President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
May 23, 2010 07:15 AM UTC
19 Comments
It’s sort of a mirror of NY-23. But given where this District is, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see it go back in November.
That’s what my mom got against Akaka. The question will be, can he build on that over 5 months in D.C. And will the Republican party let him build on that. I think an additional 10% is a lot, but not totally impossible.
There wasn’t a single poll that predicted Case would come in third. And Djou didn’t even break 40%. Cologeek is right–chances are damn good this goes back to Dems hands in November. In fact, I’ll happily bet you a bottle of red win on it.
I think Djou has a prayer – but he’s going to need God’s undivided attention.
Or is he 180 degrees off?
You’re right. No wonder I flunked math and geometry and algebra and…
It’s really fucking unbecoming. I mean…shit, man! God damn!
No email from him to supporters and no mention on his website about the results. I’m sure this was a shock (polls had Case right behind Djou) but no response yet pretty much means he’s not continuing.
was by Merriman River Group and they had him tied with Hanabusa at 25% and down 14 points to Djou.
They had Djou winning at 39.5% so they were pretty dead on.
if the poll had Djou at 39.5% with about 10% undecided, then either last-minute deciders went REALLY badly, or the poll overstated his support by a fair margin. The persistence of that 39.5 number is an interesting coincidence… but that’s about all.
It’s probably not too unthinkable that his 39.5% was relatively solid and the undecideds were just trying to figure out who (not Djou) to vote for. There were something like 14 candidates on the ballot including Djou and the two major Democratic contenders.
it doesn’t bode well for Djou in November
We were the pollster on the last poll (Merriman River). If you go to civilbeat.com, you can find our poll memo from that survey where we commented that Djou had maxxed out and that we were projecting Hanabusa to finish second. The reasons for those projections were two-fold. First, the undecideds were almost exclusively choosing between Case and Hanabusa, witnessed by Obama’s strong favorability among the undecided. Second, Japanese-Americans are generally slightly less likely to provide demographic information or take a survey. They were Hanabusa’s strongest group, which is why we projected her to outfinish Case in the May 22 count.
Matt
That does seem to be the max for a Republican in Hawaii – except that they elected Lingle twice.
Huh.
And if the national party hadn’t intervened and endorsed him over the choice of the local party, a Democrat would have won this seat?
Huh.
He’s that kind of guy.
Hanabusa seems to have a clear lead among fired-up Dems, and those are the people who will be coming out for the primary.
The turnout was higher than expected for this special election, and Hanabusa’s numbers far exceeded the polls; my read of that is that Hanabusa especially was able to motivate Dems to come out to try and keep the seat for Dems over the next 6 months. With both she and Case in the race, though, it was pretty much doomed to failure; the district’s partisan, but not that partisan.
If you’re a union member and you hadn’t voted in the last week, they would have someone drive over and “offer” to take your ballot in. Every bit of the Democratic machine was in full effort mode to bring Hanabusa above Case.
Case finally sent out an email to everyone and it was silent on if he’ll run in the upcoming primary. My guess is that he’s strongly considering dropping out.
But if he does run, you can ask for either ballot in the primary. With a close primary for both Governor and CD-1, most independents and a good chunk of Republicans will vote in the Democratic primary – and those voters tend to be a bit more conservative and anti-machine.
So… Who knows…