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November 01, 2023 01:55 PM UTC

It's About to Get Bananas In Here!

  • 22 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols
This guy won’t be running in 2024.

Congressman Ken Buck (R-Greeley) announced today that he would not seek a sixth term in 2024, which is something that we predicted both on Colorado Pols and the Get More Smarter Podcast in early August. 

Buck had apparently grown weary of complaining about things, taking multiple positions on every issue, and then contributing absolutely nothing to solve the problem…or at least doing all of this on the public dime. Buck’s new plan is to complain about things, take multiple positions, and then contribute nothing to a solution as a full-time talking head on cable television.

We started talking about a potential Republican Primary in CO-04 back in September. Since then, we’ve seen potential candidates such as Heidi Ganahl and Pat Neville signaling their newfound interest in Buck. 

 

District Outlook

According to data from Colorado’s Independent Congressional Redistricting Committee, CO-04 is the most Republican-ie congressional district in Colorado.

Colorado’s fourth congressional district is one of the few remaining safe seats for Republicans. In fact, the 2021 redistricting process made CO-04 the most heavily-Republican congressional district in the state.  

With one, brief exception (Democrat Betsy Markey in 2008-10), CO-04 has been solid Republican territory for decades. Since Buck was first elected in 2014, no Democrat has come within 20 points of defeating him on Election Day. 

In the 2020 Presidential race, Donald Trump carried CO-04 by 30 points – easily the largest GOP margin in Colorado. In 2022, Buck defeated Democrat Ike McCorkle by 24 points, a larger margin of victory than Rep. Doug Lamborn’s 16-point win over Democrat David Torres in CO-05.

In other words, the next Congressional Representative from CO-04 will be a Republican. Whichever candidate wins the June 25, 2024 Primary Election will walk into the seat in November. 

As we wrote in September, the CO-04 Republican Primary will likely have a lot of similarities with the 2006 GOP Primary in CO-05. Six Republicans ended up on the Primary ballot that year in hopes of succeeding 20-year incumbent Rep. Joel Hefley. Doug Lamborn outlasted the other five hopefuls and essentially earned a lifetime seat in Congress thanks to just 15,126 voters.

Now, let’s get to the potential field of candidates…

 

Who’s Out?

The list of potential Republican candidates is so long that it is easier to start with the people who have already publicly announced that they are not going to run in 2024.

♦ Steve Reams
The Weld County Sheriff was an obvious potential candidate, but he told Marshall Zelinger of 9News that a campaign was not in his family’s best interest. 

♦ Greg Brophy
The Watermelon Hunter seemed like an obvious choice – he was Buck’s first Chief of Staff, after all – but looks like he’s out.

♦ Barbara Kirkmeyer
The State Senator lost narrowly to Democrat Yadira Caraveo in CO-08 but says she isn’t interested in another congressional run in 2024. 

 

Who’s In?

Trent Leisy’s hat for 2024!

Two Republicans had already filed paperwork to run in 2024: Justin Schreiber and Trent Leisy. The only thing we know about either of these candidates is that Leisy wears a ridiculous “MAGA KING” hat along with his suit and tie. Both Schreiber and Leisy are relatively-unknown candidates with no obvious built-in base of support; it’s unlikely that the eventual Republican nominee will be one of these two people.

On the Democratic side, there are two candidates: John Padora and Ike McCorkle, the latter of whom is running in CO-04 for the third consecutive cycle. 

♦ Deborah Flora made it official on Thursday, Nov. 2.

 

Who’s Next?

Obviously not all of the people on this list will end up running in 2024, though most of them will at least poke around a bit first. We took a brief run through this potential list back in September, but we need a more expansive look now. Take a deep breath…

As we noted six weeks ago, we are aware of at least four people who have already had preliminary discussions with the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC): Heidi Ganahl, Deborah Flora, Lora Thomas, and George Brauchler.

Did somebody say “bananas”?

♦ Heidi Ganahl
Ganahl was the 2022 Republican nominee for Governor, losing to incumbent Democratic Gov. Jared Polis by 20 points and earning the title of “Worst Candidate/Campaign in Modern Colorado History.“ As crazy as Ganahl sounded by the end of the 2022 campaign, her many (many) public comments since indicate that she was actually holding back quite a bit. Ganahl could likely self-fund a Primary campaign and may be sufficiently ridiculous enough for the MAGA base.

♦ Deborah Flora
Flora is a right-wing radio host who ran for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in 2022 but was so incompetent that she couldn’t even get her name on the June Primary ballot. But like Ganahl, Flora is nutty enough to be interesting to the Primary electorate. Flora is doing the old “lots of people are encouraging me” routine, which means she’s probably going to run. [SEE ABOVE: She’s in]

♦ Lora Thomas
A longtime fixture in Douglas County GOP circles, Thomas is finishing her final term as a DougCo Commissioner. She regularly draws the ire of anyone unlucky enough to talk with her, but she might have enough of a base to be successful depending on the total number of candidates. Thomas all but acknowledged to Zelinger that she would run in 2024.

♦ George Brauchler
The right-wing radio host pretended to be surprised by all of this in a conversation with Zelinger, but he badly wants to be elected to something. A former district attorney, Brauchler tried to move up the political totem pole in 2018 before being driven away to the bowels of right-wing talk radio. Brauchler first tried to gain traction as a Republican candidate for Governor in 2017 but quickly found that nobody else was interested in the idea. He then switched to the race for Attorney General, where he lost to Democrat Phil Weiser by six points. Brauchler wouldn’t have to worry about a Democrat in 2024, but his waffling about supporting Donald Trump will make him less appetizing for a Primary electorate.

♦ Richard Holtorf
The State Representative from Akron has been talking openly about his “exploratory committee” in CO-04, which is not a real thing but which he nevertheless insists to be formal. He’s running.

Jerry Sonnenberg will probably want a different slogan.

♦ Jerry Sonnenberg
As we wrote in September, the former State Senator is believed to be a favorite of the NRCC. Sonneberg told Zelinger that he is considering a run, and we’d bet that he makes it official soon.

♦ Kristi Burton Brown
Brown was the Chair of the Colorado Republican Party in 2022 when the GOP suffered perhaps its worst election cycle in generations, so OBVIOUSLY she would be a good candidate. Her name has been floated by current GOP Chair Dave Williams, and she has been publicly coy about a potential campaign. 

♦ Abe Laydon
Douglas County Commissioner is also playing the “aw, shucks, I’m glad so many people want me to run” routine, but the sad truth is that CO-04 Primary voters aren’t going to elect a non-straight man in 2024.  

♦ Pat Neville
The former State House Minority Leader has been signaling lately about his interest in CO-04 by attacking Buck via social media. His brother, Joe Neville, could take a shot instead.

♦ Gino Campana
Another failed 2022 Republican Senate candidate is considering a run, according to Ernest Luning.

 

We’ll keep updating this list as we learn more.

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22 thoughts on “It’s About to Get Bananas In Here!”

  1. I read somewhere that KBB is more interested in State Board of Education for the 4th District. Heaven help our kids if she wins and Dems don't keep a majority there.

    1. I know we should always be open to all possibilities when it comes to politics, but I really really doubt Republicans will gain a majority in the State Board of Education. Democrats hold a 6-3 advantage. Only one district can realistically flip in 2024 but that’ll still leave us at 5-4 advantage, including retaining the at-large position.When it came to the at-large election, Kathy Plomer won by a very healthy 10% plus margin back in 2022. The other Democratic members seem to have won by comfortable margins for the most part.

      We have so much more things to worry about in 2024 but at least the Board of Education races aren’t one of them. Even if it did happen, hell will be unleashed on them if they really want to advance far-right BS in a state like Colorado. Colorado voters have shown me that they are not the bunch to let such things slide.

      1. Thanks Slash, I believe you're right we won't have to worry about Board of Ed in 2024, and whether KBB wins or not we'll probably get a Republican in CD4 anyway. But to me, Board of Ed is typically a low-profile race, and I just hope people will be vigilant in 2026 and beyond.

  3. Kirkmeyer ran in CD-8 last year but she ran in CD-4 in 2014 when she lost the nomination to Buck. She would probably be way too liberal to win CD-4.

      1. Didn't Ayatollah Williams already issue a Fatwa against her for not practicing the true MAGA faith with sufficient fanaticism? 

    2. By comparison, Kirkmeyer seems like a moderate even she's not that at all. She perfectly encapsulates what the Colorado GOP has devolved into: you are either far-right or borderline far-right. Most Republicans in the state are the latter, a large minority are the former. There are no moderates. Kevin Priola was the last true moderate Republican and I still see him as the most moderate conservative in the legislature despite being a Democrat (btw, Bob Marshall is probably the second most moderate conservative, also a Democrat ironically). 

  5. Sonnenberg is a known quantity in CD4. He votes No on anything most readers of this blog would care about, with the possible exception of the occasional Yes to education funding vote.

    He's a proud sexist, anti-immigrant, gunhead , but not ferociously MAGA as far as I can tell, though he supported Trump in 2016. He crusaded against rain barrels, of all things….but is OK on the cannabis industry.  He voted for funding rural hospitals ( barely) but was a COVID denier.

    So yeah, he's probably electable in the 4th. Unfortunately.

     

  7. Pop some more corn Penelope. It could be fun watching this red on red food fight and how it plays out in a purple/blue state. They are going to highlight and claim credit for positions that the majority in the state detest.

    1. Yeah, this isn’t going to be great publicity at all for state Republicans. It’ll repulse moderates and independent voters, it’ll reinforce Democratic voters to dislike them, and it might turn-off some Republican voters. Also, I’m not convinced that Colorado is anything less than a blue state by now. Maybe blueish-purple after 2018 but the 2020-2022 elections in my mind ended that speculation.

  8. Here's an idea…..

    If it looks like ten or so of these nut jobs will make the primary ballot thanks to the petition process, why don't we recruit Michael Bowman to return to his former political party and run as a stealth candidate in the primary, hope that the crazies evenly split the field, and allows our stealth sanity candidate to win the nomination.

    I'm guessing if anything like that happened, then the MAGA Powers That Be would then need to pivot to the American Constitution Party candidate to prevent the sane Republicans and indies from stealing this seat.

    2. blush It’s going to be interesting!  
       

      Trent is a nephew (thru my kid’s mom).  While our politics couldn't be farther apart on most issues he’s a good kid. Great parents. If your choice for candidate is an “America First” archetype, Trent’s your guy. 
       

      I’d guess that if Jerry jumps in he’ll sweep the board. Even though we’ve persisted in bringimg a lot of resources and development to eastern Colorado in spite of Jerry’s votingng record, he’s well-known acrosd the prairie and has that great “Dubya” charm that makes you want to have a beer with the guy. 

  9. Somehow, I would expect nearly all those in CO-4 who currently serve as a member of the Colorado House and Senate perpetual minorities would consider running. 

    Prospects for being part of a majority in DC have got to be better than the odds in Denver.

    1. True. Why aren’t state legislators lining up for this? They are doomed to be a minority in Denver that are only there to give us a chuckle or migraine and remind voters why they didn’t vote for them.

  10. Back in 2008, CD-4 included all of Larimer County. That's how Betsy Markey was able to unseat the longstanding Marilyn Musgrave (remember her?).

    2010 redistricting moved a big chunk of Larimer into CD-2, making CD-2 into an unnecessarily superstrong Democratic bastion, and giving up CD-4 entirely to the sea of lowly-populated but vast red east of I-25.

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