President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
September 04, 2019 03:16 PM UTC
19 Comments
What is a primary for if not to introduce yourself to voters and convince them why you're the best candidate?
Why a primary?
Sometimes it is to introduce an idea into the campaign.
Sometimes it is to invite some forgotten slice of the population into the process, developing voters and competence for a future candidate.
But yeah, many people get into a race thinking there is some chance of introducing themselves and developing a winning coalition.
In this case, it appears to be wanting to introduce yourself for some other statewide run, as I don't think I've ever seen a 60% share (and 50% lead) dissipate in a multi-candidate race. Anyone here have a precedent for such a loss?
Any political aspirant has a healthy ego. For the Senate, it's a big ego accompanied by seeing oneself in a mirror with a senator looking back.
I couldn't find the original poll numbers for Crowley over Ocasio-Cortez, but I imagine those were similar. He was still +36 three weeks before the primary. Joe Lieberman was 46 points up over Ned Lamont.
You're going to see Hick’s purported 60% share of Dems dissipate pretty quickly at the state Democratic assembly on April 18 next year, because it's mostly made of smoke and wishful thinking right now. It's yet another push poll by the 314 Action Psuedo-Science Hickuppers.
Dio predicted it, a couple of weeks ago.
Here's what I predict state assembly delegate results will be, based on seeing most of the candidates campaigning over the last 6 months, and talking with party officials:
Hickenlooper : ~40%. This will not give him the 70% he needs to automatically be the Democratic nominee, (with no other candidate getting at least 15%), and it is also nowhere near what these rose-colored polls have been showing for him, but it is realistic considering he's dealing with some pretty pissed-off party activists who have been attending and donating to other Senate candidates for months now, while Hick was still saying that he didn't think he was cut out to be a Senator, and didn't really want the job. But 40% will get him on the ballot. Or, he might skip the assembly process, not wanting to make a sorry showing, and petition on. He's got the $$ to do it with bells on.
Romanoff: ~ 15-20% This will also be enough to get him on the primary ballot for June, but again will not be a definitive "win".
Williams or Madden: 15% These two Senators have approximately equal legislative and leadership experience, (both were House caucus leaders), and represent important Democratic constituencies. I'd like to see them both make the ballot, but I think probably only one will.
The remaining 15-30% will be divided up between the single digit no-legislative experience candidates running now: (Baer, Bray, Ferrigno-Warren, Garcia, Spaulding, Walsh, Zornio) Of those, Garcia or Spaulding or Baer could break out if there are debates or they have a good ground campaign. Baer has the money to pay canvassers and petition on, but he just hasn't mounted much of a campaign to date. Walsh is a high-powered voter rights lawyer endorsed by Eric Holder, and he looks like a Senator out of central casting, and he has been campaigning but not gaining ground. I like Lorena Garcia and Stephany Spaulding a lot, but unless they are lining up delegates now, I don't think that they'll make that 15% threshold to be on the primary ballot.
To sum up, John in Denver, the real show starts next year, at the state assembly in April. And then statewide, the voters will choose from those still standing in June, likely Hickup, Romanoff, Madden, and Williams. Any one of them could beat Gardner, and any one of them would represent us better than Gardner.
The timeline presented by the Green papers and a pdf from Sec State is:
March 3, 2020 – April – Presidential primary by mail ballot
March 7, 2020 Precinct caucuses. This is where the single-digit candidates need to get their people lined up, at the lowest grassroots levels to go to the state assembly.
County and District assemblies – various times in between 3/7 and 4/17
State Assembly: Saturday, April 18 This is the Colorado Democratic State Assembly; this body determines which candidates will be on the primary ballot, unless candidates skip assembly and petition on.
June 30, 2020 primary election by mail ballot
Unless the rules have changed, MJ, you are badly mistaken in your description of the process that will nominate a Senator. You need 30 percent of the delegates to make the ballot. You are right that 70 percent makes you the nominee, but only because that ensures no one else makes it.
But the folks you talk about getting on with 15 or 20 percent, won't make it. Hick at 40, Andrew 25, Madden 20, Williams 15 would mean only hick on the ballot–the only one to make the 30 pct qualifier.
And the four-way primary you predict coming out of the convention would take 120 percent of the delegate vote.
It is, of course, theoretically possible to get three nominees with more than 30 pct but highly unlikely. You may have been confused because it is also possible to petition on to the ballot, which can yield a three person race like the 2016 Kennedy, Polis, Johnston race.
I think your confusion on the 15 pct stems from the presidential primary. Those delegates to the national convention are pro rated, but you must get 15 percent to get a share. If, say Buttagieg got 25 percent and Klobuchar 20 pct with the rest getting 14 pct or less, then Buttagieg and Klobuchar would split the delegates in a 5/4 ratio.
But that's just in the presidential primary. To be nominated for the U.S. Senate you need 30 percent or more at the convention. If your calculations are right, Hick wins outright. That's why, in all probability, most minor candidates will drop out.
If Hick has a primary opponent, it's probably by the petition route. But that costs a lot of money and with Johnston withdrawing, I just don't see a rival to hick making the ballot, unless Madden and Romanoff team up behind Romo.
. As to Williams, with 2 percent in the latest poll, she’s just not a factor. BTW, you are wrong to say Williams and Madden were “both senators.” Madden was House Majority Leader, not a senator.
Information about the Senate primary /caucus process in Colorado is sourced from Democratic party officials. Rather than engage in pointless bickering with you, I'll let party folks confirm it.
I'm not "confused" on the 15% required at state assembly to get onto the June primary ballot. I did leave out a step – the 15% at assembly allows candidates to petition on the June ballot. If they don’t go through assembly, they can still petition on. It’s expensive, either way.
40 + 15-20 + 15 + 15 = 85-90%. Check your math. It’s unlikely, but possible, to have a four person primary.
Perhaps the rules have changed since you last participated at assembly. You are, however, entitled to your opinions.
Okay, you're too proud to admit you made a mistake. But you made a mistake. Your tortuous predictions, if realized, put only Hickenlooper on the ballot from the convention.
it's not a matter of "bickering.". Your predictions put only Hick on the ballot unless three of the minor candidates somehow petition on.
Math is hard.
You were also wrong to claim that 7 0 percent would make Hick the automatic candidate . Not if your face-saving theory that hordes of rivals would petition on materializes.
Finally you were flat out wrong to claim Madden and Williams were both senators.
You are definitel y entitled to your opinions. You are not entitled to just make up your own facts.
I was told these things by a state party official in a private email, from a closed group, which I am not at liberty to quote without permission.
I'm in the process of confirming them now. When I can get someone to confirm on the record, I'll be happy to do that.
By the way, thanks for confirming yourself that Senator Angela Williams is even more qualified than Representative Alice Madden. Williams, like Madden, was caucus Chair in the House. But Williams, unlike Madden, is a sitting Senator. Unlike Madden, Williams has never lost an election.
That's a "correction" from you I'm happy to accept.
well… whichever source – it wouldn't be the first time, or last that anyone is confounded by the 2020 Democratice Delegate Selection Plan. I read it more than once – and I can't say how it works inplain English
Madco, the delegate selection plan you are talking about is, I presume, for the national convention. What fuzzy fruit screwed up was the rules for the state convention.
No, Williams is not"more qualified. ". She was only caucus chairman, which ranks below Senate President and majority leader .
Madden was majority leader, which ranks only behind speaker of the house.
. Majority leader outranks caucus chair.
You made a mistake, a minor one, in thinking both women were se ators. Just admit it and move on, don’t double down by thinking the relatively minor role of caucus chairman is as important as majority leader.>
The majority leader outranks the caucus chair.
And it takes 30 percent to make the ballot at the convention. If you intend to petition on, you're better off not going through the convention because of the risk that you fall below 15 percent. If you don't go through the convention, you can just petition on. But it is expensive and more of an ego trip than a campaign.
Ah, Hick is surging! For someone who is reviled by so many – at least, in here – he is off to a good start among normal people.
I'm not sure how much campaign cash it's going to take to overcome this ad but it was a pinned tweet recently on the @cologop page. I mean, all Gardner is trying to do is take away our health care, gut the EPA, effectively ignore the climate crisis, punt on background checks and bankrupt the Treasury.
You forgot MY favorite Gardner desire: thwart the North Korean threats while simultaneously allowing his party's *resident to have a love affair with North Korea's Glorious Leader.
And I’m not certain how important the tweet could be — published Aug. 29, it has
13 Retweets
24 Likes
11 people talking about it.
And three who care dip-squat!
Giddy-up! Warp speed!!
Everybody…