President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 19, 2010 07:18 PM UTC
46 Comments
n/t
Isn’t she a write-in?
so you better believe it Libby!
But popularity doesn’t include the difficulty of getting people to write in your name.
And @Leonard, she is a well-known and well-liked quantity in her district. Winning as a write-in is very difficult, but if anyone can do it, Curry can.
I’m pretty skeptical about her chances. She claims in her radio ads that internal polling puts her ahead, but I’m curious about the methodology. If they give her name as an option, the poll is pretty useless.
She does have a ton of radio adds and a big billboard on Grand in G-Wood, but I still don’t think enough people will remember to write her name in.
I already have my ballot, and I didn’t even think about her until this posting, despite driving by the billboard every day on the way to work.
says that she sent out slate cards.
“Last week my campaign conducted 1200 calls to voters in Garfield, Eagle and Pitkin Counties asking them who they would vote for at this point in time for the House District 61 race. About two weeks ago, a poll was conducted in Gunnison County by a different candidate, for a different office, and we were provided with the results. Using weighted averages to reflect the differences in population in each of these four counties, the results come to 43% for me, 34% for the democrat, and 22% for the republican. We conducted the polling so that we could respond to the misinformation being spread by both Accountability for Colorado and The Neighborhood Project who are claiming that I am a spoiler in the race, and that I am polling at 6%. I don’t know the source of their polling, the questions, or when it was done – but I do know that if you vote for me it will help me get elected, it is not a wasted vote.”
Was there a different place where she talks more specifically about methodology?
Just that she released internals.
My bad.
Given her prior Democratic affiliation, she is more likely to split the D vote and hand it to the R if she gets many votes.
We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: There’s no way Curry wins.
Our opinion on this has nothing to do with Curry specifically. Asking someone to remember your name and vote for you when they see it on the ballot is a LOT different than asking someone to remember to write your name down AND write it down in the correct place on the ballot. Think of how many voters who will probably write-in Curry for the wrong office.
There are a lot of voters who would probably select Curry if she was on the ballot, but it’s far more likely that when they don’t see her name, they’ll completely forget about her altogether. For an average voter who can’t even name their current legislator, you’re asking too much to expect a write-in victory.
I think permanent mail in ballots have already had a serious impact in the primaries. No proof, just gut.
Write-in on Tuesday after work surrounded by busy people is a bit different than receiving your ballot weeks in advance and sitting at the computer for help filling it out. It’s not so much remembering.
Not saying I disagree with you, more like just hopefully curious. :O)
But doesn’t the entire assembly vote for speaker? Or does that not happen in Colorado. I know in some states that leadership is decided by a vote of the entire house, not of just the party with the most votes.
If that’s the scenario in Colorado, Curry could be a kingmaker. Or a wayward Democrat like McKinley or Republican like Massey could easily be the deciding vote one way or another.
I may be wrong, though, and I wholly am aware that I may be wrong. So for those of you with more knowledge of the state constitution, feel free to correct me.
Of course, it’s usually done by the majority party. But everyone votes. If the Ds have 35 votes and split 20-15, everyone then rallies around the winner and the Rs go alone, or vice versa. But it is quite possible for the Rs to join behind a conservative Democrat, and if I recall cq, that happened in California one time. In a 32-32-1 tie, Curry could end up speaker. Stranger things have happened. bjwilson, for example.
Of course, it’s usually done by the majority party. But everyone votes. If the Ds have 35 votes and split 20-15, everyone then rallies around the winner and the Rs go alone, or vice versa. But it is quite possible for the Rs to join behind a conservative Democrat, and if I recall cq, that happened in California one time. In a 32-32-1 tie, Curry could end up speaker. Stranger things have happened. bjwilson, for example.
A speaker who’d upset his own party voted at the last moment with the other to keep himself speaker. Granted, he was technically part of the majority party, but I think that the same idea applies. Some guy named Dave (couldn’t think of the screen name and don’t want to out) brought it to our attention. Maybe he remembers the state? Unless we’re all on the same page…
Even on that note; if a GOP majority emerges, is it possible that the Dems would partner with some moderate R’s to elect a moderate speaker? Not possible do-able (I KNOW that), but possible for a saner leader. I used to watch the House pretty closely, but never really became interested in continuation. So now I’m becoming a the-other-place expert. Awkward since I rarely say it.
http://www.nydailynews.com/new…
I am assuming you are wondering who will be chosen a speaker?
I am pretty sure that is determined by an election within the members, so it would be critical who Curry votes with.
If my memory serves me, there has been times where a disgruntled majority party member wanted to conduct a coup to gain the speakership. He was able to peel away a few members of his party, and convince the minority party to elect him as speaker.
Moral of that little story is that the house, as a whole, votes on who the speaker is. This is usually not an issue because one party or another is able to muster a majority, and are almost purely party-line votes.
I think the same thinking would apply to committee chairmanships etc.
but I have nothing in my memory saying that is the formal way things happen. That is certainly the practical result when there is a clear majority party.
consideration.
Imagine republicans having to compromise…
I’ll make some popcorn.
According to Article V, Section 10 of the Colorado State Constitution, it is the entire body that selects the speaker.
So that aspect of leadership isn’t that interesting. All a candidate for speaker has to do is get a majority of votes within the body to become speaker, votes irrelevant of the makeup of the house. Certainly it’s easier to get votes when your party has an overwhelming majority, but that’s not relevant.
What puzzles me is what happens when the make-up of the body is as close as presumed it will be above. In theory, you could have multiple candidates for speaker from both parties, all of whom have equal chances of becoming the leader if the body is split so evenly. Democrats or Republicans could easily lose the speakership if they have multiple candidates running for speaker; each party has to be unified against the other party for the leadership vote if this is a close vote.
That’s how I interpret it, at least. I may be wrong. I’ll have to examine the constitution more thoroughly. This may be very interesting if it rings true; you could have a total upset in the speaker’s race simply because some sleeper candidate was able to get a majority of the votes of the entire body.
My main question is now this:
How then do you determine the lesser leadership offices once you’ve determined speaker? For example, if we have a Democrat elected speaker by a vote of the whole house, does that Democrat get to determine who the majority party is? Who elects the majority leader? Is that a caucus vote?
According to Article V, Section 22A:
So, as a caucus, you could elect a majority leader, right? So if you have a split house with a D or R speaker, how do you determine which party gets to be the majority party.
Does the speaker’s party have to be the majority party?
If things break down along party lines and each party puts forth one candidate, that could very well happen.
Could the Democrats and Republicans meet as caucuses and agree on a respective candidate for speaker to be put forth to a vote of the entire house? Is that allowed?
they would rally behind one candidate.
Just the legality of it all.
Meanwhile, I side with Ralphie. Curry could get some sweet revenge on the Dems who were far too liberal for her.
“Let’s Make A Deal”
They’d play Morra.
Or shoot it out.
Here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M…
And I’m so from Kansas. I’ve been wondering about that game since I saw my first NYC comedy.
You have no idea what an odd relief this is.
Anytime.
My grandfather (who was a tough-as-nails hod carrier) and his friends used to get together and drink Grappa and play Morra for money. Fist fights sometimes ensued.
The Grappa was distilled from the skins of the grapes from which they made their own wine. All the men in their Italian immigrant neighborhood used to chip in and buy a railroad car load of Zinfandel. The wine press was in my grandfather’s garage. I don’t know where the still was, probably in someone else’s garage.
All of this, of course, assumes that the “Paper’s” top ten competitive races are the only races that matter.
Locally, every race matters, and most will be working their fingers to the bone to make a difference.
Such prognostications are fun to think about, but ultimately they’re at the mercy of one, or maybe two outliers that will upset such scenarios.
Just sayin’.
Given the relative difficulty of write in voting, is that she’ll split the Dem vote and hand the district to the GOP. That means she’ll have let down her constituents twice…once when she defected and surrendered power by losing her leadership position and committee chairmanship and again by assuring them a Republican representative. Another likely possibility is another lawsuit from Curry challenging methods of vote counting that may follow the law but don’t suit her.
Likely a tragic end to a promising career by a formerly effective legislator who ultimately made it all about her rather than those she was supposed to represent.
Leadership wanted her to take positions that she knew her constituents wouldn’t like because leadership sometimes has a hard time seeing past the Front Range.
She fell on her sword for her constituents.
That leaves those same constituents worse off. Can’t win the fight unless you stay in the ring, i.e. the party or the legislature.
do it when you still have an opportunity to get on the ballot. Changing parties before understanding the consequences of doing so was rash.
If she had been able to appear on the ballot as an independent, she would be a huge favorite to win.
Now she’s quite the underdog.
Planning is everything.
and Joe Lieberman is not Kathleen Curry.
Even if Curry retains her seat (a huge feat on its own), it is simply not realistic that the GOP will pick up 5 seats this year.