October 11, 2012 09:41 PM UTC

Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT in Colorado: Romney 48%, Obama 47%

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• by: Colorado Pols

Another poll from immediately after last week’s debate, this one from Quinnipiac University, CBS News, and the New York Times shows…wait a minute, not as much of a swing in Colorado as one might expect? CBS 4 Denver reports today:

In Colorado, the two remain locked in a dead heat, with Romney leading Mr. Obama 48 percent to 47 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Last month, also within that margin, Mr. Obama had the one-point edge, with 48 percent to Romney’s 47 percent…

By about four to one, voters in all three of these battleground states say Romney won last week’s presidential debate, and sizable numbers say the debate made them think better of him. But majorities say the debate did not affect their vote. [Pols emphasis]

In Colorado, only 16 percent of likely voters said Mr. Obama won the debate, while 72 percent chose Romney. In Virginia, the breakdown was similar, with 70 percent choosing Romney and 17 percent selecting the president. In Wisconsin, 65 percent said Romney won and 17 percent said Mr. Obama did.

Although it reflects one of the smallest moves we’ve seen in post-debate polling, this survey helps dispel one of several misconceptions circulating in the aftermath of last week’s debate. The overwhelming consensus is, of course, that Mitt Romney won against Barack Obama. But within that consensus, there are a great many voters who concede Romney “won,” even though he shouldn’t have. Voters who recognize Romney’s rhetorical command of the debate, but who either didn’t agree with his (latest) message, or simply knew he was lying. Voters who came away frustrated that they could have done better than Obama against Romney.

For many, the debate was like watching Tonya Harding beat Nancy Kerrigan at ice-skating, or watching Johnnie Cochran get O.J. Simpson acquitted. Of course that’s not great for Obama, but the 4-to-1 margin that believes Romney won are not all going to vote for Romney. So many voters have already made up their minds, and with Obama having more chances to get it right, there is a limit to how much benefit Romney can hope for from one good debate.

Also worth remembering: every poll we’ve seen since the debate so far was taken immediately afterward, during the period where Romney’s victory was most resonant and least second-guessed. As polls continue to be taken past what you’d call the “Peak Romney” period right after the debate, we’re going to see whether Romney’s post-debate bounce is something more.

A two percent net swing won’t get it done.