President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
May 06, 2020 09:50 AM UTC
26 Comments
Late yesterday a 
As Ernest Luning reports for 
"The trajectory of the 2020 Senate race is pretty clear."
How can you say that if you only have half of it correct?
How do we know trajectory? Two polls that didn’t bother with Hick/Romanoff figures, but went with just Hick. I got an invite to another poll, from CIVIQS, testing only Hick v. Gardner. I think 3 polls ALL choosing to assume a particular match-up is a good hint of trajectory.
Money raised — Romanoff has a higher percentage of unitemized individual donations (34%), showing the “grass roots” donors in Colorado are a more important part of his campaign. Hickenlooper’s equivalent is 24%. Dollar amounts matter. The unitemized individual giving: Romanoff raised $731k at the last report. Hickenlooper raised $2.02m. Romanoff raising 36% as much as Hick. I did not get individual donations from inside/outside Colorado — but I speculate Romanoff is much more Colorado-based by percentage. I’d be surprised if the dollar amounts are going to be all that different.
A campaign staying silent on polling reports has been a worrisome sign in my (limited) experience. A campaign not having some “good news” comparison to their opponent is also not a good sign.
DSCC Raked In Cash from Health Care and Fossil Fuel Lobbyists Before Endorsing Hickenlooper
In fairness to the pollsters they aren't including extra candidates against Gardner because it's expensive to do so. If I put gardner, hick and romo on the same poll, I divide the ds and gardner wins, 40 pct to 35 for hick and 15 for Romo (hypothetically)
Whereas either dem alone wins 50 -40.
So, to rate both, I need one survey hick- Gardner and a wholly separate romo gardner survey with different voters. It's just too expensive. Adding in a minor candidate like Garcia would triple the cost.
I wasn’t thinking of a separate poll for the primary. That opens up all sorts of problems. But a general election survey would mean a slight design change, talking to the same people (or slightly more) and asking an additional question, alternating who got to go first.
There would be an incremental cost — but at this point, I’m more interested that 3 independent polling firms (and their clients) chose not to do that. And Romanoff isn’t answering with polling of his own.
Yes, that can be done but it's expensive and introduces a bias. You give voters a choice they can't actually have in november. In effect you give a guy like duke an "auction". If you can't get romo will you hold your nose and vote for hick, etc.
And you'll still have minor candidates yelling at you for ignoring Garcia, Warren and my parakeet.
Funny how you state things you think as though they are facts.
Time will tell.
Duke, it's a bit early for you to hit the ganji. No voter this November will look at a ballot with Gardner, Romo and Hick on it. Maybe in Dukeworld but not on earth.
Why didn’t they poll Romanoff ( or any other Democratic Senate candidates) against Gardner?
Who?
What part of "self-fulfilling prophecies" don't you understand, kiwi?
Just kidding kw. I'm sure Andrew would poll better than Gardner. Mr. Potato Head would poll better than Gardner. A candidate to be named later would poll better than Gardner. It is going to be so great on election night if both Trump and Gardner get trounced. Long live anyone other than a Republican.
Maybe they don't associate Romanoff with coronavirus like they did Hick and Gardner.
Who is associating Hick with the corona virus?
How many are associating Gardener with Trump and the virus?
The Montana State poll was an online poll with the primary consideration of coronavirus. The Senate race was a secondary consideration … "OH! As long as you're here taking our coronavirus poll, what are your preferences for CO Senate?".
As I see it, Gardner knows he's got to take one for the team. He takes his lumps in November, blames COVID, and then packs off to work for a fat cat oil company where he makes twice what Hick has raised in the campaign as an annual salary., maybe more. Wait one, maybe two cycles, and he's tanned, rested and ready. For what I don't know, but I don't think Cory is in "trouble."
Mayor of Yuma? A run for his old House seat? He ain't gonna win statewide again.
He’s not that popular in Yuma anymore from what I hear. Seems there’s angry constituents wanting to talk, everywhere he goes.
Big checks in the oil field are a thing of the past. Big checks being the middle man for the national stockpile are just beginning.
I noticed on PPP that even Emerson had Hick up 13 points on Gardner.
.
If Trump is running 10pts behind 2016, and that stench-by-association carries over to the rest of the Republican Party…
Go NC, GAx2, AZ, MT, ME, KS and TX!
The Democratic messaging should be GOP guilt by association with Trump.
Under the category of when your dream scenario becomes your worst nightmare – What happens if Trump loses (odds are definitely against him at this point), the Dems take the Senate (if they only need to get to 50, it might be even money), and something happens in the Supreme Court between the election and the inauguration? Something like Thomas or Alito retiring, or any of them dying from Covid 19 or otherwise. Will there be riots in the streets when on lame-duck majority leader McConnell rams through one of his 30-year-old proteges (or dog groomers) for lame-duck tRump's rubber stamp?
We pray for the health and safety of RBG every night before bedtime.
The problem is never in human history have prayers done any good….
If folks vote against the Anti-Christ then they sure as Hell aren't going to vote for one of his lackeys. Talk me through how Gardner has a realistic chance to beat Romanoff if the state rejects Trump by a wider margin than 2016 due to no anti-Hillary votes.