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April 08, 2010 06:22 PM UTC

New Rasmussen: Hick & Romanoff slip, Bennet holds - Let the spin begin

  • 61 Comments
  • by: RockyMtnModerate

(Oh come on, this is too much fun to pass up. – promoted by Middle of the Road)

POLS UPDATE: a commenter astutely notes that the memo appears to link to month-old polling numbers in the gubernatorial race, though the same numbers are billed as “new” today. Possibly a typo, or maybe they’re unchanged–we’ll be watching for an update.

—

OK, Let the spin begin from both sides. Or, I could just save both sides some time – Bennet campaign and supporters repeat after me: “This proves that Michael’s hard work fighting for Colorado and meeting voters is paying off. This is going to be a tough race and we’re focused on delivering results for Colorado.”  Romanoff team repeat after me: “After spending millions of dollars Bennet continues to lag behind every Republican. Romanoff’s campaign is gathering momentum and we are focused on the grassroots voters not just 500 people who actually answer robocall surveys.”

 As Craig Hughes and the DeadGovs have repeatedly said when past polls came out, Rasmussen is not reliable, no polls this far out mean much and the one poll that matters between Bennet and Romanoff will be held in August. Seems Norton’s t.v. gave her a boost along with opposition to healthcare (53% of those surveyed support the state’s lawsuit against the healthcare plan & 57% favor repealing it), Bennet’s t.v. kept his support and unfavorables at about the same spot it’s been before he spent a couple million on t.v. and Romanoff, well he best figure out a way to get his message out beyond the 23k caucus & assembly people.

Hick down by 6? What the…??? Go pour some more beers and ride your bike – You can dooo it Hick!

Incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet has edged slightly closer to his strongest Republican rival, ex-Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, in Colorado’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state shows Norton earning 46% support, while Bennet captures 41% of the vote. This marks the first time in several months of surveying that Bennet has moved out of the 30s. A month ago, Norton was ahead 48% to 39%.

When pitted against Bennet’s Democratic Primary challenger, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, Norton picks up 49% of the vote and Romanoff earns 38%. Last month, the two were in a virtual tie.

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61 thoughts on “New Rasmussen: Hick & Romanoff slip, Bennet holds – Let the spin begin”

    1. A 5% evaporation of jobs for Denver citizen’s just doesn’t excite the base.

      Denver area lost 49,400 jobs in a year

      http://denver.bizjournals.com

      The Denver metro area lost 49,400 private-sector jobs — 4.78 percent of the total — in the 12 months ending in January, according to an analysis of new federal jobs data.

      snip

      The Denver-Aurora-Broomfield area had 1,033,800 workers in the private sector in January 2009, and 12 months later it had 984,400, Thomas’ analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicates.

      Denver’s total private-sector job loss over the 12-month span ranked 16th highest among the nation’s top 100 metro areas, Thomas reported.

  3. This confirms what I have been saying all along. Statewide, a candidate that comes off as “too Denver” can’t win. There is a huge cultural divide in this state between urban Dems (mostly progressive) and rural Dems who lean moderate. This is going to be a big challenge for Hick, as it would be for Andrew Romanoff.

    1. While Sen. Bennet did well in a number of Western Slope Dem caucuses I cannot imagine he is seen as ‘less Denver’ than Romanoff.  They are both pretty Denver, trust me.

      Much of the Democratic base in Western CO is quite progressive, the biggest gripe I hear out here about Hick is his weak position on the new oil and gas regs–and such matters–not that he’s ‘too Denver.’

      1. Hick has a much tougher road ahead than a lot of people would like to believe.  I think he can do it, but this isn’t going to be the cakewalk a lot of people on here seem to think it is.

        Bennet did well in Mesa county at caucus, but like the rest of the state his support slipped between then and assembly.  Both camps will have their work cut out for them for the primary.

        1. That’s the Romanoff spin and it’s some spin. Both candidates have more support after assemblies than they did in the caucus poll. The number of uncommitted delegates has dropped.

      2. Romanoff and Bennet are tied as far as their perceived front range focus are concerned. And the thing that seems to be the topic of discussion about Hick is his continued reliance on the story he gets from his friends at the Denver Chamber of Commerce and the Denver Petroleum Club.

        He took a tour w/ WCC in Garfield County last week and western slopers will continue to educate him on the realities of life in the gaspatch. It is hard to believe that your friends and golfing buddies would lie to you, but Hick will eventually learn the same things Governor Ritter learned. He gets a very one-sided message from the people in the Republic tower.

        In a larger sense, there is great and growing concern on the western slope that the state government is becoming more Denver-centric. The recent handling of negotiations around HB1365 (Clean Air/Clean Jobs) and the push to rush the consideration of HB1363 (Biogenic gas stimulation).

        Mayor Hickenlooper, and for that matter, Governor Ritter, can signal western slope residents that they haven’t been abandoned by refusing to support the industrys’ desire to continue burying polluted pit-liners on wellsites. The COGCC, at the energy companies’ request, will soon consider repeal of rule 905. It is a very bad idea.

         

      3. The Democratic base of the Western Slope remains western Democrat, which means lunch-bucket Dems, not progressive.

        You need to pull your head out of Mesa and Garfield counties and get to know Dems in other Western Slope counties. Oil and gas is not a big issue in many of them.

        Lunch-bucket Dems want jobs, and that’s why Hick appeals to them. He’s actually created jobs, whereas all Scooter has done is spin rhetoric.

        1. Take La Plata, San Miguel, Ouray, Pitkin–and to a lesser degree Gunnison, for example.  Strongholds in Garfield would include both Glenwood Springs–a population center, and Carbondale.  In Delta, Dem hotspots would be the Northfork, which I think is more progressive Dem, as I think the other instances I cited are.  I didn’t say all, or even most, I said much.    

    1. Don’t totally disagree – Romanoff does need to find a way to connect with the 43% who were with Bennet ar caucus (or whatever that number is after state) but by and large his message has gotten to them. My point was that he needs to find a way to repeatedly get his message to 250-300k primary voters if he hopes to be competitive. Ideally on tv & radio but could be mix of that and a massive ground operation – we will see in our neighborhoods & on tv if he can do that or not.

      1. What message?

        no PAC money, a legislative track record, and single payer support – or is there something else I missed?

        250-300?

        800k registered D’s  – can’t we at least aim for 50% turnout?

        1. Everybody seems to want to point to 2004 as a comparison to this race.  In 2004, the turnout for the Dem Senate primary was 237,000.  250k-300k seems like a pretty good estimate.

            1. is boosted by Tea Party folk who 1) push the GOP primary into crazy territory that will turn off unaffiliated voters in the fall or 2) feel their voices weren’t heard and aren’t willing to hold their noses to vote for Norton or McInnis.

              For a heavy Republican primary turnout to translate to general election turnout, the new primary voters will have to stay energized, but if there’s a reason for them to be energized that will mean their candidates are at odds with mainstream Colorado voters.

              So the best scenario for Republicans is if their primary turnout is relatively low, so their candidates can campaign to the middle.

    1. it’s still valid to compare trends from Ras poll to Ras poll, but this far out from a general election, head-to-heads mean very little.

          2. Despite what partisans on both sides think, Colorado voters don’t actually like politicians on the attack, even if they are aligned with the positions of the politician.

            That’s not to say negative ads don’t work–they do. By suppressing the turnout of the other side. But they don’t boost the image of the attacker.

  6. Despite the fact that Ras says “New numbers show former Republican Congressman Scott McInnis with 48% support to Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper’s 42%.” in their release on the senate poll, it actually links to the March 8 numbers.

    Not sure if that means the new numbers are the same as the old numbers, or if they just failed to cut that graf from the release when they updated the Senate page for April. Guessing it’s the second case.

  7. It’s why you’re earning the big bucks. Fantastic way to spin your candidate who prior to caucus was within margin of error (2 points) and is now down by 11 when matched up against Norton. 9 points in one month. Ouch.

    http://blogs.denverpost.com/th…

    Then again, how else can the campaign respond? There’s not much positive here to work with. And Romjue certainly can’t denounce Rasmussen methodology since he used it as the main reason to donate to Andrew prior to caucus.

    Dear xxx,

    Andrew Romanoff is Colorado’s best choice for fixing the broken system in Washington and a new poll today shows he is the only candidate that can hold the seat for Democrats in November. Andrew’s numbers continue to climb and the poll shows he is now in a virtual tie with the leading Republican contender according to Rasmussen Reports.

    While Andrew has been traveling the state talking to voters, you’ve been working hard — on the phones, walking in your neighborhood, speaking at local meetings and talking to your friends, and this work is paying off. The momentum is all Romanoff.

    But this is no time to rest! The March 16 caucuses are just 11 days away and we need your help to show support for Andrew in every county across the state. Can you give $25 or $50 today to help keep the momentum going?  Your contribution today will help us continue to contact voters across Colorado and send a strong message at the caucuses.

    Bill Romjue

    Campaign Manager

    Romanoff for Colorado

    Well, this is what you reap when you dance with the devil.

    1. “He’s been saying he’s the most electable,” said Bennet campaign spokesman Trevor Kincaid. “This poll obviously show’s that’s not true. Michael has the best chance to win statewide.” The Rasmussen poll summary noted Romanoff had been in a virtual tie with Norton in their previous tally.

      http://blogs.denverpost.com/th…

      This sounds exactly right.

    2. The comment about the Fav vs. Unfav numbers was ridiculous. They said that Bennet’s unfavorable rating was “very high” at 41% when Romanoff is just at 39%. Also, the +/- between the two are +4 for Bennet and 0 for Romanoff.

      It’s the MFing tilt ‘o whirl.

  8. Only an idiot would believe a Rasmussen poll. You’ll note that Dailykos posts Rasmussen results only to mock them.

    I didn’t even read this post after the word “Rasmussen”.

  10. Maybe Bennet’s TV ads which I think are terrible may not be so bad after all. His positive numbers seem to be on the rise.

    Ali Hassan still looks like he is trying out for the Ratzo part played by Dustin Hoffman in the Midnight Cowboy.  Or, maybe they are going to remake Boogie Nights with Ali in the starring role?

    1. inspired bs about how Rassmussen had soemthing useful to say 6 weeks ago, but now Rass is just so much bs?

      Nothing?

      Yeah- it’s what I expected.

      Don’t bother reposting the campaign spin – I’m on their email list too.

        1. to spin the numbers from this poll.

          And considering he wrote not one but two diaries touting the numbers from Rasmussen, I’m guessing he won’t be along any time soon to defend this one.

          StrykerK2

          Condutrix

          JO

          Sharon Hanson

          thegreatandpowerfuloz

          Otoole

          Peter Fisk

          JeffcoTrueBlue

          dfarrah

          Did they all fall off our flat earth on the same day?

          Man, gang, where’s the love? With friends like you…

            1. responds to Ras poll in an interview Friday morning with Michael Roberts at The Latest Word:

              “The Romanoff campaign was happy when we were doing well in the Rasmussen poll, and we said so, so I’m not going to discount it,” he allows. “But it is only one poll, and the real test comes tomorrow, when Democratic voters are being asked who they support at the county assemblies.”

                1. the previous Rasmussen poll. Should have included the leading paragraph, which said this was Toda responding to the new poll in light of the campaign’s celebration of the previous one.

                  1. I got it, cause that’s the one that mattered.

                    And he’s wrong – the real test comes in July and Aug when D voters are actually voting.

                    Or maybe 4.20 when we find out if the campaign is capable of budgeting for a US Senate campaign, or is still raising just enough to run a decent House campaign.

  12. Eighty hours every week all week  attacking Obama on LOCAL talk radio..finally all that work pays off…

    Take a bow, danny and craig and Mikey Brown (u2 gunny) and mikey rosen and johnny caldera…..

    Horray for the birthers and the tea partyers…

    Thanks to the american public, all this free time on local talk radio means that the repubs do NOT have to spend money to get their message out…

    And, I thought that democracy and free speech were dead…

    Carry on….dems…just plug in those Ipods…or put your fingers in your ears and don’t anyone wake Patti Waak.

    1. That is EIGHTY hours a week of LOCAL political talk radio, on KOA and KHOW.  It does not count the 15 hours a week of Rushbo or the 15 hours a week of Glenn Beck, or the countless hours of conservative talk radio (Hannity, etc.) on lesser radio stations whose broadcast range is not as good as those of KOA and KHOW.

      Thank god that patti et.al. doesn’t listen to the radio or the dems might be a tiny bit depressed….they only listen to each other….

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