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June 30, 2022 10:07 AM UTC

Polis is "Clearly Favored" in General Election

  • 18 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Republicans selected Hiedi Heidi Ganahl to be their nominee for Governor this fall against incumbent Democrat Jared Polis and American Constitution Party hopeful Danielle Neuschwanger. Ganahl has thus far seemed uninterested, unable, or unwilling to pivot toward a broader group of Colorado voters, but that may not matter much according to one national projection.

As 538.com sees Colorado’s race for Governor, Polis is expected to win re-election in just about any way you look at the race:

Via 538.com

 

Yikes! Those are not encouraging numbers for Ganahl, but perhaps she can channel her inner Lloyd Christmas in the meantime:

 

As of today, 538.com projects that Polis will defeat Ganahl by about 13 points in November.

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18 thoughts on “Polis is “Clearly Favored” in General Election”

  1. I must say that I don't take much issue with the predictions ….

    2022 FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

    Although I don't think they give Warnock enough credit in light of the most recent poll showing him up by 10%.

    The House is gone; the only question is by how much. 

    Call me an optimist but I can still see a 50/50 Senate next year. Which means Biden gets his judicial and non-judicial appointments confirmed.

    And Biden will be acquitted after each time the House impeaches him.

    1. House "generic ballot" is running R +2.1 at 538.com …. but if you take only those polls looking at Adults or Registered Voters, Democrats are up.  Most recently, YouGov for Yahoo News sees Democrats up +7 for both adults and Registered Voters.

      So, the snapshot this week would say the House isn't "gone" —

      Supreme Court has just made certain that reproductive health, environment, Native American, and gun control advocates are going to be activated for Democrats.  seems to me that provides a fighting chance for the House, and a better than average chance for the Senate to bump up by one or two Democrats.

      1. I agree, JiD. Not that they're supposed to care about the politics (yeah, right) but I believe that with Alito and Thomas being the next most likely to leave the Court, one way or another, these decisions will light a fire under all sorts of marginalized groups. Republicans (especially McConnell) thought they were clever barring the door against Garland and slamming Barrett through, but I think it's going to blow up on them next November like a loaded cigar.  

      2. Rhode Island hasn’t elected a Republican House member in almost 30 years. But that is about to change.

        Rhode Island 2nd District : U.S. House : 2022 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

        Or this Nevada seat currently held by a Democrat:

        Nevada 3rd District : U.S. House : 2022 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

        Or this Michigan House seat currently held by a Democrat:

        Michigan 7th District : U.S. House : 2022 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

        Al Lawson only trailing by 3% is actually something of a bright spot:

        Florida 2nd District : U.S. House : 2022 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

        The “generic ballot” is precisely that. But put names into the poll and the results look different.

        Now if gas is only $2.00/gallon and food costs are coming down in November, then Biden will be celebrated as an economic genius – like the scandal-scarred Bill Clinton was in 1998.

        But barring some economic miracle, this is going to be like 1994 and 2010 all over again. 

        The Dems lose the House but narrowly keep the Senate – in large part because the GOP nominates unelectable candidates (see, Walker, Hershel and Oz, Mehmet).

            1. There actually is a plausible path to 52. If Dems holding their endangered seats (GA, AZ, NV and NH), and pick up PA (where Fetterman is leading) and flip WI (where Johnson and all of the Dems are in statistical ties), the Senate ends up being 52/48.

              But, of course, the House goes to the crazies.

              Here's an interesting hypothetical:

              By October, inflation starts to cool off, the situation in Ukraine stabilizes, and pro-choice women (and men) are still angry over Dobbs. The results of the House races are:

              215 Democrats

              215 Trump Republicans

              5 anti-Trump Republicans (i.e., Nancy Mace, Liz Cheney, Brian Fitzpatrick, Jamie Herrera Butler, and David Valadao).

              Would the anti-Trump Republicans be willing to work with Dems to organize the House?

              Would the Dems be willing to work with the anti-Trump Republicans to organize the House? 

                1. You're probably right but there may end up being another anti-Trump House member to take her place. Maybe Nick Begich in Alaska who owes nothing to Trump since he bestowed his blessing upon Caribou Barbie.

                2. Judging by last night‘s debate, if Wyoming voters pick one of the other candidates, they only have themselves to blame. We may have our own version of this if we have a Polis/Ganahl//New swinger debate.

                   

                    1. And sadly, she is probably going to lose the primary to Hageman.

                      Was Liz Cheney the only one who spoke in understandable English? 

                1. Yes, I don't think that the Wizard of Oz pulls this rabbit out of a hat come November.

                  In addition to not getting much lift from the top of the ticket (Mastriano is staying within shouting distance of Shapiro but if he isn't leading now, he probably won't be in November), Oz has the problem of running as a Turkish citizen in the Party of Xenophobia and Islamophobia.

                  It's a good thing he didn't renounce his Turkish citizenship. Maybe next time he can run for the Turkish parliament.

  4. Where is Moderatus at a time like this? Shouldn't he be here telling us how much we should fear Hiedi Heidi and Joe?

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