President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
August 03, 2010 05:17 PM UTC
30 Comments
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very, very close. Less than 4 points….
a little under 4.
Let’s get some numbers going and see how the average compares after the primary.
5 pts.
but I’ll go closer. Romanoff-51 Bennet-49. I think it will be tight.
I only want the over/under.
and can’t turn it off.
That is, a three point margin.
the margin of error? So a dead heat?
It’s an “under.” The margin of error is for polls. If the bookie sets the over/under at four, and you guess three, you’re betting the “under.” If you guess 4.1, you bet the “over”
Normally the over/under is not an integer, because in sports the scores are integer numbers and the bookie wants to avoid a “push.” But in an election, the margin is rarely an integer. I just pulled “4” out of my ass.
I think you should consider asking a similar question in the Republican race concerning how many Republicans just skip over the Governor primary but still vote between Buck and Norton.
But I have no idea what to pull out of my behind for an over/under in MacMaes undervotes.
54-46 – give me the over
Perhaps I missed it, but one source of “facts” on the under/over factor might be found in the 7/27 Rasmussen poll release, which said:
I seem to recall earlier discussions in which BennetPols opined that the “very” factor was the best predictor of outcomes.
Based on a right-leaning poll that’s a whole week old now, PACman has a net minus 20 in the “very favorable/very unfavorable” category, versus Romanoff’s net minus 1. Does that mean a 19-point margin for Romanoff? Seems unlikely, but theoretically 1 vote is all it takes…as PACman knows from experience. Has Ritter voted yet?
And one more broke my “No Shills” request.
Guess who all three support?
They show their true colors, don’t they?
I’m taking the under.
You can’t shut the shills up even for a single post.
There’s no point in trying to have fun instead of bashing each other.
That requires both sides to play nice. Not possible with the Radical Romies.
I’ll stick with it
Can anyone say “recount”? (And, that’s when you can expect things to start getting really ugly.)
an under, right?
Hell I don’t know, I’ve never associated with a flock(?) of bookies before.
Get ready to lawyer-up boys!
It’s really the only way else that this could get uglier.
(Call it inevitable, call it Karma, call it what you will, I’m just saying that until now the Dems have had it too good this year. So, what else could these two guys possibly do at this point to snatch defeat from the jaws of inevitable victory in November?)
Romanoff- 52%
Bennet- 48%
I think it will be very close, judging by the polls and the harsh campaigning on both sides.
I could be wrong, we’ll see next Tuesday. =)
And one of the candidates is sliding fast because of a vote against giving seniors and disabled folks on Social Security, and veterans with profound service connected disabilities a check for a mere $250 to help offset the decision not to provide COLAs in 2010.
This is one of those viral issues that people talk about over the kitchen table, at water coolers, at church, in garages, etc. And it’s building as voters turn in their ballots.
So I see the opponent coming in at 5 points or more above the guy that shot himself in the foot with this issue affecting a huge segment of Colorado’s most likely voters.