CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
August 19, 2010 12:06 AM UTC
106 Comments
Governor-elect Hickenlooper will take the high road while 527s do his dirty work. That will make it easier for him to work with the GOP minority in the House and Senate.
Business groups have endorsed Joe Rice, a liberal Democrat in Greenwood Village, according to Lynn Bartels. To me, that means most of the GOP’s candidates are toast because the party’s contributors aren’t pulling together the way the Democrats are.
You can do your victory dance now, I’m afraid.
Your point?
In the ad, Hick promises that he won’t run negative ads. That will appeal to a lot of voters.
Meanwhile, well-funded groups that are outside of his control will trash Maes and Tancredo until it’s clear that they’re toast.
At the same time, I doubt that outside groups will spend much money on Maes because he’s burnt toast. And with Maes in the contest, Tancredo won’t get much 527 money because there is only a small chance that he can beat Hick in a 3-way race.
Your point? Hickenlooper can only be held responsible for what Hickenlooper does.
Ralphie has worked on campaigns in which the 527s have come in and run slime ads that were decidedly NOT the candidate’s message.
You can’t judge the candidate by the 527 ads, only by what the candidate himself runs (coordination being illegal and all). If Hick promises to run a clean campaign and the 527s start running slime ads on his behalf, I would expect Hick to publicly disavow them. If he does, that says something. If he doesn’t, that says something too.
The supreme court invalidated the law that specified 527’s be entirely separate from the candidate.
Thus this is the first year in a long time that will be a free for all. 527’s will be “On message” consistently, yet will have the ability to be as negative as they want to be.
only rules against mentioning candidates specifically by name.
Did they invalidate “coordination” also? No.
http://www.nonprofitlawblog.co…
“rules against coordination.”
Citizen’s United didn’t change the prohibition against coordination.
If by Outside Groups you mean Tancredo trashing Maes, and Maes trashing Tancredo, you’re right on. Heck, Hick doesn’t even need a 527: those two bozos are doing fine destroying each other just as it is.
Can’t think of the last politic ad that did. Way to go Hick!
Who the heck is he kidding. And if he is really serious about that, he might as well just join the Tea Party now? Seriously?!? The guy is either a Republican or a liar.
They borrow money to pay for tax cuts.
n/t
You could have challenged the assertion that Republicans don’t cut spending, but instead you asked a meaningless question.
BTW, Ritter cut spending. Does that make him a Republican?
As in ” Beej has left the building ”
Excellent work.
Hence the need for the Tea Party.
– Crickets –
and it takes him a long time to MSU. (You try it once and see just how hard it is to be completely ignorant in everything you say.)
Doesn’t really matter who wins. The Governor, and the legislature are going to have to dramatically cut spending. The only question, presumably, is what they will cut.
It’s more fun to watch BJ sputter and foam at the mouth when a Dem says they’ll cut spending.
Increasing the debt by a trillion dollars is definitely part of a grand budget cutting scheme.
Even worse.
It was already over a trillion dollars per year when Bush left office. Did you intentionally forget that significant point which makes you a fraud or did you really not know which makes you a clueless goofball? Please give us an answer. We’d like to know which person you are: 1) a deceptive liar or 2) a clueless goofball.
I’m guessing you’ll be the first one to do the happy dance when the disastrous Bush tax cuts expire so we can start to see a federal revenue increase to finance our wars without borrowing from China.
misnamed “stimulus” that the Dems past. Clean out those cobwebs and you’ll remember it too.
I type too fast.
Colorado balances the state budget every single year – so yeah, we do have a really good record on that; in fact a perfect one.
If you can’t distinguish the difference between the state and federal government, I don’t expect you to understand where our debt and deficit came from. You’re just one dumb son of bitch who votes R probably because you’re money bags daddy told you to.
My daddy don’t have no money. Obviously, I was referring to Dems in general. And if state government has a balanced budget, why on earth does Hickenlooper want to cut spending? Does he plan to cut taxes too? Heck, I might vote for him if I actually believed that.
as one math guy to another, about how big did you think Colorado’s budget deficit was before Go Blue explained it to you?
Really trying to get a handle on your thought processes. They’re fascinating.
I was making a general point about how much Dems spend.
It’s all just a pretty smoke and light show. No real substance to it. It fun to watch though.
The budget must be constructed in line with revenue projections. Both the Governor’s office and the Legislature do revenue projections. Revenue is projected to be down next year. Since neither the Governor nor the Legislature can raise taxes without a vote of the people, spending must be cut to produce a balanced budget. If the budget balances and revenue turns out to be even worse than forecast, spending must be cut even more. We don’t print our own money here in Colorado.
I wish they hadn’t quit teaching Civics when you were in HS.
This is yet another blessing that St. Ronnie bestowed upon us. So it must be good. Right?
That’s my whole point: we need to cut spending; not raise taxes.
would be easier to get through than bj’s thick skull.
His argument goes like this:
1. In CO, the legislature isn’t allowed to raise taxes
2. Therefore we will have to cut spending to balance the budget
3. Therefore democrats suck
because it is common knowledge that raising revenues is always off the table as an option. Not even worth discussing in this state. We’re on a downward race to displace Mississippi on the bottom rung of the ladder!
Wrong! Being a Liar is a prerequisite to becoming a republican…
Skip the shower BJ, “we still need the water.”
Why won’t anyone explain to me the obvious hypocrisy? Being a Democrat is synonymous with government spending.
I know you still want to believe in the tooth fairy of politics, but your belief hasn’t been the case in many, many years.
But don’t let facts get in the way of cliches……
Obama increased the deficit by $1 trillion in just one year. It’s laughable how you guys can’t see the massive spending right in front of your face. Do you seriously expect the American public to ignore Obama’s spending. He’s spent more than any other president in our history, for crying out loud!
But why bother showing the graph (again) where the “Bush Wars Of Convenience” were dishonestly kept off-budget.
Fundamentalism is a very sad disease.
Obam included the cost of the two Bush Wars which Bush had “kept off of the books.” Like, wow, our income is pretty good if we don’t count the mortgage payment!
Further Fact, the costs of the stimulus package are due to The Second Republican Great Depression, just like the cost of the New Deal.
Don’t blame Obama or the Dems, it’s Bush, Reagan, Bush that blew the budget. Clinton saved it.
Clinton and the Dems caused the crisis with “affordable housing”, and Obama has blown the budget far beyond anything Bush ever did.
You must be a masochist, since you seem to love being shown that you’re wrong all the time.
You must be an idiot, because you say idiotic things.
Well, the right wing media is th con artist and gullible folks like you are the rubes.
The affordable housing shell is also known as “smoke and mirrors.”
I suppose you have entirely forgotten about Bill Clintons budget surplus that Bush blew threw in his first six months?
Being a Democrat is synonymous with responsible government spending.
Being a republican is synonymous with wasteful government spending.
got it yet?
Democrats spend wastefully. Case in point: the stimulus. Republicans spend only on what the Constitution mandates (defense, etc.).
For years I wished we had a way to respond to stupid bumper stickers. We still don’t, but BJ is pretty close.
Sometimes I’ve been tempted to respond to stupid in this manner:
that suddenly you’re using single-word subject headings with periods. Wonder where you got the idea to do that?
I’ve also been typing words, just like you. Shocker!
I notice these things, and you’re lying.
I called you “grasshopper” once. Another swipe!
I called you “grasshopper” once. Another swipe!
you must have been one of those kids in school who was always trying to cheat off of other people’s work (like mine). Stop trying to claim credit for what isn’t yours.
Is it days? Weeks? Months? Years?
Order of magnitude. Help me out.
that Hick could go one vacation and come back November 3rd and still win. But heck, as long as he has the money coming in, might as well have fun with it.
Still won’t vote for him but a good ad nonetheless.
1. Bumps his name recognition. I have heard of him.
2. He is a “nice” guy. I could vote for him.
3. When the negative ads air. He is a nice guy, remember that shower commercial?
4. He is running a positive campaign. I like that, I could vote for him.
PreГ«mptive strikes are the best.
Hickenlooper has been attacked in commercials for months already. Did everyone forget the extremely catchy and successful “No Jobs John” ads?
This ad is great but you bring up an even better point.
It speaks volumes of Dick Wadhams failure as a party chair. This guy was once described as the savior of the Colorado GOP just four short years ago is now seen as an empty suit. Comedy.
How much does he get paid again do such a bad job? If this was the free market… oh the hypocrisy of right wingers.
Of course, that was before his string of failures.
Completely ruling out negative ads is a terrible idea; if the other guy starts beating the hell out of you, you may just have to respond in kind — not even necessarily by attacking him, but by calling a lie a lie. I know the race looks like it’s in the bag for Hick now, but you never know, so it’s bad strategy to commit to fighting with one hand behind your back.
Pushing positive is a giant advantage for the front-runner, because if there are no negative ads then he wins. So he is trying to force his advantage.
And if the negative ads start to bite, there will be 3rd parties to run negative ads in return.
When 527s start airing negative ads about Tancredo, Hickenlooper will be [incorrectly] blamed and called a hypocrite (Hick-ocrite?).
We doubt there is going to be any significant independent expenditures for either Tancredo or Maes. It’s also possible that neither candidate has enough money to really do anything on TV on their own — they’ve only got a month left before they have to go heavy on the tube.
but it only takes one negative ad for some one to say “What happened to ‘A clean campaign?'”
… some folks will call on Hick to demand that the ad be taken down; Hick won’t do that, & he’ll be called out for it. I know he doesn’t control the 527s, but he could — and won’t — denounce a neg ad by one.
The Mud Room on his website calls out negative ads or arguments of others.
I predict he finds a way to push back on negative ads in his own ads (see, e.g., “Stripes”).
The guy can get away with different approaches, particularly when he is running against Maes and Tancredo. Oy.
Hickenlooper’s response to negative attacks will look like a compliment to his opponents just because it came from his mouth. He’s being positioned as a saint, he can argue any point and get away with it whereby any other politician besides Obama would be called out for attacking their opponent.
Brilliant Ad
No doubt he will be “shocked” that someone has run a negative ad against his opponents, and give a speech urging 527s to stay out of this race. The 527s will then protest a little, and grudgingly comply.
The smear will have been cast, but he’ll look even more saintly for having driven the the nastiness out of Colorado politics out. Opponents go down a notch in the polls, Hick goes up. That’s political science.
Wouldn’t want to play chess with this guy!
hahaha
+100 to Hick’s final line in the ad. People will eat that up.
makes a similar point.
…live my entire life without ever seeing Hick in the shower. But the ad is sorta cute. I haven’t seen it on TV yet.
He can afford to take the high road. I’ll be more impressed in 2014, should the ‘pubs find a truly credible candidate by then.
Learn to say: Governor HickUNlooper for 8 years, not 4.
And, if he and Joe play their cards rights, the next Repub chance is in 2026. That is 16 years, if you are counting.
(And why would you assume that just because Hick gets elected in 2010, he’s a shoo-in for 2014? Remember all the hoo-hah over Ritter 4 years ago – where is he going now?)
1. John is not Bill.
2. If John promotes Joe (as other governors have not) as an esteemed sidekick, then Joe’s chances will be improved.
3. If John quits at the 7.1 year mark and Joe takes his place, then Joe’s chances go way up.
The real question is: is Hick a Party guy or a Lone Ranger?
is a wee bit on the careless side?
What exactly has “DB” risked by broadcasting his predictions? Nothing. What is there to be careful of?
It captures the ideal that Hick is unconventional and has common sense. It is memorable. It leaves you feeling positive. It is an ad that couldn’t work with anybody else; it captures his trademark style. It builds a personal relationship with him (how many other political candidates have you spent time in the shower with?).
The anti-negative ad timing is also brilliant. He’s framed the debate. It forces Tancredo and Maes to engage with his ads as they think about making their own before they get any ads on the air. And, as underdogs, they need to run negative ads to change the status quo much more than he does to keep it. If they do run negative ads against Hick (and surely that will), he can respond with an “I told you so.”
I wish Michael Bennet would hire Hickenlooper’s ad agency.
It would be a good strategy except that
1. I’m not sure Bennet can pull it off.
2. His already gone negative in this election during the primary
It doesn’t need to be the same ad, or even the same idea. But having an agency that creates really good ads – that would be a big help for Bennet.
That was a nice touch at the end with the water comment. I thought the ad was a little odd, but that made the ad come together in the end.
Hick is in a lucky position where he can actually afford to run a positive campaign – that said, he’s intelligent enough to recognize this, as such
The ad is excellent
We all know we’re going to be bombarded with political ads for the next 2 1/2 months. It’s actually sort of refreshing to see one that’s light-hearted and positive.
the sense that Hick:
– is a cool guy, willing to poke fun at himself;
– is clean (LOTS of showers, after all)
– won’t go negative.
All in all, a good ‘framing’ ad for Hick.
But the rhetoric about cutting spending and etc. is totally lost in the shower spray, has zero staying power. No substantive reason is given to vote FOR Hick.
Plenty of time for that in ensuing weeks though.
Overall rating: 85%
Hard to envision Maes or Tancredo doing better.
All kinds of rich R and Chamber support for Hick. He can have as much fun with ads as he wants. Resistance is futile, Tea Partiers. Here comes the guv.
instead of just quirky commercials from any of the candidates, i’d rather hear a real plan or discussion of candidate postions. as far as cutting spending, its one thing to say it, another to do it effectively.
Do you have any specifics in mind?
…it’s pure genius. Hick doesn’t have to go negative because Tom “I screwed over the conservative vote” Tancredo and Dan Maes will battle it out for the heart and soul of those votes. Meanwhile, with the ugliness coming from those two, independents will be turned off by it and flock to Hickenlooper. Couple that with the Democratic base going to the Denver Mayor, and this may be the easiest election Hickenlooper may have ever ran in.