    Wanna’ show your work, please?

    1. Fluffy is an outlier in that poll.  Maybe his spousal unit is playing "take your husband to work" day with him today and tomorrow so he can pass time filling staplers until Drumpf deems him once-again, essential. 

      2. I kinda’ like the idea of Fluffy maybe being one of those recently ordered back to work, but without pay . . .

        . . . that way, when he posts on Pols, he can be not paid for not doing the gubbermint job he’s reqired to be at?

    2. ~80 million men working in the US.  Even if you figure the shutdown numbers and contractors who are men reach 800,000, I think I can trust my math skills to figure out 1% of men are directly impacted.

      1. Family members. Government contractors. Everyone who wants to visit a national park, needs a home loan, wants to get through airport screening … c'mon, think a little before posting.

        1. The original post " It’s probably no coincidence that a good chunk of suburban men have federal government jobs for which they are not receiving a paycheck. "

          Lots of people are impacted. Many more will be soon. but the 51% to 42% shift in polling isn't because suburban men don't have government jobs.

  3. Let's leave aside whether a wall – whether it's concrete, steel slats, whatever else – is a good idea. Let's even leave aside whether this qualifies as a "national emergency." The basic problem is:

    Trump and the Republicans can't secure a majority of votes in the House, and 60 votes in the Senate, to fund a wall. In other words, they can't persuade legislators that this single item – a single subject – is a good idea on the merits. So instead, having failed to win in the marketplace of ideas, they've decided to – there's no other way to put it – HOLD US HOSTAGE by refusing to fund anything else, no matter how unrelated it is to the wall, until we agree to give in to their demands.

    This is economic kidnapping – economic terrorism – plain and simple. And if there's one thing almost everyone agrees with, it's:

    YOU DON'T NEGOTIATE WITH TERRORISTS.

    If you do, they'll just be emboldened to employ the same tactic the next time they can't get their way. The next time it'll be:

    "You won't fund my boondoogle defense system benefiting my own state (or New Hampshire, or Iowa)? Fine, I'll shut down the government."

    "You won't agree to let me do away with Mueller's position? OK, shut down everything!"

    "You want to impeach and convict me? Shut 'er down!"

    This goes both ways, by the way. It was wrong for the Democrats to shut down the government – for one day – over the Dreamers. But at least they quickly relented. Here, the President doesn't give a rat's ass about the livelihood of American citizens. He is a ruthless terrorist, which makes it all the more important not to give in to his demands, but instead take any other (legal, non-violent) measures to stop him. I hope the GOP leadership in the Senate soon comes to its senses.

    1. The next hostage-taking terrorism will  occur predictably soon, likely in February, as we’re again nearing the government’s debt-ceiling cap.

      1. At this rate, February will also be when these appropriations bills pass.

        The new House rules adopted by Democrats automatically increase the debt ceiling for every spending bill to match spending as needed, so hopefully this isn't a problem after last year's spending is finalized.

  4. Forget about Trump. This is ALL about the Republicans who enable Trump. If this keeps up much longer the GOP will turn on Trump. I think they will anyway before 2020 and this could be their pretext. We can't let Republicans pivot off their own man.

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