November 03, 2023 12:29 PM UTC

The "Boebert is in Trouble" Narrative is Sticking

• 8 Comments
• by: Colorado Pols

Predicting political outcomes is a tough task, in large part because there are so many variables that can change in a relatively-quick period of time that completely upend the conventional wisdom. A few key events can take something that might seem like an otherwise ridiculous premise (like, say, Donald Trump becoming President of the United States) and turn them into a new reality.

But there are also well-worn patterns that emerge in politics that tend to precede significant changes more often than not. Congressperson Lauren Boebert (R-ifle) is currently in the throes of such a pattern. As we’ve been documenting in this space, Boebert’s re-election campaign is flailing after a brutal couple of months of terrible press centered around the now-familiar #Beetlebert scandal.

Her campaign has now reached a troubling milestone: The “Boebert is in Trouble” narrative is sticking.

We saw it earlier this week with stories from Westword and The Associated Press, the latter of which has been picked up outside of Colorado by the likes of The Hill newspaper. The drumbeat continued today with a detailed story from Tom Hesse and Caitlyn Kim at Colorado Public Radio:

Worried about the surprisingly close 2022 election and disturbed by another national news cycle focused on her public behavior, some Republican leaders in Western Colorado are taking the unusual step of lining up behind an alternative to Congresswoman Lauren Boebert.

County commissioners, donors and the state’s last Republican governor have come out to support attorney Jeff Hurd of Grand Junction in his primary challenge to represent Colorado’s 3rd district…

…“Look at what happened in the last general election. The Republican voters, they decided they weren’t going to vote for personalities, and the Democrats decided they were going to vote against personalities,” Delta County Commissioner Don Suppes said. “I think we reached the point that we need a statesman to run for this seat and we need somebody that’s not going to have any external baggage.”

[mantra-pullquote align=”right” textalign=”left” width=”40%”]“I’m not very pleased with Lauren [Boebert]”

— Rio Blanco County Commissioner Ty Gates[/mantra-pullquote]

The latest Republican county commissioner to publicly back Republican Jeff Hurd over Boebert is Rio Blanco County’s Ty Gates. As Ernest Luning reports for the publication formerly known as the Colorado Statesman:

Gates told Colorado Politics he believes Hurd can do a better job representing the rural county’s residents than the incumbent has…

…”I’m not very pleased with Lauren,” Gates said. “I don’t think, for our rural community — the only time we see her is when there’s a campaign or something like that. Honestly, I don’t feel like we’re getting the support and our voices are being heard, and I think Jeff can do a better job at that.” [Pols emphasis]

Gates’s comments are similar to those we’ve seen from other Republicans lately, including Bill Owens, the last Republican to serve as Governor in Colorado.

Boebert’s Republican opponents have grown tired of her style of performative obstruction that values media clicks over getting work done for people in the third congressional district. They worry that Boebert is too toxic to again defeat Democrat Adam Frisch, the fundraising goliath whom Boebert only beat by 546 votes in 2022. And they all cite their disgust over by Boebert’s public vaping and groping at a Beetlejuice musical performance in Denver in September.

As Luning continues:

Gates is the fourth Republican county commissioner to endorse Hurd in recent weeks.

He joins Mesa County commissioners Cody Davis and Bobbi Daniel and Delta County Commissioner Don Suppes, who each cited Boebert’s ejection in September from a Denver performance of “Beetlejuice: The Musical” as a reason for backing her primary opponent. [Pols emphasis]

Colorado Public Radio picks up the same thread:

For many of them, the final straw was what’s become known as “the Beetlejuice incident,” when the second-term congresswoman was recorded carrying on at a showing of the musical at Denver’s Buell Theater. [Pols emphasis]

“Over the last two-and-a-half years, I’ve done my best to defend the record of Congresswoman Boebert,” said Mesa County commissioner Cody Davis. “Haven’t always been a fan of her style by any means. But what she did at Beetlejuice… it wasn’t a simple mistake. I’ve had a lot of supporters of Lauren reach out to me: ‘Well, she made this mistake, worship forgiveness,’ all of this. But, to be honest, this wasn’t just a simple mistake. This was kind of a violent departure from normal, from statesmanship, from character… you name it.”

Boebert still has plenty of supporters, as Colorado Public Radio notes, but they are having to really stretch themselves in order to justify sticking by her side:

Tom Keenan is a regular at their Monday meetings at Grand Junction’s Appleton Christian Church. He said Republicans switching to Hurd don’t represent voter sentiment…

…Keenan and others at the meeting speculated that the incident was somehow a set-up meant to entrap her. [Pols emphasis]

[mantra-pullquote align=”right” textalign=”left” width=”50%”]“The congresswoman barely won her race last year and I don’t see those voters coming back after the issue at the theater.”

— Delta County Commissioner Don Suppes, who has endorsed Jeff Hurd in CO-03.[/mantra-pullquote]

Ah yes, the central tenet of the MAGA church of true believers: When logic and reality fail to assist your argument, you can always turn to ridiculous conspiracy theories. But candidates can only go so far by relying on the support of people who need fairytales to justify their opinions.

That’s why Boebert’s campaign has been trying desperately to smash the “reset” button in order to seed a different narrative. Alas, facts won’t help her here, either. Boebert ‘s campaign manager, Drew Sexton, tells CPR that “We want to talk about the Congresswoman’s track record and what she’s accomplished.”

This would be a great idea…if only there were actual accomplishments that Sexton could discuss. In an interview with TIME magazine on Oct. 26, Sexton was really struggling at the spin game; he boasted in an unintentionally-hilarious fashion that Boebert had managed to get seven bills “passed through at least a House committee.”

Neat!

The full story, as CPR points out, is much less impressive:

Although some of Boebert’s amendments have passed the House, none of her bills have gotten all the way through Congress. She’s also claimed credit for getting measures included in appropriations bills that became law, although she voted against them…[Pols emphasis]

It’s going to be awfully hard for Boebert to get a “competence” narrative to take hold now that she has become the butt of jokes on late night television (she was even mocked in a recent cold open on “Saturday Night Live”). Even if Boebert can get voters to forget about #Beetlebert, she’s constantly on the precipice of a new set of problems after aggressively embracing new House Speaker Mike Johnson and his litany of unpopular policy ideas.

Lauren Boebert is in deep trouble entering 2024. That’s the story, and it’s sticking to her.