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December 27, 2023 07:35 PM UTC

SURPRISE! Boebert Panics and Switches Districts to CO-04

  • 30 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Republican Congressperson Lauren Boebert has been on a downward trajectory ever since she barely won re-election in 2022 by a razor-thin 546 votes in CO-03. Her odds of winning a third term in 2024 began plummeting after her infamous Beetlebert scandal and the subsequent campaign of Republican Jeff Hurd, whom establishment Republicans have been rushing to support as they worried about Boebert’s ability to hold the seat against Democratic challenger Adam Frisch. Boebert’s embarrassing antics have hurt her with mainstream Republicans and led to a narrative that she was in serious trouble in 2024.

Instead of making the changes that she actually needed to make in order to remain in Congress — like NOT showing up in the tabloids every week — Boebert bailed out of the Hindenburg and parachuted onto the Titanic.

As The Colorado Sun reports:

Lauren Boebert announced Wednesday night that she is ditching her reelection bid next year in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District to run instead in the state’s 4th Congressional District, which is on the other side of the state and is far more favorable to Republicans. [Pols emphasis]

Boebert won by just 546 votes last year in the 3rd District, which spans Colorado’s Western Slope into Pueblo and southeastern Colorado. The 4th District is anchored in Douglas County and includes Loveland and the state’s rural Eastern Plains.

The 3rd District leans 9 percentage points in Republicans’ favor while the 4th District leans 27 points toward the GOP, according to a nonpartisan analysis of election results from 2016 to 2020 by staffers for the Colorado legislature. Boebert doesn’t have to live in the 4th District to represent it.

“I did not arrive at this decision easily,” Boebert said in a Facebook video announcing the move. “A lot of prayer, a lot of tough conversations and a lot of perspective convinced me that this is the best way I can continue to fight for Colorado, for the conservative movement and for my children’s future.”

Let’s call this what it is: A desperate move to keep a job — ANY JOB — in Congress in 2025. All of Boebert’s talk about how hard she was working for her constituents in the third congressional district was never believable, but there is absolutely no good faith discussion to be had anymore. Changing districts in the middle of her term — Boebert says she will literally move her home to CO-04, which is on the other side of the state — is just plain insulting to Republican voters. Does she think Republican voters in CO-04 will EVER believe anything she says after what she just did to her current constituents? Will she spend the next year in Congress working on legislation in order to gain the support of voters she doesn’t currently represent?

With this one decision, Boebert proved once and for all that she is interested in remaining in Congress for one reason, and one reason only: Just to remain in Congress. This has nothing to do with representing people from the district in which she has lived most of her life. This has ALWAYS been about Lauren Boebert — and only about Lauren Boebert.

Before posting her Facebook video announcement today, Boebert apparently spent some time calling the many current and soon-to-be Republicans in CO-04, including House Minority Leader Mike Lynch (who is still mulling a bid for Congress but hasn’t yet announced). From what we hear, Boebert was telling these folks that Donald Trump “told me to do it” (switch districts in 2024). Not all of the advice she received was in agreement, however; Republican State Party Chairman Dave Williams told Boebert NOT to make the switch.

 

This is a Terrible Idea for Boebert

This is what “panic” looks like.

Boebert was facing an increasingly-difficult Republican Primary Election in June against Jeff “Bread Sandwich” Hurd, who has been picking up endorsements from all across the state simply by virtue of NOT being Lauren Boebert. She would have been favored to beat Hurd in the GOP Primary, though doing so likely would have forced her to expend a significant amount of resources heading into a General Election battle with the well-funded Frisch.

But despite the many obstacles facing her re-election bid, Boebert still had the advantage of overwhelming name ID throughout her sprawling home district. If she could have beaten Hurd, she had a chance to gain Republican financial support in the General Election for the simple fact that the GOP needs to keep CO-03 in the red column to have any hope of maintaining its slim majority in the House of Representatives.

Boebert is now running in a district that is a virtual lock to remain in Republican hands in 2024. WHOEVER wins the June Primary to succeed retiring Rep. Ken Buck is all but guaranteed to win the General Election in November. In other words, Republicans don’t need Boebert in 2024. There’s no incentive for GOP voters to hold their nose and vote for Boebert in CO-04, where a ClusterBuck of Republican candidates already offers a little something for every right-wing voter.

And if Boebert thought other Republican candidates in CO-04 would just roll over for her…she thought wrong.

As we’ve discussed in this space, there will likely be so many candidates on the June Primary ballot that the eventual winner will gain a new office in Washington D.C. with only a fraction of the total Republican voting population in CO-04. The GOP Primary will be a knife fight in a phone booth, which negates Boebert’s two biggest advantages: Name ID and fundraising. When you get more than six candidates on the ballot, winning the Primary Election is about making sure that your supporters turn out to vote. And since Boebert has no natural connection to residents of CO-04, she doesn’t have the kind of built-in base of support that someone like former State Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg has cultivated for more than a decade.

Boebert didn’t fix her 2024 problems by moving to a new district. She’s still a pure political performance artist who is mainly interested in the F-level celebrity status that comes with being a MAGA Member of Congress, and Republican Primary voters aren’t likely to find this any more endearing on the Eastern Plains than they did along the Western Slope of Colorado. Boebert’s decision to switched districts is the equivalent of the Denver Broncos expecting to suddenly become a better team merely because they changed uniforms.

 

Everybody in the Pool in CO-03!

Jeff Hurd, hand-shaking man.

Boebert didn’t bail on CO-03 because she was terrified of the almost comically-boring Jeff Hurd. Boebert likely saw the difficult task of spending time and money beating Hurd only to run head-on into the fundraising behemoth that is Adam Frisch. It was that combination — along with bad polling numbers — that convinced Boebert that she couldn’t keep her job in Congress if she stayed where she was.

Now that Boebert is moving across the state, we’d expect a slew of better-known and more interesting Republicans to jump into the race in CO-03 in the coming weeks. Remember: The third congressional district is a Republican-leaning district that would not have been a concern for the GOP if not for Boebert’s embarrassing antics. A decent Republican candidate probably should be able to beat Frisch in November 2024. This could make Boebert’s decision a big win for Republicans counting seats for a House majority in 2025.

We’ll have plenty more to discuss regarding Boebert’s boneheaded decision to save her dying political career and the fallout in two separate Congressional districts. At the very least, the 2024 election cycle in Colorado got a lot more interesting.

 

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30 thoughts on “SURPRISE! Boebert Panics and Switches Districts to CO-04”

  1. Good golly! I had to check the calendar to make sure it wasn't April Fool's Day. Or 1941, when H*tler invaded the Soviet Union. I think the Nazi invasion might have been more strategically sensible.

  3. I'm surprised in some ways.  Boebert demonstrated an ability to take out a bland, unengaged incumbent Republican in 2020.  If she was jumping, wouldn't it make more sense to go after another one like that, namely Rep. Lamborn?

      1. Normally we’d assume tRump would eschew those who got captured.  Losers. Like the late Sen McCain.  Like BoBo who got captured by the clutches of a formidable Dem opponent and a plausible primary opponent.  But we live in an upside-down world and here we are. 

        1. Michael, you're still not willing to run in the GOP CD 4 primary as the only non-MAGA candidate?

          Even if it's a lost cause and you simply show up at free media events, it would be a hoot debating with folks like Jerry Sonnenberg (who is probably what passes as a moderate), Richard Holthorf, Trent Leisy, Lauren Bobert, and whatever crackpot Douglas County fields (probably Ted Harvey). 

          And who knows, maybe they'll evenly split the 75% of the district that is MAGA, and you eek out a win with 25%.

          1. A tantalizing thought but I think one family member is enough for this cycle! I'm old enough to remember Betsy Markey's tenure. She was the hardest working Rep CD-4 ever had, and yet….  The MAGA virus is so steeped into the eastern plains psyche that I'm not sure I'll live long enough to see the symptoms subside.  

  5. The fundraising juggernaut that is Adam Frisch will stop being Adam Frisch and now be whoever should have the good fortune to run against Bobo, should she win the primary.

    If Trump really told her to do this, it’s the smartest thing either of them has ever done politically since it probably keeps two seats red instead of at least one flipping.

    1. Her decision was made after a long time on her knees. Didn’t the omnipotent White Prosperity Jesus force her hand? 

      The odds are getting better and better for Jerry.

  6. Ike McCorkle for CD4! You know what to do. Donate here. 

    ike’s website is much better, and his focus on rural issues is much clearer. He needs a good staff and I hope Colorado Dems will help him out instead of opting to hand it to whichever candidate survives the ClusterBuck. Dare we hope CODems have learned their lesson from CD3?
    Ike is a decorated veteran, practical progressive,  single father, and a very decent guy. 
     

        1. Given that it is +7 R orientation, all things being equal, that's true – Dems aren't electable in CD 3. What made Frisch's exciting close finish possible was the horrible quality of the GOP nominee. 

          Given the much higher partisan tilt of CD 4, she has a bigger cushion to absorb her fuckups committed since 2022 along with a few yet-to-be made indiscretions.

           

  7. Well this is bad news. CD-4 is Republican no matter who runs. But now CD-3 will also almost certainly be Republican too. Fuck!

    And Boebert is smart to do this. With everybody and their brother running in the CD-4 primary, all she needs is a good chunk of the MAGA crazies and she pulls a Lamborn.

    1. You're right about her pulling a Lamborn.

      Question:  Does anyone thing that there might be some attempt to get all the wannabes in Republican field to coalesce around one candidate who actually has ties to the community, and try to stop her?

      I'm guessing that the answer is "No," and that she will skate to the nomination with 20-25% of the primary vote.

      The other question:  Does Jeff Hurd get a coronation, or will others now jump into the CD 3 primary race? Worst case scenario: Bimbobert wins in CD 4, a stealth crackpot edges out Hurd in CD 3 and then wins the general election, and Doug Lamborn becomes the wise, respectable elder statesman of the CO GOP House delegation.

      Mike Johnson's current job just got a little more secure. We better hope that the NY legislature does some really creative map drawing with their new congressional districts.

      1. What’s the over/under on whether Ken wades into the fray with an endorsement of one of the others?  Will it even matter if FDFQ is all-in with BoBo?   

    2. You're not wrong for the most part.  The only thing I take issue with is giving Boebert credit for being smart here.  She didn't do this because she thought it was a strategically good decision.  This was sheer cowardice.  

       

      If she was really smart, she would have actually acted like she gave a damn about her current constituents, thus not helping perpetuate the circumstances that led to her doing this.

  8. People seem too willing to give Boebert credit here when, in fact, it smells like a classic game of "pass the trash." It's going to take a very strong Trump endorsement to clear the field for her in CD4, and even then I think she's a long shot to win the primary. Politics is local, and Boebert has no roots in CD4. In truth, her announcement is likely the end of her political career. The ironic outcome may be that she beats out Buck for the talking head spot on some news channel. 

    1. Doesn’t she trace her government cheese roots to the Aurora area?  The irony is she’s returning to her cheese roots in an attempt to stay on the government cheese. Isn’t she eligible for health and pension if she serves three terms? 

      1. Yes, I think she has to serve at least five years. So, if she is elected, she can serve that year and day of her third term then, in the fine tradition of her mentor, Sarah Palin, announce she is quitting.

      2. Congressional retirement isn't what it once was.  The Congressional Research Service clarifies:that now, it is fundamentally the same as other federal employment pensions. 

        With 4 years of federal service, Lauren "Bim" Boebert wouldn’t be eligible for anything beyond her contributions and the payroll match from Congress. With 6, she would be.

        • “Members of Congress are eligible for a pension at the age of 62 if they have completed at least 5 years of service.
        • High-3 Salary x Years of Service x .025 = CSRS Pension.  For Boebert, should she be elected to & serve another term, that would be something like $174,000 x 6 x .025 = $26,100.

        Of course, there will be cost of living adjustments between now and when she would be eligible (she just turned 37, so "only" 25 years to go). And she has mandatory deductions from her salary to participate, too.

        Health benefits — Congress passed legislation making all members reliant on the Washington DC health exchange of the ACA.  There is an "onsite" doctor for active members and staff — but that is mainly for urgent care, not routine physicals.  And I think both active AND past members can go to Walter Reed — but their insurance gets billed for treatments there.

    1. Unlikely.  We're talking about the gang that thought a cement contractor with no electoral experience could knock off Michael Bennet, and that a candidate who believes public schools are turning students into furries was a match for Jared Polis.  Frisch has his work cut out for him, but Dave Williams and co. are probably going to run some deranged bottom feeder who will only underline that he's the stable choice.

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