President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
April 29, 2019 09:26 AM UTC
21 Comments
Well, https://magellanstrategies.com/magellan-strategies-colorado-survey-2018-unaffiliated-voters/ would say not flippable.
I'm wondering what Brad has been smoking. Seems like potent stuff.
On a serious note, anything can happen in an election that is still 18 months away. Some of it might depend on who the Dem nominee is, or what happens during both primary seasons that begin in late summer (campaigning, not voter decisions), especially with Bill Weld now running against Trump.
Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico are probably not in reach for Trump at this very early stage. Perhaps New Hampshire, but too early to tell.
One thing to bear in mind is Trump creating some sort of international "incident" to bolster his chances. Not a high probability, I hope, but something to keep in mind.
Sounds to me like somebody’s found out where the stable genius has been hiding his Propecia Fried Chicken stash??? . . .
. . . as for international incidents: well, isn’t that what
friendsthe Putins/Kims/Netanyahus/Sauds/Dutertes are for???I don't think Colorado, or New Mexico are particularly flippable for Trump at this point. New Hampshire could be, maybe Nevada. But I think in the Electoral College, Trump was near or at his ceiling in 2016, and his numbers in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin look pretty shitty right now.
I'm sure Brad Parscale sees much more and better polling data than I do, but
unnamed: I haven't seen any polling data for Iowa. Maybe you have. But I can't imagine the Ag interests in IA being happy with Trump thanks to his tariffs costing farmers much of their overseas markets.
Now that you mention it, I thought I saw something recently indicating he was under water in Iowa.
Trump was down in Iowa by a couple points, last time I saw a poll there. This far off, that doesn't mean much.
Ditto that…we have a looooong way to go….
Three theories for this –
1. Trump wants to be offensive. Or at least on the offensive, rather than simply trying to defend his 2016 states.
2. This is a classic head fake. Get Democrats to waste resourses in these states, which they will win anyway, so they have less to spend in MI, PA, and WI.
3. Trump is sending a message to Republican Senate candidates in CO, NM, and NH – don't run away from me over the next year because I will be in your state campaigning in 2020.
I tend to agree with your second point. This is early psyops. And that includes your third point, "don't put up a nobody." I still don't think Gardner is running and the trump team knows it.
I suppose anything is possible. If you are in his shoes and must name some states you think could flip your way, you aren't going to say, "We managed to get Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin…that is about as far into blue territory we could imagine getting and we'll be damned lucky to keep those three…but I'll spitball here and toss out three bluish purple states (including one, New Mexico, that currently sends an entirely blue delegation to Washington and has no Republicans currently holding statewide office) that might, by some fluke, accidentally vote for Trump."
Not this cycle. Nobody is going to be 'accidentally' voting for Trump this time around.
I suspect they are looking at the 4.9% CO victory by Hillary in 2016 and see potential. But, imagine the nonstop pro-Trump commercials if we’re considered a battleground state. Please, god. No!
I have no interest in re-hashing 2016. I’ll leave that to the far righties who are still insecure about the validity of Trump's election.
In general, Hillary wasn't a strong candidate, for many reasons. Yet Trump still lost Colorado by about 5 points (I like rounding). Now he has his nut-case record to run on. This early, the only prediction I'm inclined to make is that he won't do better than a 5% loss here, and possibly will do far worse.
On the contrary, itlduso, I hope *rump and team blow *all* their money here trying to flip our state. That's why I have mute or fast forward capability on my TV and subscribe to Sirius for my radio
I'm with Davie. Trump should put every cent he has into flipping Colorado. And every volunteer. Rallies in Joes, Swink, Paoli, everywhere two people gather in Colorado.
Forget Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. They are absolute locks for Trump.
Win Colorado and you win it all, Orange Boy!
Hey, as someone who has a spouse working for a television station, it would be GREAT to be a battleground state for the Presidency AND a Senate seat. Ad revenue supports journalism — and the rest of the media operation, too.
Memo to Parscale and Trump Campaign: April Fool's Day is the END of the month. Give it a rest.
I watched the interview.
The Trump campaign is in serious trouble with this guy taking the lead.
Wow!
Deja Vu . . .
. . . or a flashback from 2016?