The Denver Post’s political duo Justin Wingerter and Nic Garcia report, and we’re obliged to take note:
State Democratic insiders agree that Hickenlooper would be a formidable candidate against Gardner, but a majority of the 11 Democratic candidates already in the field want Hickenlooper to know they won’t be rolling over if he decides to run for the Senate.
“He has his aspirations, and we can’t control what he does, but what I’m concerned about is Washington insiders interfering with Colorado voters in their selection of a Democratic nominee,” [Sen. Angela] Williams said in an interview Thursday morning, hours before Hickenlooper ended his presidential run. “I believe women and people of color deserve a voice in the United States Senate.”
“He’ll have a fight on his hands,” Williams added. “That’s what I believe.” She accused Hickenlooper of attacking “the progressive values of women and people of color on issues like health care reform” during his ill-fated run for president.
In the wake of yesterday’s announcement that former Gov. John Hickenlooper would end his presidential campaign and give “serious thought” to running for the U.S. Senate against Sen. Cory Gardner in 2020, at least three Democrats already running for the seat have suggested they won’t be peremptorily driven from the race if Hickenlooper gets in. Michael Johnston in particular has a sufficient war chest on hand with which to fight on, and at the end of the day nobody can force any declared candidate to pull out.
No person can do that, but reality has a way of working itself out.
We have been clear in this space that based on every available data point, including corroborative polling data and years of experience observing the trends and power centers in Colorado politics, John Hickenlooper as a candidate for the U.S. Senate would be orders of magnitude stronger than anyone else presently in the race for the Democratic nomination. A recent poll showing Hickenlooper’s name ID and persistent favorability crushing his Democratic rivals by 51 points is hotly disputed by supporters of other candidates, but it sensibly reflects the built-in advantage of a popular two-term governor against a primary field consisting mostly of current and former state lawmakers. Another recent poll showing Hickenlooper handily defeating Sen. Cory Gardner in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, though we don’t doubt other candidates can also compete well, is not an expression of anyone’s bias. It’s reality.
With that said, conventional wisdom has been upset before. All of the factors that we have identified as giving Hickenlooper the upper hand in a Democratic primary will need to be proven out once again. If our analysis is correct that Hickenlooper will dominate if he enters the Democratic primary and quickly relegate opposing campaigns to minor status, that prediction will be borne out by events.
We’re just the messenger, but feel free to prove us wrong–if you can.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
BY: ParkHill
IN: Monday Open Thread
BY: ParkHill
IN: Monday Open Thread
BY: ParkHill
IN: Monday Open Thread
BY: ParkHill
IN: Monday Open Thread
BY: DavidThi808
IN: Monday Open Thread
BY: 2Jung2Die
IN: Hick Smacks Down Even More Straight-Up Lying From Amendment 80 Campaign
BY: cgrandits
IN: Here’s What YOU Think is Happening in Colorado’s Tightest Congressional Races
BY: joe_burly
IN: Monday Open Thread
BY: Lauren Boebert is a Worthless POS
IN: Monday Open Thread
BY: Chickenheed
IN: Monday Open Thread
Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!
Hops & Change.
Nicely done, davebarnes.
I'm wondering if there will be a new Hickenlooper commercial trying to create a viral sensation in opposition to Gardner. Maybe a variation on one of these?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riH5EsGcmTw
I see that picture of Hick, and I want to watch a few episodes of Night Court.
It might not be a bad thing for Hick to get into shape with a couple of primary opponents. Ken Salazar had Mike Miles and it never hurt him. Jared Polis had three (or more accurately two and half) serious primary opponents and still managed to eek out a 55%-45% win over Walker Stapleton.
I cannot picture Madden, Romanoff or Williams going away so pissed off after the primary election that any of the three allow Gardner to be re-elected.
"IF he enters the race." Big IF
Very big indeed, GG.
A more realistic take on Hick's Senate chances can be inferred from Morning Consult's take: Hick is at 41% favorability rating overall with Colorado voters. Most think he was an OK, but not a great, governor. We remember that he often wavered or outright balked on his support for cannabis reform, for oil and gas regulation, for civil rights legislation, and more.
538's Nathaniel Rakich is outright skeptical about the validity of the PPP poll showing Hick dominating the Senate race.
As far as the much-vaunted (but invisible) poll showing Hick beating all Senate rivals by 51%, I see that the Post's Justin Wingerter is no longer citing the invisible Garin-Hart-White poll in his newest pieces on the Senate race; nor did Wingerter respond to my inquiries about the poll. There is no Garin Hart White Colorado Senate poll on 538's "latest polls" page; and there is no such poll featured on Hart Research's site. Mr. Garin also did not respond to my inquiries.
My guess is that, if it existed at all, it was an internal poll by an organization of Hickenlooper supporters, and they don't want to admit that, since it seems less reliable.
For someone who has failed at a Presidential bid, and who has said he doesn't want the Senate job, and wouldn't be very good at it, the consolation prize is that at least 41% of Coloradans like him and recognize his name. That doesn't mean that he would have an overwhelming edge in a Senate campaign.
You just can't let it go, can you, MJ? 41 pct favorable is totallydifferent than 41 pct knowing who you are. I doubt if any of your gaggle of left favorites hits 2 pct recognition.
For someone who has failed at a Presidential bid, and who has said he doesn't want the Senate job, and wouldn't be very good at it, the consolation prize is that at least 41% of Coloradans like him and recognize his name.
And yet he still maintains a 50% lead over his closest putative primary opponent. What does that say about your pet candidates….
Hick at his worst beats any of them at their best.
I have to admit, you seem to be genuinely in the tank for the great and powerful Hick.
But that kind of hyperbole will out you as a relative…or an oil and gas guy.
I'm in the tank too Duke. Knew him personally in the past when he was a geologist. Great guy. I'll vote for him or Andrew in the primary.
um, yeah
Because campaigns are about ideas and policy and the best ideas and most popular policies are what win. Almost everytime.
What I would rather talk about is how the current Senator won his primary and generla back when. No one knew he was running until just before … and then the filed cleared (for all practical purposes) and then he had some pictures with windmills and teeth and bam! victory.
Who is it going to be this cycle? Elway? Manning?
https://deadspin.com/why-your-team-sucks-2019-denver-broncos-1836907091
Senator.
I mean he's gotta wonder.
Hick could win based on Unaffiliated primary voters; he's the most "independent" of the major Dems possibly running. Or he could opt for a Cabinet seat where he can be more executive…
But don't you know, PR…..
There are no unaffiliateds remaining. There are only White Supremacist Nazis and Millennial Bolsheviks.
We are starting to resemble Spain circa 1935.
I've been wondering when Trump would start wearing the sacred heart, R&R.
I thought that said cabernet seat.
He might like that
Here's a well-written piece from Westword today. You all know my leanings in this race but like everyone else will vote blue no matter who (unless it's Joni Ernst)
(MSNBC reported last night that Mrs. Hops has maxed out to Dan Baer).
Hickenlooper Could Beat Gardner in 2020 — and So Could Everyone Else
Your link is incorrect, and showed me a picture of one of my patients that I didn't want to see.
Wow. That's weird. I opened up my tab with the story – and sure enough the url is a link to your patient! Here's the right one:
https://www.westword.com/news/hickenlooper-could-beat-gardner-in-2020-and-so-could-everyone-else-11449934
Try this one
Instead of psycho out, Dems should be psyched up to show Gardner the door along with Trump and keep Colorado on the progressive path. We love leading the nation towards a renewable economy and sensible pot regulations.
On the other hand, . . .
. . . how’re we ever gonna’ miss you . . . ?