President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
July 13, 2010 08:03 PM UTC
7 Comments
Gardner is running significantly ahead of where Markey was at this same point in 2008. And of course, Markey is running well ahead of where Musgrave was at this point 2 years ago. There’s a ton of money that’s going to flow into this race, on both sides. The 2008 election was the most expensive ever in CO-04, with the candidates raising a combined $5.5 million and independent groups pumping in another $4.5 million. That $5.5 million for candidates will get shattered this year; I expect there will also be a lot of independent money on both sides.
It’s also good to get good info from the hinterlands….. 🙂
as much independent money? There doesn’t seem to be the anti-Musgrave fervor there was in 2008, which drove a lot of that spending, both offensively and defensively.
I’ve poked around with Karl Rove, SEIU, U.S. Chamber, others to get a feel for this. No one is tipping their hand. But here’s my WAG:
Labor will be very active for Markey. SEIU and AFSCME alone have promised to pump $100 million in to the midterms. On the other side, GOP-connected groups are said to be ready with $200 million. Some of that money, on both sides, will make its way into the 4th. How much is the question.
As you noted, much of the independent spending in 2008 was aimed at a highly controversial incumbent. No Republican would even begin to suggest Markey inspires the same kind of antipathy in their ranks that Musgrave inspired for the Dems. One of the great unknowns is what will Pat Stryker’s role be in 2010. She spent more than $800K on 527 activity in the 4th in 2006. It’s impossible to know what she did in 2008 because the money came through c4s, which are untraceable. Stryker has shown a willingness to spend money to change the status quo; will she spend to protect the status quo she helped create?
That’s a big question, and one imagines Gardner’s allies will respond in kind. Stryker has sure been quiet this year. Either she’s inventing the next big under-the-radar strategy or feels she’s done her job (of course there are other alternatives and increments between those too). But it’ll be interesting if the story of Colorado 2010 reveals things we have no idea are going on during the election.
Because this is the Republican’s best chance to take Markey out. Gardner is a good candidate and she only has one term. Another 2 years and she’ll be even stronger and have even more votes due to incumbency.
So it’s now or never. And the Dems will counter because this is when they determine if they’ll hold this seat as long as Markey wants it.