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May 27, 2011 11:31 PM UTC

Would You Take Fiscal Policy Advice From This Guy?

  • 53 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“Economic expert” Eric Fruits. (photo via Twitter)

Right wing blogs, followed yesterday by the Colorado Senate Minority press office, are eagerly distributing a new “study” from a purported economic expert named Eric Fruits of Portland, Oregon. This “study,” according to local Republicans anyway, claims a revenue proposal from Sen. Rollie Heath to reset sales and income tax rates to 1999 levels–the rates before Gov. Bill Owens signed cuts of sales taxes to 2.9% from 3.0% and income taxes from 5.0% to 4.63%–would result in the loss of some 119,700 jobs in this state over the next five years. For real, says Mike Kopp!

Today Senate Republican leadership responded to the report issued by the Common Sense Policy Roundtable which confirms that the $3 billion tax increase championed by Boulder Senator Rollie Heath will have a negative impact on job creation in Colorado.

“This study is evidence that over 100,000 jobs could be on the line if Senator Heath’s tax increase passes,” said Senate Minority Leader Mike Kopp, R-Littleton. “Elected officials need to do more than just give lip-service on job creation policies. We must actively oppose proposals that we know will damage our economy and prevent economic recovery.”

According to the study, Heath’s $3 billion tax increase proposal would damage Colorado’s economic recovery and cost the state 119,700 jobs in just over 5 years. [Pols emphasis]

Assistant Senator Minority Leader Bill Cadman, R-Colorado Springs, said, “This report validates the concerns business leaders across the state have expressed to us over the year. They cannot continue to create jobs if we burden them with increased taxes. We’re listening to the concerns of the job creators in this state; we invite the Senate Democrats to do the same.”

Hilariously, even Fruits’ forecast appears to be misrepresented–it looks to us like the “job loss” number of “119,700” is fiction based on his own report, and Fruits’ prediction is actually much less than this. We think they produced it from a five-year running cumulative figure on Fruit’s chart, erroneously compounded for each year. If that’s right, this is one of the most embarrassingly wrong press releases from a Colorado elected official…ever? Even without that math failure, here’s an empirical bottom line that reveals this figure to be silly: according to the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, as of April 2011 there are 221,630 unemployed people in Colorado; with our unemployment rate slowly coming off of multi-decade highs.

So…the Senate GOP expects you to believe that we will increase the number of unemployed in Colorado by more than 50%…by returning to income and sales tax rates…from 1999. And while “economic expert” Fruits’ true prediction is somewhat less than the Senate GOP’s hysterical retelling of it, in both cases a very simple, self-evident question is presented.

Is Colorado’s economy better today than it was in 1999?

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53 thoughts on “Would You Take Fiscal Policy Advice From This Guy?”

    2. Not that I buy this number either, but this has to be one of the dumbest mistakes ever committed by the Senate Republicans. Who will trust their press releases ever again? I personally think they took it from Peak Politics without even checking the report to see if it’s accurate.

      So now Peak Politics is burning their own, in addition to feeding bullshit to the press. Nice.

      1. there was anybody out there who trusted a political party’s press release?

        Other than the boobs who bought Scott Tipton reducing federal spending by half (later amended to 10 percent?

        1. But the example you cite (Tipton) is just pie in the sky BS.

          In this, they actually made up wild figures that not even the study they cite contains. This is worse for their credibility – reporters don’t have time to check every line item and basic addition problem. Once they know that the Senate GOP’s information can’t be trusted for accuracy, they’ll avoid it like the plague.

          I still want to know who posted it first, the stupid right wing blog or the Senate GOP. I’d like it to be the Senate GOP, though if they didn’t it still means they reprinted Peak Politics BS without any critical thinking whatsoever.

          1. It’s not that they don’t have the time, they just won’t take the time. Checking things out? A foreign concept these days. Doing basic addition? Ditto.

            Reporters aren’t numbers people by inclination. But every newspaper and TV station has numbers people in the business part of the building.

            Don’t defend reporters for just being lazy. Or their editors, for letting them be lazy.

    3. Climate change, creationism, health care reform, class warfare by fake economics, weapons of mass destruction…

      Republicans lie all the time about everything; they are all liars.



      Fine. The self-interested wealthy and stupid people buy such arguments. My problem is really with the press who spend their time regurgitating Republican press releases, and even hire republican, libertarians and other anti-safety net ideologues to write on their editorial pages.

      Where is the editorial balance we might enjoy if the press gave equal time to communists and stalinists?

      99% of scientists vs Exxon PR flacks.

      Seriously, where is the editorial balance we would enjoy if the press hired actual economists and scientists to challenge the lies. The only reason we even have a debate about climate change is that the humonguous oil companies hire lawyers, advertising directors and press-agents to contaminate the public information well with false science.

      The reason we have a deficit is because the super-wealthy got huge tax cuts in the 200s and George Bush lied us into war. Laffer curve was an economics lie used to attack the middle class.

      1. not new. They are just no longer trying to hide them. Reagan cut loose the “Chicago Boys, North” to bring this nation to a free market. Thirty years later, we are witnessing the steps they are taking to destroy our democracy.

        A free market is extremely difficult to impose on a democratic nation. The economic pain is too great on too many people. The corporate oligarchy is doing every thing it can to limit the political influence of the majority of Americans, as in; working people, minorities, seniors, young adults, and the poor, because the free market must be installed on the backs of the poorest and weakest.

        I think a good example of a perfect free market was ancient Egypt.  

    4. It’s painful!  The writing is sophmoric  and when they try to be witty I actually hear cricket sounds emerge from my computer speakers and it just comes across and this inane, rude toddler speak.

      It’s worse than being trapped in an elevator with a sweaty fat guy who just finished eating the $5.99 all  you can eat clam special. It’s like… being forced to eat a doodoo sandwich. Wretched.

      Sorry Stephanie, but it’s true.  

  2. The economy was booming then, employers couldn’t find enough workers, the federal and CO state budgets were in surpluses (hence the reduction in sales and income tax rates).

    No correlation whatsoever.

     

    3. If you mean TABOR forced the state to refund everything beyond Doug Bruce’s starvation diet, and not equal in proportion to those who actually paid the tax, you’re correct.

      The point is that cutting these taxes failed to produce economic growth, the inverse of today’s prediction that raising them would reduce growth. 1990s tax rates were not harmful to the Colorado economy, as directly evidenced by the booming economy of the 1990s versus economic stagnation in the last decade when tax rates were lower.

      It’s empirical evidence, just as the Pols say. But it’s pretty hard to prove that these dire predictions are realistic when the inverse principle has been tested and doesn’t hold up.

      1. Starving government means starving jobs in so many sectors I wouldn’t know where to begin.  How  was that ever supposed to be good for the economy? Especially with so many jobs in traditional industries and manufacturing fleeing overseas?  Was starving government and shedding more jobs supposed to bring those lost jobs back?

        At least in the gilded age the big maganates invested in making things and building things. Now they just run up their accounts speculating and running ponzi schemes that create nothing but  wealth on paper for themselves. And pay low to no taxes on all of it .  No  private manufacturing empires.  No tax money for great public projects. No jobs.  Nada.

    4. Oh I know.

      A bunch of dumb fuck Republicans who drove the economy off the cliff with their tax cuts and wars.  During that period of Republican rule corporations out sourced millions of jobs and hired illegals by the thousands to drive down working class wages.  Our own dearly departed QWest outsource their customer support services to India.  They tanked the economy and cost the state thousands of jobs that haven’t come back.

      Do you remember any of that disaster period Allyn or are you too big of a Republican slut to fess up to what a cluster fuck Republicans are with the economy?  

      Republicans aren’t any better at job creation than they were at finding bin Laden.  For them to be using fraudulent data to scare people about tomorrow is just more typical bullshit that people like Allyn slurp up without a second thought.  

      1. Didn’t I make the point the economy was great and at full employment when we had higher tax rates ??  That’s why I said there is no correlation between a supposedly higher tax rate and higher unemployment and why the Fruit “study” is bullshit.

        Republican slut? Never been a Republican in my life, in 40 years of voting I’ve voted for one Republican. I completely agree Bush and associates tanked the economy with bogus wars and “borrow and spend” fiscal policies.  

        1. I wasn’t sure, so I figured I’d answer nicely instead of ripping you. Glad I did.

          Note to self: sometimes it’s better not to rip them first. 🙂

        2. Sorry Allyn.

          I had writer’s trigger finger.  I was itching to use slut ever since it got Ed in trouble.

          I’m probably a bad person and a worse writer but it is a free for all at Pols so I don’t deny that I find it fun to write wicked things about Republicans.  What stooges.

          My apologies.  

        3. has determined that this was an avoidable friendly fire incident.

          The offending blogger, a known hothead and all around rude person, interpreted the comment as a criticism of the current situation by comparison with a prior period whereupon he/she went native with the material and had a predisposition to strive for ultra-rude in his/her reply.

          The offended blogger was the adult in the situation and delivered a reply that was the definition of class and light hearted rebuke.

          The board finds that the offending blogger should contribute 20 pounds of non-perishable food to his/her local food bank as restitution and is on his/her honor to complete said task.

          The board also finds that raw words that evoke crudity and sexism are best reserved for a total nuke situation where the density of the other party would make it impossible to interpret such comments as anything other than an accurate portrayal of a low moral character.

          Offending blogger is also advised to publicly proclaim that offended blogger is a person of fine moral character and capable of writing with far more insight and humor than the vulgar tantrums of an idiot.

          Hence forth the board will monitor the Colorado Pols dairies and access food bank penalties depending on the dog food quality of the comments.  The dumber the post the more pounds the penalty.

  3. If you read this guy’s bio he cites a number of areas of expertise in economics, statistics and business analysis with the omission of anything related to “Impact of State Tax Rates on Employment.”

    He also refers to himself as “Dr.” Fruits on his bios and LinkedIn page but doesn’t list where he got a doctorate. Weird, huh?

    1. According to three minutes looking on Google.

      http://www.econinternational.c…

      Yeesh, I get that everyone on here doesn’t like his conclusions, but I fail to understand the eagerness to smear the guy as some sort of charlatan with fake credentials just because he’s on the opposite side of the political spectrum and has a funny name.

      1. I seem to recall that Republicans got all butt hurt and were in denial about some guy with a funny sounding name who rose above his station in life to become a renowned leader of the free world.  Funny how you folks only hold Democrats to a standard of rational discourse.

        1. It’s news to me that I’m the resident “birther.”

          No, no. You’re right. Everyone should lower themselves to that level because of the tea-baggers. Hey, let’s see his LONG-FORM DIPLOMA! Even better, let’s pull a Loughner on him. Tit-for-tat, dude.

          Shame on you and everyone who takes that despicable attitude. You’re everything that is wrong with American politics and just as bad as the birthers and teabaggers if you want to use their behavior as an excuse to act like them.

          2. I’m a terrible person Leonard and a degenerate and lots of other adjectives.

            Oh and fuck off ya baby.  Some clown who publishes a paper that is riddled with guesses and dismisses future employment is bullshit and the odds are that he knows who is paying his salary and his research dovetails what they want.  In business we call them consultants.

  5. calculated the number of jobs gained because of the investment in education and the availability to companies of an educated work force?

    Seriously aren’t we supposed to be concerned about long term and sustainable economies?  The goal of investing in education is to reap the rewards of innovation and a skilled work force.  The Republican position is that anyone who isn’t rich is fungible with illegal immigrants who why pay to help educate them when you don’t believe in a meritocracy where people without inherited wealth can achieve great things.

      1. The Republican solution to everything is to do nothing because to do anything means that tomorrow will be worse than today.  They always assume a static world that will magically right itself with no human intervention.  The dinosaurs had a similar approach.

  7. Every year, for 5 years, progressively more jobs will be lost. The sum total will be 119,000.

    RBI and protect Colorado Communities claimed the ugly 3 would kill 75,000 jobs.

    IT appears one side claims tax hikes kills jobs and the other side claims tax hikes makes jobs. One side claims tax reductions kill jobs, the other side claims tax reduction create jobs.

    Are you an Austrian or a Keynesian?

    Regardless of taxation and its effect on jobs, taxation will always be theft.

    2. Would you PLEASE read the fucking report before you try to comment on it? You’re as bad as Sen. Mike Kopp himself! That’s an insult btw, he is an idiot like you. Chart, so you don’t even have to know how to fucking READ:

      There is no “sum total” of 119,000, you dumbfuck. Fruity “predicts” 30k in TOTAL job losses by 2017 under the Heath proposal. Period.

      I like most every one else think this 30,000 number is complete horseshit, but you, like Sen. Kopp, are taking the horseshit and multiplying it, because you are both apparently fucking idiots who do not know how to read. Very sad for the Senate Minority Leader, I don’t know what your problem is.

      Sorry to be a dick, but it’s really insufferable. You are wasting my time just by posting your nonsense where I can see it. It’s hardly worth my time to set idiots like you straight, do you understand that at least?

      Next!

        1. Because of the existence and activities of the fire department I am able to get more reasonable home insurance coverage even though I live in a wildfire designated zone.

          According to Mark G. all taxes are theft.  I pay taxes for the operation of the volunteer fire department therefore according to Mark G. the fire department is stealing from me.  I don’t think the fire department is stealing from me.  I think I am being personally responsible by contributing my share to the safety of my community.

          It is the Mark G’s of the world who are the enemies of a better tomorrow. They are short sighted shitheads who are only concerned about themselves and buying that next bottle of Jack Daniels instead of paying for better fire protection.  What a fucking nitwit who is too fucking stupid to understand that we are all in it together and need to contribute our fair share.

      3. who deny all the studies and findings on Climate Change.  There have been thousands of  studies on Climate Change and they still deny that it is a real condition but one bullshit study on the effects of investing in education and they demand that everyone except it as fact.

        I personally think you were being too courteous to this fool.  

  9. The fundamental premise of this study is totally wrong. Want to know what the biggies issue the state impacts that my company faces?

    Is it taxes? no.

    Is it that some state departments are totally honked up? no.

    Is it the software sales tax, the amazon tax, the new medical legislation? no, no, no.

    Is it regulation? no.

    It’s the lack of qualified people to hire. That’s a bigger problem than everything else combined. Much bigger.

    Raise my taxes and increase then number of qualified job applicants and at the end of the day I’ll be making a lot more money. And I’ll be employing a lot more people.

    The biggest problem we face is an inadequate educational system (K-12 and higher ed). And that is fundamentally (not solely) due to inadequate tax revenue.

  10. So if Heath’s measures would cost Colorado 119,700 jobs then, by that same thinking, the CFPI measures would have cost the state…wait for it….

    333,000 jobs

    which would double our current unemployment numbers.

    My state Senator is a fucking dumbass.

  11. Tax increases move money from private sector to public sector. You will have less to spend, they will have more.

    Job loss/creation prediction is nearly impossible. Some corporations may leave the State, others may come.  Will the money be wasted of put to good use?

    There are more factors than even Eric Fruits can predict.

    That is the problem with all anti free marketers; they have no understanding of the sheer complexity of markets. 4 trillion decisions per second!

    One thing is for sure, any taxation above and beyond the amount required to build basic, efficient infrastructure is pure slavery. Giant Blue Devil horse is one example of taxation slavery.

    1. Aphorisms as Pearls of Economic Wisdom, like Chauncey Gardiner the gardner in “Being There”. Note the last scene where the tomb is inscribed “Rand is Dead”.

      Libertarianism is a cover for creating an American Aristocracy.

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