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April 15, 2019 11:52 AM UTC

Bernie Tops Super Early Prez Poll

  • 26 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Emerson College, given a favorable rating for their polling in 2016 by FiveThirtyEight, is out with a new poll of the Democratic presidential primary that supplies interesting if not yet very reliable data points:

A new national Emerson poll, including 20 Democratic candidates for President, found Senator Bernie Sanders ahead of the pack with 29%, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 24%. They were followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Senator Kamala Harris at 8%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 7%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and former HUD secretary Julian Castro were at 3%. The poll was conducted April 11-14 of Democratic Primary voters with a subset of n=356, +/- 5.2%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said “while still early in the nominating process, it looks like Mayor Pete is the candidate capturing voters’ imagination; the numbers had him at 0% in mid-February, 3% in March and now at 9% in April.”

Kimball also noted that “Biden has seen his support drop. In February, he led Sanders 27% to 17%, and in March the two were tied at 26%. Now, Sanders has a 5 point lead, 29% to 24%.”

Sagging numbers for Joe Biden are consistent with bad press he’s received in recent week over his “handsy” demeanor with women–although there’s an argument that Biden’s oblivious response to the backlash has been worse than the actual offenses. Seeing Bernie Sanders pulling away in this poll is something we can’t place confidence in until we see it corroborated, but Sanders’ superior name ID and loyal grassroots following are giving him undeniable early strength. We continue to be fascinated by the attention being given to South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, but the sustainability of his upstart campaign is a question only time can answer.

As for basically everybody else in this enormous pack of candidates, including Colorado’s so-far only official hat in the proverbial ring? Nowhere to go but up is what the optimists would say.

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26 thoughts on “Bernie Tops Super Early Prez Poll”

        1. She won the popular vote, and ran a poor campaign in the upper midwest, ignored alarm bells from the folks on the ground there, and handed us president trump.  She absolutely gave it away

           

        2. No matter how bigly the dem candidate wins the popular vote in 2020, it won't matter if we don't win Michigan or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania or Floriduh in the outdated EC.

          Luckily in a WI and MI, some counties barely went for Trump, meaning a better candidate than Hillary could easily win those counties back, turning the state blue.

    1. Apparently John Kerry is waiting in the wings if Biden falters…and no one seems to be able to stop Sanders.

      Personally, Klobuchar is my #1 pick…..

      1. frown   Kerry is tanned, rested and ready.  Is Dukakis definitely out of the running? Somewhere out there they are warming up a tank for use in his campaign kickoff.

        When did we become a gerontocracy?  You look at all of them (Biden, Bernie, Kerry, Pelosi) and it looks like the characters atop Lenin's Tomb during the final days of Brezhnev.  

      2. We'll see about Sanders.  He has never been able to earn a reasonable share of the minority vote and the votes in California and Texas are months earlier this year.  His failure to appeal to minorities will be scrutinized early in the election cycle.

        1. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/bernie-sanders-democratic-party.html

          If Bernie shows up in Milwaukee with 40% of the delegates and two others have the remaining 60%, and join forces, he will scream bloody murder that the system is rigged. And come Labor Day, Donald Trump will lament how Bernie was burned by the rigged system, enticing all those Bernie Bros to once again support Donald's efforts to drain the swamp.

          That problem will be much worse if the nomination goes to a second ballot and PLEOs (i.e., the much hated superdelegates) join the voting and give the nomination to a non-socialist.

          I've never understood his failure to attract minority voters.

          All joking aside, MJ asked me the other day if I would vote for Bernie if he ended up being the Democratic nominee. I gave a flip answer about voting for a centrist third party candidate instead.

          But more seriously, never say never. I suppose it is possible I would end up voting for Bernie – especially now that he has been outed as a member of the One Percent. (I'd be more comfortable voting for him if I knew we were going to have a Republican Senate or House to keep him in line.)

      1. Actually 3 but we get your point.  The difference is Hillary wouldn't have knived the carpetbagger in the back if he had been the nominee.  I will vote for the greedy egotist if he is the nominee but will root for everyone else in the primary.  I hate the prick as much as I hate Trump.  OK maybe not that much but a lot.

  5. Any speculation on what will happen to polling now that Bernie HAS both clarified he is a Democrat (and the DNC agrees) and has put out 10 years of tax forms?

    Up? Down? Sideways?

  6. My prediction? No effect. However, Bernie is the only one in that niche of white males in the top 5 contenders whose policies we have any inkling about. The rest are a blank slate, other than vague labels like "centrist".

    And there's this:

      1. He's not in the top 5 – last I saw, he was #10 or 11?

        Anyway, the point is that the women are minimized by the press and not seen as viable candidates – the media is infatuated with the charismatic young guys: Beto and Buttigieg. Older voters like the stability of Biden or the orneriness and pioneering policies of Sanders. The tribal archetypes of the young alpha male warrior or the wise old elder still rule us. Our culture doesn't have an archetype for a wise female elder or for a young female warrior (well we do but we hate her cough-AOC-cough)

        I still like Warren for the win.

        We as a people still don't really believe a woman can win the Presidency.

         

        1. 2016 feels like just yesterday.
          I like that most 14 -17 year-old Americans from 2016 will be eligible to vote in 2020. If they show up.

          And they don't give a hoot for gender or most identity politics.

          I don't care about assessing whether a woman can win.  I know a black man cannot win. oops  I know a Catholic can't win. oops    Until she does, she cannot. When she does, of course she could.

          The press doesn't matter much – they didn't stop Tiger from winning. They didn't cause it either.  HRC was great with the press.

          But nothing matters so much as PA, MI, WI or AZ.

        3. The biggest thing holding back women is women.  My wife had a reunion with some old friends recently and one conceded she couldn't imagine a woman being president.  I've never had a man tell me he can't vote for women (though I have read that on line.). But I've had women tell me that.

          Internalizing repression sucks.  

    2. Can't think of a time when Klobuchar, Harris, Gillibrand, or Warren won a  national race.

      Can name several male candidates in this who have never lost.

      Oh- and both Presidents George Bush lost before they won.

      It's a pointless point but I guess it had to be made. 

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