August 08, 2010 11:57 PM UTC

Magic 8-ball sez: tomorrow's PPP poll: intentionally wrong

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• by: StrykerK2

Some of you reading this are going to ask how I know the following.  What I have to say is this: perhaps some kids over at the DSCC weren’t too happy with their forced servitude working a DNC phone bank for Bennet all weekend, and decided to share some fun facts.

PPP, the polling firm of the DSCC, is going to release a new poll tomorrow.  Guess what it will say?  Bennet up on Romanoff by (probably) 5 points — just outside the margin or error.

How did they reach this result?  By weighting their poll differently than what they actually believe the voting population will look like.

It’s actually pretty easy — follow along 🙂

We all know Bennet sent out mailer after mailer to older voters claiming that Andrew Romanoff wants to privatize their social security (I’m less sure, but I think it also said he hates their grandkids and doesn’t use the blanket they sent him).  

Result?  Fairly effective — Bennet spooked older voters into being wary of Romanoff.

We also know that Bennet is hitting certain population centers far more than others.  Mostly abandoning Denver, he’s trying to win based on Boulder (to some extent), Grand Junction (to a greater extent) and a few other spots.

So, if you want to produce a poll showing Bennet up, what do you do?  You overweight Bennet friendly populations.  The poll will show a disproportionate amount of older voters (it’s a huge group already) and “geotilt” it to minimize Denver and maximize other areas.

The race is close — almost no one is saying otherwise.  Therefore, it doesn’t actually take much to skew a poll like this — an extra percentage of 65+ voters here, a few less “expected” voters in Denver there, and voila! you have a poll that shows what you want.

This is, of course, simply a prediction.  I hope I’m wrong and the DSCC isn’t going to try and lie to the national media and Colorado voters about what the situation looks like.

What’s that you say?  They’ve done it before?  They release polls simply for political gain of Michael Bennet?  By God you’re right!  Here’s a few examples:

Remember when the DSCC’s firm PPP released a poll right before caucus?

Or right before the state assembly?

The analysis of those polls (provided by them of course) would include language such as:

“In Colorado the Democratic primary was supposed to be competitive and the GOP one a foregone conclusion,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it seems like the opposite of that is happening. Bennet has expanded his lead while Buck and Norton are headed for a close one.”

Why would they want that out there?  Well to demoralize Romanoff support of course.  If you’re thinking of caucusing for Romanoff, or spending your day off in Broomfield at assembly for Romanoff, and you see a poll that shows he hasn’t got a chance in hell, well you just might decide to do something else with your day instead.

The problem, of course, is that it didn’t work and independent pollsters show that this race is within the margin, and Romanoff might actually be a few points up.

So if that poll does come out tomorrow, ask to see the weighting — and then ask why it was weighted like it was.

PS — why weight it like this?  Because Bennet needs those late voters to break for him.  Voters like to pick a winner.  If John Q Public is sitting at home thinking of dropping off his ballot, and Ron Zappolo comes on the TV to with a report like “Major polling firm says that despite Romanoff’s attacks, Bennet will probably prevail” that person is more likely to actually fill out their ballot.  Simple psychology.