President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
March 17, 2010 08:55 AM UTC
15 Comments
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The giant winner tonight is Ken Buck. Yesterday he was written off by most. Today he won. This is now a serious 2-way race and it’s dead even. And that’s with Jane Norton having had every advantage up till now.
By the same measure, Jane Norton is the biggest loser tonight. She went from expecting to be coasting to a primary win to discovering she’s in for the fight of her life.
Second biggest winner is Michael Bennet. Two months ago people were talking about how he would have to petition on the ballot. 42% is way above 30%. His trajectory is upward, he’ll do better as the voting pool expands, and he benefits greatly from the experience he will gain competing with Andrew Romanoff.
Third biggest winner is Scott McInnis – 60/40 is a strong win. With that said, I’m not sure this is over as 40% is amazing for a candidate who has no political relationships to leverage, no money, no organization. If I were Scott McInnis, I would remain very very worried about Dan Maes.
Fourth biggest winner is Andrew Romanoff. No it wasn’t a blow-out, but it was a decent win. If he had lost his campaign was over. So still in the race is a victory for Romanoff.
And a giant question mark on Dan Maes. He pulled 40% on nothing more than going around and talking to people. That’s gigantic. On the flip side, 40% is less than 50% and as the voting pool expands he faces the same problem Andrew Romanoff faces. Still 40% all by himself…
Beyond that, it’s anybody’s guess. Buck obviously was the major winner, and Norton the obvious loser.
Aside from that, I don’t know if you can discern much more.
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in the GOP caucus I attended
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Not much.
I will agree with those who will say it was an energizing “win” for Romanoff. Romanoff caucused well in Denver and the near burbs.
I also agree that Bennet wins because Andrew couldn’t put up 65% outside Denver and if Bennet can hang onto his delegates through the assembly, he’ll make the ballot. (more on “hanging on” later).
What it looks and feels like is in those precincts where Bennet had organizers, he did well. Ie, where someone was actively working to make sure people knew who Bennet was, he did well. I can’t believe Bennet got any delegates at all in Wash Park- but he did. Or in AR’s House district- but he did.
And in those areas not safely D, Bennet did well.
Someone here predicted 60% Romanoff with 12,000 turnout and 1% decrease for every 1000 additional turnout. CDP shows just under 22,000 turnout, implying just over 50% for Romanoff.
Buck and Maes did really well.
But did either of them do well enough that they can start seriously budgeting for media? If not – it’s tough to see how they get their message out much past the caucus goers and that’s not enough to win the general.
This will be an energizing result for Romanoff. I don’t care that over the past four months ago, or four weeks they have been ratcheting down expectaions. What will matter right now is that his strongest supporters can call it a victory and get back to work.
But will all those delegates show up at County and State?
Realizing that the caucus is so important it’s only real significance is getting on the ballot for the real deal- the primary. And many if not most of AR’s delegates could stay home for County assembly, and he’d still make the ballot.
To me- though I know not to others – the real question is whether he can now start to raise real cash. If the 1Q fundraising does not show a huge improvement over 4Q, then the campaign budget has got to make the hard choice: media or staff? Not much of either- but very little of each if both.
Money is not the only thing, maybe not even the most important thing. But it matters. Viable candidates do not have to have the most, but they need enough. He doesn’t have it yet. Will this matter to his fundraising?
The primary is going to be won or lost in mid to late July. I know “election day” is in August – but it will be the mail-in’s that win this. Is there enough time to reach out past the caucus goers without major media?
What do the caucus results mean?
Not much.
The primary results matter. The general electoin results will matter. The caucus- not much.
given all of the support Bennet had from big names–see the list by peacemonger–I’m surprised that AR wasn’t completely snuffed by Bennet.
From you: “What it looks and feels like is in those precincts where Bennet had organizers, he did well. Ie, where someone was actively working to make sure people knew who Bennet was, he did well.”
Let’s discuss some facts rather than looks and feelings. Bennet had plenty of people working Denver very hard, not to mention the big names [Obama, Hickenlooper, Webb, and so on] who support him.
Yes, Bennet has a lot of important support, support that would seem to me to be more helpful in the primary and general.
Would it have mattered to you if AR had been outpolled statewide?
Were you really expecting Romanoff to do worse than 50%, the only way you could be “surprised”. Why? I don’t recall ever seeing you explain why you are for Romanoff, but your skepticism and criticism of Bennet would seem to suggest you were thinking AR would do better, not worse.
More to the point- still waiting on Pueblo – but a little over 10,000 out of 20,000 polled for Romanoff statewide. That would appear to be enough support to get on the ballot, the only real meaning to caucus and assembly that I can see. But is that enough support to indicate anything about the primary? Or more importantly, electability in the general?
may tell us something useful about specific locations (more later) but this tells us nothing without the delegate counts.
Delegates vote at assembly – not caucus goers.
based on caucus polling and delegate distribution correlate in 08? (if 08 is even a reasonable comparison)
I recall Obama “winning” 60/40 or better. Didn’t the delegaet count match that?
I don’t know how it worked out in 08. I do recall the headlines but not the delegate distribution.
I do know that delegate allotments were bigger, at least in part because the state assembly had a bigger facility (and more is somehow better).
I also know that some counties allocated delegates to precincts this year based on # of registered D’s and some did it based on # Obama delegates in 08. In other words, some counties favored those precincts that turned out more for Obama over those that didn’t.
But the point is- the delegate count is al that really matters in a “nominating” path. As for headlines- AR has been doing the talk shows and press circuit today basking in his “double digit victory” (his words on Caplis & Silverman and the rejection of “Wall St by Main St”
I didn’t see double digits- he’d be just accurate to say he won by “thousands”. (11,268 – 9,221 =2,033)
But the real questions remain:
is a poll of 22,317 caucus attendees predictive of the primary voters? or the general voters?
Is the rush of “victory” in the polls going to energize his fundraising ?
The problem with having little money for staff or media is that in a all-mail primary, organization is key in order to track voters.
While volunteers were key to Obama’s success in 2008, in terms of amplifying the campaign’s efforts, they still need to be part of a campaign structure, if only so you can follow up on their GOTV efforts.
I don’t know that Romanoff’s campaign is capable of that.
This is the first year we have been allowed to do them. I can see the smaller population counties using them, but I will be surprised if any of the big 12 do.
One of the biggest problems with all-mail primaries is the fact that unaffiliated voters can affilate as a Dem or Rep on the day of the primary. Trying to accommodate this this via mail ballots will be very difficult.
I know in Denver County we are going to have a ballot issue on the primary ballot. This means every voter gets to vote on something. If we were to do that by mail, all of the U’s would be getting a ballot with just a question and then then would be a stampede by those whjo want to vote in one primary or the other. AS it is, we have a goodly number who shouw up at the polling places every primary who want to vote for candidates and do affiliate to do so.
already approved all mail for the primary.
I think they are aksing for big time foul ups. Especially Denver since we have ballot questions on primaries.
There are still a lot of women whose husbands vote for them. Hard to believe in this day and age, but it is true. I ran into this a lot when going door to door in the burbs.