Here are the most recent ballot return numbers via the Colorado Secretary of State’s office. A total of 1,686,304 ballots had been returned as of yesterday.
Here’s a bit more context on what these numbers mean. The short version is that Republicans continue to lag behind Unaffiliated and Democratic voters:
Catch-up Update courtesy of @COSecofState
11/8/22 9:42AM | IT’S ELECTION DAY!1,686,304 Ballots have been returned (+16,055)
648,449 Unaffiliated (38.46%)⬇️
534,679 Democrats (31.71%)⬆️
485,084 Republicans (28.77%)⬇️#copolitics #cosen #cogov #coleg— ian “VOTE BY 7PM NOVEMBER 8” silverii (@iansilverii) November 8, 2022
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The 0.16% represents how Neuschwanger is stealing the election from Hiedi, just to clear things up.
Do Unaffiliateds typically split 50/50?
If so, then Dems are ahead 52.4 compared to Republicans at 47.6.
Does anyone have historic comparison of ballots returned to election results that might show how Unaffs split? I’m not sure we get election day results showing Unaffs, but by that point everyone is looking at results, and not wondering such details.
Since these are actually returned ballots we have eliminated the 10% of un-commited.
From 2008, 2012, 2016, 2018, in Colorado as a whole, U’s lean Dem by about 5 points. In red districts like CD4 or CD3, Us lean R by about 20 points, That’s what I recall, but can’t look up the source at the moment.
Vox found U and I voters turning in 80% Dem ballots in the 2018 primary. https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2018/6/29/17509868/how-colorados-unaffiliated-voted
So that would be a huge D advantage if that carries over into a midterm election.
However, more U’s turned red than turned blue in 2022, per Fox. https://kdvr.com/news/like-u-s-colorado-has-gotten-more-republican-in-the-last-year/
2018 election was followed almost immediately by a Magellan Strategies survey of 500 Unaffiliated voters. Unaffiliated split 59-25 in the Governor's race, with the rest split between minor parties and undervotes.
David Flaherty summarized it this way:
In the survey findings,
Replacing the useless pie chart above with a useful chart.
Brought to you by the brilliant insight at Liberal & Loving It
So if someone high up in a campaign sees the the focus/messaging/spend is ineffective, will they speak out? Or will that be a career limiting move?
From talking to a number of people I get the impression that a lot of what is said & done is because that's what has been said & done for the last 20 years.
While business marketing is different from political marketing, I think it does hold in common that whatever worked even 5 years ago is unlikely to presently be the most effective now.