This Is What a "Convention Bounce" Looks Like

9 thoughts on “This Is What a “Convention Bounce” Looks Like”

1. If Romney wants to win for Republicans, he’s going to have to pull out some pretty convincing debate wins or find some bombshell of a political hit to unload on Obama.

   Romney is supposed to be up with $100 million in targeted swing state ads this week, touting a plan-free claim that he’ll create hundreds of thousands of jobs as soon as he’s elected. I’m not sure that will sell with people – we know the economic situation is tough, and we want to see a real plan before we believe politicians’ promises.

   And in the meantime, Romney continues to put his foot in his mouth. I just don’t see Romney recovering from this. In fact, I see Republican hopes of reclaiming the Senate fading rapidly, and dreams of Democrats reclaiming the House starting to blossom from what looked like a desolate landscape only a month ago.

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2. But the debates will be critical to Obama’s  ultimate success with that million or so undecided voter.

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   1. just about right.  Looked at latest polls, including today (Sunday) , on Real Clear and Gallup had him up by 5, Rasmussen 4 but most impressive was his jump in job approval from  a little negative on average to significant positive. Also  better news for Obama than for Mittens in an important swing state or two.

      Media has brought attention again to Mitten’s Russia as #1 geopolitical threat remark forcing Ryan to offer lame defense.  

      Mittens now admitting the most popular parts of Obama’s health care reform are good things by saying he plans to keep them. So he still claims he wants to repeal Obamacare but seems he doesn’t exactly mean it.

      Mittens/Lyin Ryan are being asked but still refuse to answer which tax loopholes they propose closing, something they won’t be able to do in debates without looking  shifty and sneaky.

      Fingers crossed.  

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   2. I remember watching debates & thinking, “wow, that was a big win,” or “wow, that sucked for my guy” — yet not seeing the dial move anywhere near as significantly as in a real convention bounce. But I don’t claim perfect recall here; anyone remember any times there was an identifiable polling bounce after a decisive debate? (Nate Silver, are you here? This would be a great Q to analyze.)

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      1. What is the make up of the 6-8% that are still undecided, but likely to vote?

         Are they disappointed 2008 Obama supporters?

         Are they GOP-leaning (or ex-Republicans) that don’t trust Romney (for oh, a dozen or two likely reasons)?

         If the convention bounce is due to either of the above coming around to Obama (again), I would think they would likely pay attention to the debates as well.  So I believe a lot will ride on them this year — perhaps as much as the Kennedy-Nixon debates.

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      2. http://voices.washingtonpost.c…

         The second Bush-Dukakis also seemed to move the polls quite a lot.

         Since then people have certainly talked about particular moments in debates as being really important, but mostly debates seem to reinforce trends that already have other explanations. I’ve watched many debates and often have a totally different sense of who is winning than the media afterwards (because I care about things like answering the question posed and knowing some shit).  

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3. Romney just pwned all the Republicans who oppose Obamacare!

   He came out in favor of keeping the “good parts” of Obamacare, specifically the prohibition on insurance companies from denying you insurance based on pre-existing conditions. This means that private insurance will continue to exist ONLY if you have mandates, and subsidies for the poor.

   Romney knows this from his Massachusetts experience, so he just threw the tea party, and all the Republican governors under the bus.

   Let’s run up the score!

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   1. now go away.  Classic Mitt Romney behavior. Give him what he wants and once he’s done with you you don’t exist.  On to the next sucker.

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4. Of course, I’m sure the Romneybot ticket sees this as an example of “out of control guvmit spending” since it helps the demographic that “isn’t important.”

   Surprising methods heal wounded troops

   Scientists are growing ears, bone and skin in the lab, and doctors are planning more face transplants and other extreme plastic surgeries. Around the country, the most advanced medical tools that exist are now being deployed to help America’s newest veterans and wounded troops.

   *In Los Angeles, surgeons used part of Michael Mills’ forehead to rebuild his nose after a bomb disfigured him in Iraq.

   *In Pittsburgh, doctors used an experimental therapy from pig tissue to help regrow part of a thigh muscle that Ron Strang lost in a blast in Afghanistan.

   *In Boston, scientists are making plans for the first implants of lab-grown ears for wounded troops after successful experiments in sheep and rats.

   *In San Antonio and other cities, doctors are testing sprayed-on skin cells and lab-made sheets of skin to heal burns and other wounds. The ingenuity is impressive: One product was developed from foreskin left over from circumcisions.

   Much of this comes from taxpayer-funded research. Four years ago, the federal government created AFIRM, the Armed Forces Institute of Regenerative Medicine, a network of top hospitals and universities, and gave $300 million in grants to spur new treatments using cell science and advanced plastic surgery.

   http://www.google.com/hostedne…

   So, tell me Romneybots- why is it better for Millionaires to have a huge tax cut over funding research like this?

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