The first public poll in House District 4 was released. http://americanactionforum.org… And yes it does seem to have a flaw in it. It undercounts the likely Republican vote. Cory Gardner leads Betsy Markey 50 to 39. There is a story about the ppolling in the Coloradoan. http://www.coloradoan.com/arti…
Gardner offered the following explanation, which seems to have rather general applicability for his lead:
“Being a rubber stamp for Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama’s failed economic policies and healthcare takeover has taken a heavy toll on Betsy Markey.”
The details of the poll are even worse for Markey than the top lines. Aside from the less than 50% marker as an incumbent this late in the cycle which fortells her defeat, her popularity in her district is attrocious. Her 50% unfavorability rating tops even Michael Bennet who sits at 49%.
Some of the other interesting findings in the poll include:
> Thirty-five percent of voters said Markey deserved re-election and 56 percent said it was time for someone else to hold the seat.
> Sixty-eight percent of district voters think the country is on the wrong track, and only 25 percent think it’s on the right track.
> In an open-ended question, 52 percent of voters cited the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the country.
> Fifty-five percent of voters oppose the health-care reform bill passed in to law earlier this year, compared to 38 percent who supported the bill. Markey voted for the final version of the bill in March after voting against a different version in November.
Whatever happened to the summer of recovery and healthcare reform would be popular by the election that the House sacrificial lambs were promised? On the economy front, now former Chair of the Presidents Economic Advisiors, Christina Romer, had there calming insights at the National Press Club yesterday:
She had no idea how bad the economic collapse would be. She still doesn’t understand exactly why it was so bad. The response to the collapse was inadequate. And she doesn’t have much of an idea about how to fix things.
What she did have was a binder full of scary descriptions and warnings, offered with a perma-smile and singsong delivery: “Terrible recession. . . . Incredibly searing. . . . Dramatically below trend. . . . Suffering terribly. . . . Risk of making high unemployment permanent. . . . Economic nightmare.”
It appears that the economy will no more likely recover by November 2, than the political career of Betsy Markey
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I thought the GOP was dead?
Oh, man. If things hold up, I’m going to be posting some really fantastic quotes from January of ’09.
Mwah ah ah.
Certainly seems worthy of being front page material. I wonder what Pols thinks?
Calling for a post to be promoted to the front page doesn’t work with us. In fact, it often has the opposite effect. When there are coordinated efforts to try to get us to change our tone on a candidate or campaign, we know what’s happening, and we intentionally ignore it. The Romanoff people were always trying to do this here. Folks can demand or “hint” at whatever they want, but most of the time we ignore it for the spin that it is.
When the refs know they’re being worked, they don’t have to put up with it!
Email Alan and see if he’ll loan you his “Immediate Frontpage” button.
🙂
Alan posted inks to all his diaries that didn’t get front-paged. So watch it, LB, you’re just provoking him.
I forgot that the “Here’s how to dress Scott McInnis in funny clothes” runtime program diary never was frontpaged.
I didn’t expect you would actually front page it.
We’ll have 20 diaries/day pretty soon.
That every time a post like this goes up, and the troll comments demanding it be promoted immediately follow, it should be ignored. Fuck you guys, go piss on somebody else’s rug.
And I would suggest this post NOT be promoted unless the portion detailing the major methodology problems is included. Right now it’s just one-sided propaganda.
but there have been plenty of times Dems on this site have pissed on the Repub’s rug.
This is a tough year for Dems in Colorado and in the nation; sucks to be us. Getting your panties in a bunch and telling people to f**k off doesn’t really change much.
I’m a grownup, and I’m not surprised that Betsy is down in the polls – I don’t buy 11 down, though, and this poll has major methodological problems as Bob Moore reports in the article cited.
It’s the pushiness that bothers me, demanding a post get promoted, and by “pissing on the rug” I mean the Guv’s rug. I suppose they can take care of themselves, but I didn’t like it when the Romanoff people tried to push the hosts of this site around, and I don’t like it any better when GOPers do it. Maybe I’m old fashioned about courtesy.
The obvious methodolgy flaw, that they underpolled republicans among other flaws, was pointed out and the poll and article which discuss the flaws were linked. I am not trying to work the refs and have not tried to rally any troops to do the same. There is going to be a lot of interesting polling coming out over the next 60 days which will mostly piss you off. It is not personal.
BTW. Larry Sabato at U VA who has a 98% trackrecord with picks at labor day has Republicans picking up 48 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate. SABATO HAS TAKEN THE COLORADO SENATE RACE OFF THE LIST OF TOSS-UPS. It is now listed as going to the Republican.
Your work is done.
Have a nice Sep & Oct. See you in Nov.
…really tied the room together.
before you’re not considered a troll? Or does it just depend on ideology?
Keeping us up to date on the latest Republican push polls?
His last comment here was back in mid July. Don’t mean to pry if it has something to do with the Pols vs. Newspaper situation, but it’d be nice to have his direct take on CD-4.
We finally had a chance to take a closer look, and you failed to mention the obvious problem with the poll: It only asks about two candidates. You can’t have an accurate poll that doesn’t include the other two candidates on the ballot.