May 07, 2012 10:43 PM UTC

Latest Gallup Poll Claims Tightening Swing-State Race

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• by: Colorado Pols

From Gallup’s memo out today, a swing-state poll that naturally includes Colorado:

In the first USA Today/Gallup swing-state poll conducted since Mitt Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee, Romney and President Barack Obama are nearly tied — 45% vs. 47%, respectively — among registered voters in the 12 battleground states that make up the poll.

The presumptive Republican nominee is better positioned today than he was in March, when USA Today/Gallup found Obama leading by nine percentage points among swing-state voters. Romney now roughly matches his standing earlier in the year, before he secured the Republican nomination…

While Obama edges out Romney by two points in the overall preferences of swing-state registered voters, he has a four-point advantage with respect to solid supporters: 36% of swing-state voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama in November, while 32% are certain they will vote for Romney. Each candidate’s remaining supporters — the 11% who favor Obama and the 13% favoring Romney — say there is a chance they could change their mind between now and the election. An additional 7% of voters are undecided, meaning a total of 31% of swing-state voters are not firmly committed at this time.

Obama’s swing-state prospects also look a bit brighter than Romney’s on the basis of voter enthusiasm. More than half of Obama’s supporters, 55%, are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in this year’s presidential election, up from 49% saying this in March. By contrast, 46% of Romney’s supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic, unchanged from 47% in March. Today’s figures reflect a reversal from January, when 55% of Romney voters were extremely or very enthusiastic, compared with 50% of Obama voters.

The shift in enthusiasm away from Mitt Romney toward supporters of President Barack Obama is significant, even as the decline in overt attacks on Romney from challengers now departing the race allows his numbers to stabilize. Sort of stabilize, says USA Today:

By a yawning 27 points, those surveyed describe Obama as more likable than Romney – not a frivolous asset. The candidate viewed as more likable has prevailed in every election since 1980. Even among Romney’s supporters, one in four call Obama more likable.

By 10 points, voters say Obama is more likely to care about the needs of people like themselves. By 7 points, they call Obama a stronger and more decisive leader.

With this poll, both sides can claim positive trajectories, and Romney’s narrowing of the top line number is undeniable. It’s a delicate proposition for either side to reach the 7% of undecided voters (and 24% “loosely committed” voters) in this poll with a winning message, while still keeping the partisan base motivated. But again and again, likability in these early polls is what seems to best predict where we’ll be once voters are really paying attention.

That’s still going to be late August, despite what it looks like during commercial breaks.