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October 15, 2010 07:33 PM UTC

Democrats Still Looking at House Losses; But Some Gains, Too?

  • 5 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

From our friends at “The Fix“:

A new poll of battleground districts shows Republicans still poised to make big gains in November although the outlook has brightened somewhat for Democrats since the summer.

The NPR News poll, which surveyed likely voters in 86 competitive districts held by Democrats and 10 held by the GOP, found that Republicans now lead Democrats 47 percent to 44 percent on the generic congressional ballot, down from Republicans’ 49 percent to 41 percent lead in June.

The poll, which was conducted jointly by Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and GOP pollster Public Opinion Strategies, also found that in Democratic-held districts 41 percent of likely voters approved of the job President Barack Obama is doing while 55 percent disapprove; in Republican-held districts that are being targeted by Democrats, 51 percent of likely voters approved of Obama’s handling of his job while 46 percent disapproved.

Overall, the survey provides some — but not much — good news for Democrats less than three weeks out from Election Day.

It lands, however, less than 24 hours after the Cook Political Report upped its projection for GOP gains in the House.

“Overall, given the status of these Toss Up races and the length of the Lean Democratic column, Democrats’ chances of losing at least 50 seats are now greater than their chances of holding losses under 45 seats,” wrote Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman.

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5 thoughts on “Democrats Still Looking at House Losses; But Some Gains, Too?”

  1. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/17…

    this seems plausible. As it turns out a poll done via land-line without Cells leans republican 4-12 points!

    so really republicans touting how big a margin they have borders some where between wishful thinking and totally misinformed. If you subtract roughly 7 points from any of their numbers you are closer to reality.

    alternately if a poll shows republican by a thin margin… let the republican feel happy till nov 2.

    it is humane and without argument headache.  

    1. I’ve seen one poll, which is now stale and was close and had a lot of undecided voters, and I’ve seen the results the last time he and Tipton faced off, in which Tipton was trounced.  The fundraising numbers also favor Salazar.

      There isn’t much evidence that I have seen that an unusually large amount of third party money is being dumped into the Salazar v. Tipton.  This has not been singled out as a battleground race.

      Tipton certainly isn’t as toxic a candidate as some of the Tea Party contenders, but it also isn’t clear that he is benefitting from the wave of Tea Party enthusiasm to the same extent either.

  3. Aurora Sentinel endorses Flerlage. Granted, not even close to a game changer but it’s a surprise to see anyone other than the GOP candidate for CD6 get an endorsement. Interesting excerpt:

    Coffman is a self-made success story, who often by sheer determination and stamina amassed a vast wealth of knowledge and experience about the U.S. military, foreign relations, health care, business law and how ludicrously self-serving our governmental bureaucracy can be. But rather than use his skills to steer fellow Republicans away from repeating past mistakes, he hitched his wagon to the partisan politics he skillfully avoided here in Colorado for many, many years.

    The whole endorsement at:

    http://www.aurorasentinel.com/…

    Forgive me if this is one of the papers we’re not supposed to link to. I can’t remember them all and this was pretty cool.

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