September 29, 2010 09:59 PM UTC

A Razzy For Your Wednesday

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• by: Colorado Pols

It’s an outlier based on every other poll showing this race well inside the margin of error–and we apparently have to pay a fine to somebody for even mentioning–but we’re obligated to call your attention to Rasmussen Reports’ latest poll on the Colorado Senate race, out today:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Colorado shows Buck with 51% support, while Bennet earns 43% of the vote with leaners included. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided.

These findings move the race from a Toss-Up to Leans GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings. Two weeks ago, Buck held a 49% to 45% lead when leaners were part of the totals…

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Colorado was conducted on September 27, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

UPDATE: Some germane food for thought on the expansive question of “likely voters,” and how presumptions and demographic circumstance weight polls–from Politico, H/T to Michael Booth of the Denver newspaper:

This Election Day is poised to send a message about how valid the methodologies behind the surveys are – and prompt questions about how reliant the 24-hour news cycle ought to be on polls for headlines that end up influencing everything from strategy to campaign donations to the perception of viability.

Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies put it bluntly: “Lots of them are simply lousy polls; they don’t accurately reflect younger voters, African-Americans and Latinos. This all contributes to underrepresenting Democrat support. Having said that, there’s a real debate about what will be the appropriate composition of the electorate.”

He said that too many surveys are omitting minor-party candidates on the ballot when they test and that the press ought to make a point of demanding that all demographic data and questions be released with the top-line numbers…