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January 31, 2011 01:26 AM UTC

CDLE reports unexplained drop in # of 'very long-term' unemployed: 99ers

  • 4 Comments
  • by: Denver Unemployment Examiner

In Friday’s post ‘Official’ reports re 99ers coming from the DOL and CDLE mysteriously decline’, I wrote about the unexplained decline of the number of persons who have exhausted their claims in Colorado as reported by the CDLE:

“…in July it was reported that there were more than 16,000 who had exhausted benefits.  In August, that number had increased to approximately 20,000 and by November it was reported by the CDLE that more than 26,000 unemployed workers in the State had exhausted all available EUC benefits.

Also in Novemer, the CDLE reported that “19,000 people are currently on SEB and will see no more payments after the week ending 12/4/10”  [if the 13-month extension had not been passed in the Presidents ‘deal’].

Now, this week, the CDLE has told the Denver Post, 9News** and all other media outlets that there are ‘just under 19,000 claimants’ who qualify for Tier 4 benefits.  

How can the number of ‘reported’ 99ers start at over 16,000 in July, increase to 20,000 in August and more than 26,000 in November, and then, two months later, fall to ‘just under 20,000’?”

In the same context, I also wrote an article last week titled, “Congressional report provides insight into the long-term unemployed: 99ers” which describes the details contained in a report from the Congressional Research Service which concludes that there are 1.4 million 99ers (as of October 2010, the latest data available at the time the report was prepared).  In that article, I wrote:

“So, the December BLS report tells us that there are 11.5 million workers who are:

a) working part time, but would prefer to be working full time — or,

b) discouraged from looking for work (because there are no jobs) or are temporarily ‘out of the job market’ because they are attending (temporary, short term?) training/school or for other reasons such as family.

Based on this data, here’s the question: How many of these 8.9 million part-time workers were working full time when they were laid off at some point in 2007 or 2008 — but have not had a full-time job for more than 52, 78 and 99 weeks — but want a full-time job? I’m willing to bet that nobody knows the answer to that question, but if the data were available, and these workers were included in the number of people out of (full-time) work for more than 99 weeks, I’m quite certain the number would increase sharply. In other words, there are millions of people who, for periods longer than 52, 78 or 99 weeks, have been unable to find a full-time, permanent job — or gave up looking entirely

So…How many 99ers are really out there? And who is a 99er, anyway?

Denver Unemployment Examiner.com

http://www.examiner.com/unempl…

The Congressional report concludes that there are 1.4 million 99ers (as of October 2010, the most recent data available at the time the report was prepared).  What is becoming increasingly more evident is the fact that the DOL, (including the CDLE), Congress and many in the media are going out of their way to ‘discredit’ the claims of myself and others who believe and have written often about the growing population of 5 million existing 99ers and another 4 million ‘soonto-be 99ers’ on the way.

In his HuffPost article, “There are 1.4 million “very long-term unemployed” who have been out of work for 99 weeks or longer, according to a new report from the Congressional Research Service.” Arthur Delaney chose to attack the 99er advocates when he wrote [emphasis mine]:

“The 1.4-million figure, calculated using the latest data available as of October, is much smaller than some home-cooked estimates circulated online by advocates for additional weeks of benefits for these “99ers.” Some of those estimates are as high as 7 million.”

Continue reading on Examiner.com: So…How many 99ers are really out there? And who is a 99er, anyway?  

Comments

4 thoughts on “CDLE reports unexplained drop in # of ‘very long-term’ unemployed: 99ers

  1. The US economy was in transition?

    Before the 19th c., primarily agrarian, to industrial, to the late 20th c. when the internet and Walmart started to take over.

    The modern economy apparently doesn’t  need 95% + employment to produce everything.

    In that transition I would expect that large numbers of people would work less than they would prefer and many would give up looking as they adjust to their new under employed status.

    Examples are numerous – Craigslist, email replacing paper mail, car production moving to Asia

    Here’s one that’s just starting.

    If (when) cars transition to mostly electric  instead of mostly gasoline, there will be much less need for auto mechanics.  A typical electric vehicle requires fluids once in awhile, and will need tire and brake replacement periodically, but all less than ICE.  

    EV’s will never need a head gasket. They will never need a valve adjustment. Changing the battery may be more complicated than it is now, but still easier than most of the heavy work on internal combustion engines require.

    So where do all those mechanics go?  They can’t all open tire shops.  And if recent experience is an indicator, they’ll mostly be “too old” to make a transition.

    1. I’ve glimpsed headlines over the past week predicting $5 a gallon gas by summer. If that’s a reasonable guess, what does that do to the vast amount of imported goods brought in by diesel-powered shipping? Our manufacturing base has eroded as cheap shipping and low overseas wages have made off-shoring a reasonable business choice. Our education system is even geared now toward funneling graduates into either the information or service sectors. When shipping costs start making local manufacturing a going concern again, will our unemployed be able to take advantage of it? What about high school graduates whose only saleable skills are retail, Powerpoint and social networking?

      1. If the cost of transportation ever equalizes the cost of manufaturing – and environmental concerns – then the capital for manufacturing stuff will return.  

        We’ve killed our middle class. Or allowed it to whither.

        But most Americans have electricity and heat and AC and transportation and better food than Louis XIV had. Hell, most of us probably eat better than Carnegie, Vanderbilt and Rockefeller.

  2. Today’s kids are noit trained to do much in the manufacturing segment, I’m sure.

    For now, we have heat…maybe I’m crazy, but the ‘speculative’ market (ie thieves  on Wall Street)always find an excuse to push futures prices higher…if gas hits $5/gallon how much will natural gas go up?

    And Yep-the middle class is being extinguished…what kills me is that half (or more) of the middle class just sits by idly -watching it happen.

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