July 20, 2023 10:33 AM UTC

Boebert's Quantifiable Weakness: CD-3 Downgraded To "Toss Up"

• 4 Comments
• by: Colorado Pols

Colorado’s most controversial Republican, by a long mile, Rep. Lauren Boebert unexpectedly came within a mere 546 votes of losing her seat in Congress in 2022 to upstart conservative Democratic candidate Adam Frisch. After spending her first two years in office mired in bookkeeping scandals and voting against funding she later took credit for, the results of the 2022 elections should have been a wake-up call to Boebert to cut out the antics and become more like her backbencher predecessor–who did not put an R+9 seat at perennial risk of a Democratic upset.

But as NBC News reported this week, telling the story our readers already know well, that didn’t happen:

“A lot of Republicans have been bewildered by her,” said Dick Wadhams, the former chairman of the Colorado Republican Party from 2007 to 2011. “She has not changed her operating style, either substantively or just generally.”

One House GOP lawmaker, who knows Boebert well, offered this advice: “Her ass needs to get home to go campaign. Cut ribbons, go to bar mitzvahs and take credit for stuff she had absolutely nothing to do with.”

In a part of Colorado that leans conservative but is accustomed to electing pragmatic Republicans and Democrats who tend to focus on local issues like water, natural resources and agriculture, Boebert stands out in the wrong ways to a segment of voters, Wadhams said…

This morning, Cook Political Report put the official stamp on the Boebert is floundering narrative by downgrading this Republican-leaning district to a “toss-up.” In 2022, like most national observers, Cook never considered this race competitive–and that presumption is all over:

According to the analysis, the move seems to be for 2 reasons: 1) Boebert hasn’t moderated her image since her close call in ’22 and 2) Frisch outraised Boebert $2.6M to $818k due to “an avalanche of small-dollar donations.”

— Caitlyn Kim (@caitlynkim) July 20, 2023

Again, it’s one thing for those of us closely following this race to be aware that Boebert is in serious trouble. All that’s happening now is that consensus view among close observers broadening into general conventional wisdom. As we’ve noted before, Boebert has continued down her rogue path within the Republican caucus even as her arch-rival Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene gainfully allied herself with Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The irony in this is that MTG’s lopsidedly Republican safe seat would be far more tolerant of Boebert’s unrepentant troublemaking than the district Boebert represents, and it’s Boebert who should be falling in line behind Republican leadership.

But that’s not how it’s playing out. Instead, Boebert is marching herself straight into the jaws of defeat.