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September 16, 2010 10:14 PM UTC

50%+1

  • 62 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Not a chance that what the New York Times reports today could be exactly what we’ve been saying for months, through all the allegations of bias over the fickle news of the day–is there?

Republicans are heading into the general election phase of the midterm campaign backed by two powerful currents: the highest proportion of voters in two decades say it is time for their own member of Congress to be replaced, and Americans are expressing widespread dissatisfaction with President Obama’s leadership.

But the latest New York Times/CBS News poll also finds that while voters rate the performance of Democrats negatively, they view Republicans as even worse, providing a potential opening for Democrats to make a last-ditch case for keeping their hold on power… [Pols emphasis]

A case for Republicans: Voters are remarkably open to change, even if they are not sure where Republicans will lead them. Most Americans, including one-third of those in the coalition that elected Mr. Obama, now say he does not have a clear plan to solve the nation’s problems or create jobs. Democrats remain highly vulnerable on the economy.

A case for Democrats: They are seen as having better ideas for solving the country’s problems. The public steadfastly supports the president’s proposal to let tax cuts expire for the wealthiest Americans. And far more people still blame Wall Street and the Bush administration than blame Mr. Obama for the country’s economic problems.

As we head for the home stretch of this long election season–which began practically the moment the current President took office–the benchmark for comparison is 1994, a year in which a new Democratic President had control of Congress swept out from under him. A month and a half from election day 2010, a repeat of 1994 is possible–but not inevitable. Democrats are almost certain to have their majorities narrowed at all levels–from the U.S. Senate to the Colorado General Assembly. But it’s not as yet certain that Democrats will lose control of any individual chamber, either in Congress or in the state assembly. Democrat certainty of doom and gloom, while in style according to conventional wisdom, may well be exaggerated.

Kind of like we’ve said all along.

The U.S. Senate’s prospects are changing as “Tea Party” candidates win Republican primaries only to face uphill battles in the general election. We’ll stress again that this includes Ken Buck—Jane Norton was always considered the better general election candidate, and Michael Bennet would be facing much longer odds against Norton at this point. We do not believe that polls would show an essentially tied race between Bennet and Norton as they do with Buck, and that is reflective of the perception of Buck as extreme. While Bennet gets positive press for small business-friendly legislation, Bennet’s ads hammer away at Buck’s ‘extremism’ on issues that are either not important to voters or horrendously counter to their interests (see: 94% Medicare approval rating). Meanwhile, the Times reports that Buck’s #1 talking point, all that terrible “spending,” has no traction:

The economy and jobs are increasingly and overwhelmingly cited by Americans as the most important problems facing the country, while the federal budget deficit barely registers as a topic of concern when survey respondents were asked to volunteer their worries.

For the last two years, the debate over the issues that Democrats foresaw themselves running on in 2010 was–we’ll freely admit it–brilliantly obstructed and irrationalized by Republicans, who kept their eyes on this coming election from the beginning. From effective minority legislative obstruction to successfully controlling the prevalent message in the media about the Democratic agenda, they have accomplished the goal of depriving Democrats the platform of success they needed to re-energize the 2008 electorate.

But it has come at a cost of credibility, which the “Tea Party” candidates do not help them recover. What’s more it has not been accompanied with an alternative of their own, and the voters understand that based on their responses here. As the fever-pitch craziness of the last two years gives way to a sober choice at the ballot box, Democrats will have one more chance to turn the asset of an irrational conservative backlash into a liability. Exactly as we predicted, we might add–people complained that we don’t view Scott Tipton as a serious threat to John Salazar, then he demonstrated over and over why we don’t.

Like we say on the Big Line, fully three Democratic U.S. House seats are hypothetically in play, and the Senate race is too close to call. On paper, it’s the greatest peril faced by Democrats since they regained their majorities–nationally and locally. But the fact that all of these races remain entirely winnable by Democrats, means that all the bravado from Republicans about their “rolling wave” masks uncertainty, and profound weakness, even as the stars seemingly line up for them.  

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62 thoughts on “50%+1”

  2. If not else, COPols has some serious confidence in The Big Line and its predictions.  You are either going to be seen as stubborn defenders who can’t see reality or as completely having your fingers on the pulse of the Colorado voter.

    FWIW, I think this post is right, but I’d hem and haw it a lot more.

  3. “A case for Democrats: They are seen as having better ideas for solving the country’s problems. The public steadfastly supports the president’s proposal to let tax cuts expire for the wealthiest Americans. And far more people still blame Wall Street and the Bush administration than blame Mr. Obama for the country’s economic problems”.

    If there was ever any doubt that the Republican Party is the party of the rich, it vaporized Monday when Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell promised to kill tax cuts for households earning less than $250,000 if Democrats have the gall to allow tax cuts for the rich to expire.

    Excluding wealth derived from a primary residence, Republicans would extend tax cuts for those that include by one estimate 7.8 million households with a net worth of $1 million or more (980,000 with a net worth of $5 million or more).   By contrast, the U.S. median household income in 2008 was only $52,091.

  4. I believe we will prove you wrong on two counts: that Republicans cannot present a mainstream choice to voters, and that Republicans cannot govern effectively. We can do both, and we will.

    But respect to the enemy before the great battle.

    2. I don’t disagree that it’s possible that a legitimate conservative firebrand could appear between now and November and give the GOP a “mainstream choice for voters,” with the promise of governing effectively.

      Unfortunately, between the tea party crowd primarying every moderate from the lunatic fringe, and the official GOP position on all issues (“No”), such a candidate/movement would be severely hamstrung.

      Also, we liberals (who are often Democrats) are not the enemy.

      We are Americans who want our country to be great, and who see that Republican policies of endless war, torture, corruption, state surveillance, deregulation, the elimination of the middle class, and tax cuts for the wealthiest 18,000 families in America are not the way to greatness.  We’d like your help, but it sounds like you’re already preparing for war against over half of your own fellow citizens.

      1. What voters don’t like is the old GOP, i.e. the Bush-era establishment. They see that the GOP has cleaned out the “party of no” type people and is putting forward fresh candidates with conservative ideas to save our country. Compared with the mess Obama and his D.C. buddies have created, there’s no contest.

                1. The ‘pubs are nominating bona fide nuts everywhere. All it takes is a few 527s to show a few videos of them to scare the electorate straight – or scare them away from the polls, at least, which won’t benefit the GOP.

                  1. I see you think I was bolstering Dan’s point, when I was just reminding you that the election hasn’t happened yet, and cautioning you against overconfidence.

                    Or maybe you meant your comment to be in response to Dan? That makes more sense than as a response to me.

            1. How big will their caucus be? Seriously, what’s the number?

              If it’s a minority, who’s really going to pay attention to them? It’s not like they straddle the party divide like the blue dogs. They’re not going to threaten to bolt to the other side. If it wants, the Republican leadership can safely ignore them, just like they have the fundamentalists (till the next election rolls around).

              And assuming that R’s retake the House, I think the tea party candidates will go into the sausage grinder and come out looking like little Gingriches: thoroughly corrupted.  

        2. There’s some fresh blood.  

          And all the ranking members set to take over committee chairs should your wishes come true.  But we at least agree on something BJ, Bush was an abject failure.  

                2. Just going back to Truman, (not even ‘any other president in history’) quite a few presidents have had quicker, and more precipitous, declines in their approval rating.  But then again, as we all know, you just MUS, post it, pretend its true and move on.  Should I post my links?  Or should I imagine that you, as the supposedly well-credentialed student of all things you claim to be, can find it on your own.

                  Hint: http://www.google.com (I am assuming you know how to use a keyboard here).

                    1. You might actually seek to learn about an issue before you post.  I mean it might help you look less like the perpetual idiot.  Just a friendly suggestion.

                      (Most presidents since Truman have experienced similar drops, some much more precipitously).

                    4. Anti free speech, especially when other people are pointing out your faults. Thank God you socialists haven’t done away with the 1st amendment yet.

    3. and quite unlike your usual bellicose boasting.

      I hope you can maintain this higher tone in the months ahead.  (Don’t worry if you backslide occasionally, we all do, like when I talk about that F*#()#$*$&@#@{ BJWilson (oops, just got a timeout from pols.)

        But seriously, well said.

    4. Democrat policies are steeped in history with expansive government and low “tax payer sector” job growth.

      Sure you can say FDR grew the economy — a war helped him, but it took over a decade to recover from 25% unemployment … especially after his “make-work” programs of the WPA or PWA.

      So here we have 2010 and Hickenlooper will propose to cut government by doing away with the CSAP. The Union bait is that he’ll expand opportunities for even greater unaccountable spending and DPS-style 50% dropout rates.

      Next Hick will be calling for all government performance measures and audits to be shuttered.

      1. Filibustering a bill that had a neat package of tax credits, tax cuts, and expanded SBA loan programs for small biz seems like a DEM thing to do, ‘tad.

        Why did the Republican’t Party let so many small businesses go under with their filibuster? Do they hate Small-town America?

      2. All of the greatest periods of job growth in modern American came under Democratic presidencies!  All. Negative job growth?  Hoover and Bushtoo. They are Republicans, if you haven’t noticed.

        Yeah, I know, that isn’t in your bible of lies, but it is so.  

        And, pray tell, what president of what party ran this country into the economic ground so badly it took essentially a decade to climb out?  Hint: Starts with H and R.

  5. The difference between disgust for Dems and that for GOP is negligible.  What is much more significant is the disgust for incumbents.  Guess who that describes more often than not?

    The only races where your point even makes sense is in those like DE-Senate where Dems may have a much easier task of convincing the voters that the Republican isn’t worthy.  And it has nothing to do with Tea Party – that label is fairly innocuous to the average non-MSNBC and non-FOX accolytes.

    Otherwise, the tidal wave that overran Republicans last year has come full circle (quicker than usual) and is about to drown the Dems.

    BTW, you guys are the depiction of duplicity.  Talking from both sides of your mouth, hedging your bets and predicting the present.

    A month and a half from election day 2010, a repeat of 1994 is possible–but not inevitable.

    Democrat certainty of doom and gloom, while in style according to conventional wisdom, may well be exaggerated.

    …means that all the bravado from Republicans about their “rolling wave” masks uncertainty, and profound weakness, even as the stars seemingly line up for them.

     

    Democrats will have one more chance to turn the asset of an irrational conservative backlash into a liability.

    Exactly as we predicted…

  6. Come again?

    Yes, Lt Governor Norton was the ‘establishment’ choice, but unlike Buck, Norton was declaring war on all 56 Muslim countries – how the heck did that make her a better candidate??

    Bennet and his team would’ve had a field day for 2 months straight with her gaffes

    1. Most of Colorado’s voters don’t put our diplomatic relations with 56 Muslim countries on the top of their list of things they care about.  Only the Iraq & Afghan wars even make the top 10.

      So…you may be right.  But who cares?

    1. And what if the election of 2010 end up looking like 2004 (with the Dems riding “Bush Sucks” to victory) will you take a break from Auto Body class and admit you were wrong, and then not post for a week?

          2. for anybody.

            Nobody has to leave the country. Unfortunately, that probably means, unlike following the primary, that the idiots will still be here as well.

            But, if Buck wins, and education gets cut, as it did when Tancredo worked for a GOP admin, BJ might have to find another way to earn some $. He could be a fundamentalist preacher. That requires no knowledge.  

                1. If they would just have left it alone, TABOR would have worked as intended. Small cuts distributed across the board, nobody suffers unduly, and then we have the best economy in the nation and everyone gets good jobs. But of course meddling big government types couldn’t leave well enough alone.

  8. I know this is a horse race political blog, and you guys are tracking points. But I think that Republican obstruction has cost more than their own credibility. Republican obstruction is why we do not have a public option. Republican obstruction is why the stimulus wasn’t big enough to do what we needed it to do. Republican obstruction is why hundreds of thousands of unemployed people temporarily lost their benefits this summer, unprecedented in a major unemployment crisis.

    Republican obstruction does more than score political points. They hurt real people, and we had better not forget it.

    2. As a Democrat, I’m still not entirely sold on the idea that bailing out banks and the stimulus (I understand the arguments for both) was the right way to go. If you can’t sell you ideas to your own party–let alone Republicans and independents–you’ve got a major problem  

      The healthcare definitely had flaws, but I thought it was a step in the right direction. As cumbersome as a mandate may be, I agree that it’s the ultimately one of the few viable ways to get health insurance to everyone. If you take away the mandate, you end up with a viscous cycle whereby the cost go up, health people leave, and the only ones left are the sick people (they have nowhere to go). This cycle repeats itself, until the system collapses.  

  9. Right or wrongly, when the economy goes south voters tend to blame the party in power. Republicans still for the most part continue to espouse the philosophy of “no government,” and don’t have a lot of ideas. These two seemingly contradictory explanations might account for why the Republicans, though favored, aren’t held in the highest regard.  

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