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October 08, 2012 10:02 PM UTC

Roll Call's Colorado Roundup: Two Tossups and a Costly Dem Hold

  • 9 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Roll Call publishes a roundup of key races in the Rocky Mountain region today, updating three congressional battles in Colorado–CDs 3, 6, and 7. Excerpts show a pretty good handle on the state of these races, little to disagree with:

[W]ith no Senate race, both [Scott Tipton and Sal Pace] will appear directly below the presidential race and will therefore be closely tied to President Barack Obama or Republican nominee Mitt Romney. In a handful of September polls, Obama began to pull out of the margin of error statewide, although some showed that contest tightening. And at least one national Republican strategist predicted that Romney will prevail in the 3rd district.

Internal House polling from both sides gives Tipton a small lead, but as of last week, Pace had yet to go negative in his television advertising. If Pace can get traction, this race will stay Tossup. If not, it is a sign that the district is returning to its Republican roots. In 2008, McCain fell just short here against Obama. But President George W. Bush carried it in 2004 with 55 percent…

Early on, Colorado Democrats privately admitted that while [Mike] Coffman has a conservative record, he was the better candidate. There was also an obvious sense among Democrats that Miklosi lacked charisma. But that all changed in May, when a video surfaced that showed Coffman making a reference to President Barack Obama’s place of birth.

[Ed] Perlmutter will probably return to Congress – but the question will be, at what cost to the national party? Republicans, while hoping for victory, are using this race to bleed Democrats of money that they would prefer to spend elsewhere.

A good summary, worth reading in its entirety. The one thing we would add is that the potentially important impact of the presidential race cited in CD-3 as a factor downticket, especially since these are the next highest races down the ticket in Colorado, is applicable to all three congressional battlegrounds–each, if perhaps for differing reasons and to a variable extent, share a desire if not a need for healthy Barack Obama coattails on Election Day.

We realize how that sounds after the week Obama just had, but it’s no less true now.

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9 thoughts on “Roll Call’s Colorado Roundup: Two Tossups and a Costly Dem Hold”

    1. http://coloradopeakpolitics.co…

      In the November 14, 2011 interview in Grand Junction, which can be found on YouTube, Kelly Sloan asked Tisha Casida if it bothered her that her run would probably draw just enough percentage points off of the Republican candidate to give a victory by the Liberal Democrat. Her response was that it didn’t bother her at all, and that the two parties were the same. She asserted that only an Independent candidate like herself could really solve the current problems in America.

      Tisha Casida appears to be a bright candidate with a reasonably successful business history under her belt. Does she really believe that she could win against an incumbent as a third-party candidate, in a district which has been well represented by said incumbent?  Probably not. One has only to do the math to understand that Tisha Casida’s run in the D3 congressional race means almost certain victory for the Liberal Democrat.  It is worth exploring the relationship between the Bob McConnell and Tisha Casida.  The timing of her candidacy, and her close relationship to Bob McConnell is highly suspect.  Is Tisha Casida a convenient puppet being used by McConnell to derail the incumbent, Scott Tipton?

      1. Does she really believe that she could win against an incumbent as a third-party candidate, in a district which has been well represented by said incumbent?  

  2. Joe and Sal both have a great chance of winning.  Too bad Brandon Shaffer lacks the cash to exploit the latest revelations about Cory Gardner that CBS ran yesterday.  

  3. In 2008, the last time they were down ticket to a presidential election, Ed got 5% more of the vote than Obama in the 7th (63.4% v. 58.7%)and Coffman got 8% more of the vote than McCain in the 6th (60.7% v. 52.5%). Both have been redistricted this year, but it is still hard to imagine that there are many that will split their ballots Obama/Coors or Romney/Miklosi. I would expect both the 6th and 7th to be tight in the Presidential race, and expect both Ed and Coffman to outperform the top of the ticket for the victory.

    In the third and the fourth, with two freshmen republicans, I have no idea. There were certainly a lot of voters that voted for Obama in 08 that went for Tipton and Gardner in 2010. Who are they gonna vote for?

    1. But the 7th is slightly more conservative, but not that much worse on numbers.  

      The major difference is the 6th is a very different district and Obama won the new 6th with 54% of the vote.  

  4. While a search is going on for a poor missing girl to run this ad is insensitvve and despicable.  It should and will blow up in Coffman’s face.

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