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June 05, 2012 10:53 PM UTC

Wisconsin Recall Election Discussion Thread

  • 73 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE #2: So much for that–major networks call Wisconsin gubernatorial recall for Scott Walker, now leading by a very comfortable margin with 55% of precincts reporting.

—–

UPDATE 7:10PM MDT: With the polls closed in Wisconsin, exit polling indicates an extremely close race–closer than recent predictions of a 3-5 point Scott Walker victory.

—–

All eyes on Madison (for now), as the Christian Science Monitor reports:

The national news media are riveted by the contest, and that will magnify the result. A loss for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, the Democratic challenger, will be seen as a blow to Mr. Obama and his prospects for November. After all, Wisconsin is a battleground state. A win for Mayor Barrett, the underdog, will be seen as a significant boost to Obama, on the heels of bad economic news.

But the impact will fade fast, political observers say.

“It’s June,” says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville. “Yes, a victory by Walker will give Republicans a burst of energy, but will it last five months? No way.”

Still, there will be one lasting implication: A Walker victory will force the Obama campaign to expend resources – time, money, volunteer effort – that it might otherwise not have had to. And those are resources that will be taken from campaign efforts in other states.

Obama won Wisconsin big in 2008 – by 14 percentage points. As of now, outside observers see Wisconsin as leaning Democratic, so while it’s not a sure thing for Obama, it’s a state he should win this November.

A poll follows–answer before Wisconsin’s polls close for full credit.

Will the outcome of the Wisconsin recall election affect the presidential election in November?

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73 thoughts on “Wisconsin Recall Election Discussion Thread”

  1. Also, let’s not get carried away, as this is the the csm and the faux news troll larry sabato.

    Sabato’s like Major Garrett, Howard Fineman, and Joe Scarborough. Always leaning right, predicting “dire results” for Democrats, extolling the “virtues” of the reds.

    Wisconsin’s in heavy vote mode. Yes, there’s a rash of supposed “out of ballots” claims in heavily Democratic precincts by the SOS office, tales of “van loads of undocumented immigrants rushing the polling places” by walker “poll watchers” and much boasting by repub surrogates about “unregistered, trouble making Barrett voters being turned away”, but this thing looks very close.

    For what it’s worth, in trade’s calling walker at a 93% chance of surviving, but with the turnout this high, I’m confident walker will be pushed very hard, and maybe beaten.

    It would be nice to see walker indicted, arrested and doing the scott walk.

    Let’s hope.  

    1. So either Walker stays Gov and continues his destruction until he gets perp walked outta office or we get to see a jubilant Barret.

      Lt. Gov Kleefisch might stay and get her ass in the seat once Scottie is convicted and then she’ll be just a rubber stamp for any & all Scottie underwriters or hopefully she’s also shown the door.

      3 GOP Senators also in recall plus one open GOP Senate seat so let’s wish for the best. WI Senate is split 16:16 so Dems need just one to ruin Scottie’s day while GOP needs  all 4 to run roughshod over the 99%.    

      Regardless, I don’t think WI is any kind of referendum on Obama admin or Dems in general but more a test bed of the power to buy states to push US toward a Shock Doctrine situation.  The powers & money behind today’s GOP wants to sell the commons, privatize social services, and pillage pensions & retirement.  Idiots that keep Walker in office are too deceived to know what’s best for themselves.  

      1. but he shouldn’t be lumped together with the others either. At most he’s a moderate liberal. He tends to be a bit guarded with his personal politics as far as I can tell.

      2. I also had a problem with the poll, so ditto on AGOP.

        Rocco spends plent of time in fantasyland reading fanalysis of fun fallacious facts developed by flexibly free political funsters.

        Here are some data points from WI Source: http://www.wisgov.state.wi.us

        In January 2011, the State of Wisconsin faced a state budget deficit of $3.6 billion.

        According to the PEW Center on the States Wisconsin was a state in fiscal peril.1 Per capita, Wisconsin had one of the largest deficits in the nation at $3.6 billion. In mid-2010, Wisconsin’s fiscal health was the fifth worst in the nation according to the Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance. Only Illinois, California, New York, and Connecticut were worse.

        The results of Governor Walker’s budget and budget reforms are clear. The budget was rated credit positive by Moody’s while other states such as Minnesota and Illinois saw their credit rating downgraded. After years of billion dollar deficits, Wisconsin passed a budget that projected a surplus.

        Instead of double digit tax increases, Governor Walker held the line on taxes that threaten Wisconsin’s economic growth. In 2010, ten percent of employers said Wisconsin was on the right path. Now, after Governor Walker’s reforms, 94 percent say the state is on the right path. Wisconsin’s unemployment rate of 6.8 percent is now at its lowest level since 2008.

        1. Wisconsin needed tough medicine due to the extreme hole dug there by Democrats. Walker is being attacked for cleaning up a huge mess.

          When he prevails, it will stand as a repudiation of big government liberalism.

              1. I’m seeing the GOP retaining every seat by a 60/40 margin.

                What does this say about Obama’s chances. I know the Dems have tried to cast WI and the Presidential races as totally different, but that’s what happens when you realize your proposal to the voters was a sham.

                Funny thing too, if they weren’t the same race then why did Obama avoid WI like the plague?

                Worse tonight, POTUS Clinton comes out tonight countering Obama on the end of year tax cuts that will kick in unless Obama decides to raise them.

                And last and worst in many hearts must be today’s news that Hispanic, youth and black unemployment has skyrocketed on Obama’s watch.

                This is really looking a lot worse for Obama than I ever imagined.

                1. This is really looking a lot worse for Obama than I ever imagined

                  I’m sure you have imagined it in many horrible punitive ways.

                  Guess what though, Libby. Obama isn’t running against Scott Walker. Check the returns in the presidential preference exit polling.

                  This is a severe blow to the union movement, to be sure. Let’s hope it points out how important it is that progressives and moderates get busy. There are too many low information voters who can be swayed by big money media.

                  I think, perhaps, too many non-union workers and small business owners don’t realize how union wages elevate their own incomes. Scott Walker played on the resentment too many have for those “over paid union workers”.  

                2. then why did Romney avoid Walker and WI like the plague?

                  I have yet to here a coherent explanation on that one. Perhaps you could provide one.  

                  1. Besides, Walker can and has stood on the merits of his government reforms. Romney is classy, this is Walkkers win and it’s a clear contrast to the leadership Obama has provided.

                    Hell, WI has a lower Unemployment rate then CO…maybe It’s something for Hick to build off of. 😉

                    1. Why didn’t Romney come out with support for Walker? Why didn’t he visit WI? He’s running for President? Why is it different for him than Obama, Libertad? Romney ran like a 6th grader away from this recall and has stayed as far away from it as possible.

                      Again, why is that? Do try and just answer that question, if you could, please. Because so far, all you have done is dodged it as much as Romney has dodged WI.

                    3. who seethes with hatred towards your president every morning when you open your eyes.  You’re no patriot asshole.

        2. and blow your Walker propaganda webpage out of the water, but I can’t a find a picture.

          It’s the only way you and Arapabot could understand it…

          1. Here:

            Gov. Walker says Wisconsin has added 33,200 jobs since he became governor

            Rating – Mostly false


            Walker’s ad says there are 33,200 more jobs in Wisconsin since he took office.

            To reach the number, he combined two data sets — one that involves unofficial (but generally more accurate) numbers that could change in the weeks after the election; the other is volatile, but still official monthly numbers. From an accounting standpoint this would be flagged as a mistake. From a political standpoint, he is mixing and matching to present the best possible view.

            Walker presents it all as final and official, offering no cautionary notes or caveats — even though there are many.

            And Walker credits his policies for the improvement, which overstates the impact a governor can make on broad economic trends in a short period of time.

            http://www.politifact.com/wisc…

  4. Yesterday a GOP affiliated group apparently robocalled recall petition signers and told them their signature on the recall petition was their vote and they didn’t have to vote today.

    Today we have GOP tweeters alleging that Detroit Democrats are busing in Michiganders to vote in Wisconsin.  (As dKos points out, it would take half of Greyhound’s entire fleet to bus in enough people to make a difference in the election, but since we’re already in CT territory, might I suggest that this is why Greyhound keeps a secret fleet of buses in Chicago to begin with?)

    Both sides are reporting heavy turnout in their areas.

    1. The Madison clerk’s office expects 119% of their registered voters list to vote today.  (Yes, I left the wording like that to tweak AGOP…)  You see, Wisconsin has same-day voter registration, and in Madison it’s expected that enough people will register during the day to bring the total number of voters up to 119% of yesterday’s voter registration list.

      In Milwaukee, the city has called up a reserve cadre of elections helpers to deal with a massive voting turnout.

      Several Republican areas are reporting turnout similar to the 2008 Presidential election.

      1. You know, protect the fraud process they’ve structured.

        I love it, every kid at the UW from out of state just decided to show up and register along with the illegal aliens that cut the UW grass and empty the trash.

        That friends is how you get 119% turnout. Just imagine what you all can do in Greeley, Boulder and FTC.

        Heck maybe run a bill next session that allows COPIRGto conduct voter registration …. you know a public-private partnership.

  5. bought a lot of organizing for Republicans that they wouldn’t have had otherwise. That will help them in November, but only in Wisconsin.

    OTOH, if Walker is indicted before November, all that money was wasted.

  6. This will show the effectiveness of both sides’ ground game.

    November is going to be won and lost during GOTV. If Dem’s win tonight, their ballot chase methods were effective and the Reps methods were not, in which case, Reps will need to find a way to step of their game in November. If Reps win tonight, Dems will have to find a way to up their ballot chase programs.

    The Presidential election is not won or lost here tonight, but it will have an affect on how many phone calls and door knocks we get this fall.  

    1. if the DNC had pulled their heads out of their asses and coughed up $500K for this one, which was all the recall effort folks were asking for.

      Your point is dead on–this was a great place to build our GOTV effort and would have well been worth the investment in time and dime.  

      1. 1,000,000 sigs and a recall election didn’t happen by itself.

        When ASFCME lost 10-20,000 forced dues paying “members” in WI government jobs they had to take action.

        1. Or you don’t understand even the most basic concepts of national party committees and what they do.

          And why is that not surprising?  

            1. so we can have a real conversation here, will you? It’s pretty clear the DNC did not want to be tied to a potential loss and wanted to distance themselves, at the expense of WI Democrats. And that was a stupid fucking move because they just blew an opportunity to motivate the base, expand their GOTV and grassroots networks and show some good will towards the little guy doing all the heavy lifting on the ground.

              Come on, man. I’m one of the few people here that replies to you without taking cheap shots and insulting you ad nauseum. At least have the courtesy to reply to me in kind. If you can’t manage that, ignore me altogether. Alright?

              1. I saw Wassermen on TV this weekend and she clearly backed Barrett, to the point of claiming the win for him….she was sure of it.

                I guess she didn’t put your money where her mouth was, I can understand that people would not be happy with her half baked approach. On the other hand, she probably felt those $s needed to support Obama in the national….better uses.

                1. and there is nothing I detest more than the national committees, be it the DNC, DCCC or DSCC. They consistently screw their own candidates over and base their support almost completely on candidate’s fundraising and polls.

                  I’ve met plenty of folks from the Republican side of the aisle that work on campaigns and they feel the same way about their national committees. I know it’s the nature of the beast but it’s ugly and depressing, none the less.

                  So yes, the DNC most certainly did not put its money where its mouth was. I wish I could say I’m surprised by the DNC’s actions here but that would be a lie. I’m not surprised. Just eternally disappointed.

                  I don’t think she felt the $$$ were better spent on the presidential campaign. I think the DNC’s motivations were much simpler and far more slimy and straightforward–don’t put cash into a losing race so they can distance themselves from it as much as possible.

                  Politics is a dirty business. Sometimes I wonder why I continue to be so fascinated by it.

                  I’m off to get drunk. Have a good night and if you find anything current from Schrager, I’d appreciate it if you’d post it in a reply to me so I can see it tomorrow, hearty hangover and all.  

        2. I have some friends in Wisconsin who just happen to agree with the recall and have been very active in it.  But one is neither a government worker nor union member, and the other is state college staff/contractor but I don’t think in the union.

          They’re both active because what Walker has done has hurt Wisconsin – no conspiratorial union connections to be seen.

          BTW – if Walker was so concerned about the state budget, why did he give out tax breaks to well-off corporations?

    2. Given the apparently high turnout, if Walker squeaks this out it will be a testament to what $30m in ads and voter turnout can do for the GOP.  GOP supporters were going the extra mile in voter turnout today to try and offset the traditionally strong Democratic GOTV machine in Wisconsin.  An (R) win today will be a sign that it worked.

      If Barrett wins today, I think the message is different: that no amount of Republican GOTV can overcome a truly motivated opposition in Wisconsin.  Key words: “truly motivated”.  This isn’t a normal election – it’s one where Democrats found enough recall signers to almost match Walker’s 2008 total vote count.

      Walker is a divisive figure who has stirred up the state; if he loses, it’s his own fault.  You don’t generally lose a recall election unless the voters are pissed off.

  7. in the Presidentail race.  It hasn’t gone Republican in a presidential race since Reagan’s landslide win in 1984…(Bush 1 couldn’t even carry it over the hapless Dukakis) and it isn’t going to flip this year either.  If Walker prevails tonight, Romney may decide to drop some money there but it would be as wasted as Obama dropping money on Georgia.  

    1. In presidential elections in Wisconsin 2008 was 56% D to 42% R, 2004 was 49 % D to 45 % R, 2000 was a squeaker at 48 % D and 48 % R and 96 was 49 % D to 39 % R.

      Why is the national media calling it a swing/battleground state ?

      1. and we are SO bored! So why not pretend a recall is a referendum on Obama?

        I haven’t been following it, really, but I’ve often wondered what a “win” looks like for Walker. I don’t want to make it seem like I’m backing off of anything though, you know?

        In my little mind, if Walker comes within 5% of becoming the third governor to be sent packing, ever, he’s lost anyway. Can you imagine being Walker at 75? “Remember that time I nearly made history by being so fucking inept? I had to piss people off uphill, both ways!” Such a success.

  8. we are dealing with some very serious people who do not know how to accept defeat.

    Many progressives do not understand the depth of the fear, hatred, and zealous resolve that drive people like Walker. They never give up. It will take a resounding defeat, both now and in November, to even get them to back off a little.  

  9. IF this jackass governor manages to hold on to his seat less than half-way through his term, it’ll be because money can buy election now.

    The GOP wants a Walker win to be some sort of comment or pronouncement about the presidential race, or a death knell for unions, or even that Wisconsin will suddenly become a battleground state. It will mean none of these things.

    If Walker wins, he gets to hold his seat until he’s indicted. That’s it.

    P.s. Part of the problem is the media wanting it to mean more than it does also. They’re just as guilty as the GOP but with different motives.

      1. It’s always nice to be missed. School/life was a bit intense last two semesters. But I took the summer off of classes so you should see more of me.

    1. Including the AP.

      Weird too since there are still people in line waiting to vote.

      God, I bet Adam Schrager is having a field day up there with this one. What a great political year to decide to move to Wisconsin.  

      2. Are there any live websites tracking this?

        Have Adam done any videosonthis or pieces you might reference. You seem to be very close to him.

        1. I linked to the AP above and here’s one that breaks it down by county. Click on Live Results Map to see the county breakdown.

          No, I don’t know Adam personally. Have never met him. Just admired his even handed style of reporting. He announced he was moving, for family reasons, to Wisconsin last year and if there was ever great timing political wise, this is certainly it.  

  11. Is the incredible corrupting influence of massive amounts of money poured into campaigns. The money buys the win. And the chase for money corrupts the candidates – on both sides.

    The fundamental issue we should focus on is fixing the source of money and where/how it is spent. And that starts with accepting that limits will always be evaded.

      1. Y’know, when he spends massive amounts of money to win an election?

        I can’t wait to see what incoherent verbal gyrations you’re going to put us thru trying to explain that…

    3. So long as we don’t modify the Constitution, you’re correct – limits can be easily evaded.

      You’re not going to fix the amount of money being donated to Republicans over Democrats – there’s simply more money to be invested from people who have more money to invest in continuing to have more money.

      But a number of nations (see the UK for an example) limit a broad category of electioneering speech during the campaign, and limit the campaign to a fixed time frame.  It seems to work for them much better than our own system is.  A carefully crafted Constitutional amendment could effect some of that level of restriction, allowing us to put real per-donor restrictions on campaign spending.

      Until (if ever) that happens, Democrats may be best served by finding someone willing to buy CNN outright, ’cause right now we only get comparable talking head time to Republicans on a few shows at MSNBC.

  12. Walker beats Barrett by 1% point more than he did in 2010.  Lt. governor cruises to victory.  All four GOP state senators easily win.  Ho hum!

    What was proven, however, is that voters have wised up to public sector unions.  Granting them collective bargaining rights merely lets them bargain against the taxpayers.  

  13. Craig Gilbert

    The Wisconsin Voter

    The Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert explores political trends in a purple state and beyond.

    2012 election sure looks like 2010 election

    By Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel

    June 5, 2012 10:02 p.m.

    In the end, after all the ground-breaking rancor and conflict and money and attention, the 2012 election for governor looked a lot like the 2010 election for governor.

    Just as he did against Democrat Tom Barrett in 2010, Republican Gov. Scott Walker:

       won men and lost women.

       lost voters under 30 and won every other age group

       won independents and lost moderates.

       lost college grads and won voters without a college degree.

       lost union households badly.

       lost lower-income voters and won everyone else.

       won almost all Republicans and lost almost all Democrats.

       won rural and suburban voters and lost urban voters.

    The same two candidates meet in two elections, separated by 19 months and a major political inferno.

    But electoral history repeats itself.

    All that bluster and nothing changed.

  14. It appears Democrats have retaken sole control of the Wisconsin State Senate; one of the four Senate recall races, SD-21, went to the Democratic challenger by a very narrow margin.

    This doesn’t mean much for the rest of the year, mind you – like Colorado, Wisconsin has a part-time legislature that has already let out for the season.  Also, sensing a change in the will of the voters, one moderate Republican (Sen. Dale Schultz) has been blocking many of the unpopular Republican proposals from sailing through the Senate since one of the original Republican 2012 recall targets resigned rather than face a recall challenge, changing the balance there to an evenly split body.  So what this means is that Democrats can prevent any further backslide, even if Sen. Schultz decides to vote once again with his Republican colleagues.  Hopefully this restores some sense of collaboration between the two parties, though given the depth of the rift I wouldn’t be to positive about that.

    1. This November, 16 of the 33 Senate seats in WI will be up for grabs.  So, this is largely a symbolic victory.  Still, in at least one race, the people won over the Right Wing Money Machine.  That is some consolation.

  15. Okay, so having seen the night’s results from Wisconsin, I pretty much stand by my earlier assessment, but with some extra details to fill in.

    1. The GOP had a massive GOTV effort for this recall, pulling in as many voters as they did for the 2008 Presidential race, and more than they had for the 2010 governor’s race.  They’ve figured out how to drive their voters to the polls in support of their candidate.
    2. Democrats didn’t seal the deal.  Tom Barrett pulled in barely more votes than the petition gatherers managed to find.  This might have been enough in a regular recall election, but not with the GOP pouring in $30 million.
    3. Yes, $30 million, to Barrett’s $3 million.  He was outspent 10 to 1 to give Walker a seven point victory.  Most of that, according to a post-race analysis, comes from a loophole in Wisconsin state election law that allowed Walker to collect unlimited amounts of money from donors since December (when a Republican fake recall was pulled to allow Walker to collect more money sooner), while Barrett was limited to regular campaign contribution limits for a more limited period of time.
    4. It appears the state GOP might be in trouble with that robocall telling petition signers that they didn’t need to vote.  The phone number of that call was captured, and it points back to a GOP robocall phone bank. This won’t affect the recall vote, but could provide entertainment long after the recall smoke has settled.
    5. Part of the Democratic voter turnout problem may have been the timing; colleges are out of session, and Walker lost that demographic tonight. There’s not much that could be done to help that; they took out petitions as soon as they were able, but Republican fake primary candidates and delays caused by turning in lots of signatures for 6 races (Gov, Lt. Gov, and the Senate races) moved the date beyond the date Democrats really wanted.
    6. Another part of Democratic turnout shortfalls was the lack of turnout outside of urban areas. This seems to be a perennial issue – not enough GOTV to get out the party’s voters outside of the strongholds – where’s Howard Dean when you need him to remind you to go after all voters everywhere?
    7. The recall results apparently don’t reflect voter sentiment at the national level; exit polls showed a significant advantage to Obama even while showing a Walker win.
    8. What this probably means is that many voters just weren’t convinced that Walker deserved to be recalled, and some who were just against recalls in general.
    9. Regardless, this recall was pretty much unprecedented in turnout, and had a high percentage of previously unregistered voters participating. That is, I think, a good sign that the country isn’t completely apathetic to voting.
    10. Lastly, and this is pretty much a partisan point: Democrats now have a 17-16 majority in a State Senate that two years ago was 14-19 Republican…  To anyone who says the recalls have been pointless, how many extreme bills will pass now that there’s a split legislature?

      1. State Senate – District 21 – Special General

        60 of 60 Precincts Reporting – 100%

        Lehman, John          Dem    36,255    51%
Wanggaard, Van (i)    GOP    35,476    49%

        I don’t have a good news link for it, though, although even a search last night in Google on Lehman Wisconsin Senate recall came up with some hits; someone copied and pasted the above stats over at dKos.

        1. Last night was a tough night for us in Wisconsin. After being outspent 8 to 1 by Scott Walker and the billionaire Koch brothers, we lost the gubernatorial recall.

          But what the national media is not telling you is: I am the new Democratic Senate Majority Leader after winning an important Senate recall election by just hundreds of votes.

          Starting today, Senate Democrats will be a strong check on Scott Walker’s power. If Walker tries to pass extreme policies that bust unions, hurt women, or attack middle-class families, we will have one word for him: No. We will demand laws that benefit the middle class and start repairing our state.

          PCCC members have stood with us in Wisconsin every step of the way.

          The donations you made to the Wisconsin Democratic Party and Wisconsin Senate Democrats directly helped get out the vote that fueled last night’s Senate win.

          From the bottom of my heart, I want to say thank you. Despite the disappointment in the governor’s race, your efforts helped us achieve victory and restore balance in our state.

          I look forward to working as partners with bold progressive activists in the days, months, and years ahead.

          Solidarity,

          Mark Miller, incoming Wisconsin Senate Majority Leader

    2. Compare the 2010 vote count to last night:

      – Barrett got more votes than Walker did in 2010,

      – Walker lost support in most counties

      How did Wisconsin get 300,000 more people to get out and vote yesterday?   300k sounds like a lot of votes.   A lot more if the college vote turn out was low because of summer break.  

  16. OK, so the number of voters is incorrect, this being the famous headline of The Mirror after GW’s first election.  (First chute into the White House being via the Supreme Court.)

    Yesterday’s election is confirmation that not only can votes be bought indirectly, but that most Americans are now puppets of the ruling class, perfectly willing to vote against their own best interests via lies and ideologies propagated by The Overlords.

    Many times over the years I’ve been on this site, I’ve read Polsters say, “I have faith in the voter. He/she won’t be fooled.”  I always took the more cynical position.

    I think I’m proven right.  

    1. It is shameful and saddening. I heard a pundit last night report that exit polling showed Walker carrying non-union households in a big way. They don’t understand that the success of unions buoys all workers.

      Somehow Walker convinced them that the unions’ gain is their loss.

      26,400 repetitions…ask Alvin.

    2. And not all of them vote.

      Which is why 300,000 + for turnout sounds so…..questionable.

      I will not be surprised when someone finds a precinct or county that turned more votes for Walker than they have registered voters.

      1. Wisconsin has same-day registration, so unless someone really screwed up and didn’t bother with the registration form, the numbers will still add up.

        There were reports throughout the state that registration forms were flying off the shelves; Madison reported more people voting than were registered the day before the election, and many Republican counties reported thick stacks of registration forms being filled out.

        I think state Democrats need to be on the lookout for any oddities, but at this time trusting the clerks’ word, the GOP just managed to find a whole new block of previously uninterested voters.  (What the ideology of those new voters is remains to be seen – could be they were largely against the recall and spending taxpayer dollars on an off-schedule election on principle alone…)

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