January 25, 2024 01:19 PM UTC

Let's Get Ready to Bumble: Previewing Tonight's Big CO-04 Debate

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• by: Colorado Pols

Tonight at 6:00 pm, the “Republican Women of Weld” (WOW) and The Lincoln Club of Colorado will host the most consequential political debate Colorado has seen in years: The first big verbal showdown between the gazillion candidates running for the congressional seat in CO-04 being vacated by the retirement of Rep. Ken Buck. 

[*Note: WOW is also hosting a debate among Republicans running in CO-08, but the fireworks will be in CO-04]

Because CO-04 is an open seat in the most heavily-Republican district in the state, the winner of the GOP Primary is all but assured to be the district’s next Member of Congress. As such, there is no incentive for any of the Republican candidates to be concerned at all with saying something that could come back to bite them in a General Election. Tonight’s debate will be 100% red meat for members of the red team.   

It’s been awhile since we’ve seen a political debate in Colorado that was both this potentially-entertaining and relevant. Neither of the big races in 2022 – U.S. Senate and Governor – were very memorable given that Republican candidates Joe O’Dea and Heidi Ganahl, respectively, were already hopelessly trailing the Democratic incumbents by the time the General Election debates began. 

We’ve been covering political debates in Colorado for two decades, often with detailed descriptions via our popular “Debate Diary” series. There have been some doozies over the years, including:

• Democrat Phil Weiser’s pummeling of Republican George Brauchler at the 2018 Club 20 forum in the race for Attorney General;
• The third U.S. Senate debate in 2020, when Republican Cory Gardner downed 47 cups of coffee before facing off against Democrat John Hickenlooper;
• The amazeballs first Republican Senate debate in 2016 at the University of Denver, with a field of candidates that included some of the worst GOP statewide candidates in recent memory (Tim Neville, Jon Keyser, Peggy Littleton, Darryl Glenn, Ryan Frazier, and Robert Blaha);
• The last stand for Republican Rep. Mike Coffman in 2018 before he was hammered at the polls by Democrat Jason Crow;

Honorable mention goes to some guy named Daniel Hendricks from the 2022 Republican Senate debate in Weld County. Hendricks wasn’t even an official candidate at the time, and he might have been drunk, yet for some reason he was allowed on stage to say things like this:

“It’s just like when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. I love Animal House.” Then, after a pause, “I win.”

Good stuff. 

We’ll do another “Debate Diary” following tonight’s CO-04 debate that will be published tomorrow. But the first battle for this open seat is so intoxicating (pun intended, Mike Lynch) – and the field of candidates so comically flawed – that it deserves a preview. Let’s get to it by answering our own questions…

Who is Debating?

According to an event invitation, the following Republicans are confirmed to participate tonight:

• Mariel Bailey
  Former congressional staffer whose only advantage is that her last name comes first in an alphabetical listing of candidates.
• Lauren Boebert
  Boebert currently represents CO-03 but is trying to take her, um, talents from the Western Slope to the Eastern Plains.
• Deborah Flora
  Former talk-radio host ran a pitiful campaign for the GOP U.S. Senate nomination in 2022.
• Ted Harvey
  Former State Senator from Douglas County and longtime “SCAM PAC” operator.
• Richard Holtorf
  State Representative from Akron apparently wants to try to explain his recent revelation about giving money to a college girlfriend who had an abortion.
• Trent Leisy
  The self-professed “MAGA King” is a member of something called the “Weld County Council.” So, that’s neat. 
• Mike Lynch
  Former House Minority Leader (as recently as Tuesday) who is still facing questions surrounding a recently-reported DUI from September 2022.
• Chris Phelen
  Apparently served as Chief of Staff for Rep. Doug Lamborn (Colorado Springs) from 2007-2010. Who knew?
• Justin Schreiber
  Law-breaking enthusiast. Honestly, we don’t know anything else about him. 
• Jerry Sonnenberg
  Subsidy farmer and longtime state lawmaker from Sterling who is probably the frontrunner at this early stage.
• Peter Yu
  Businessman who really likes running for public office but never gets very far.

That’s 11 candidates, but as we saw with Daniel Hendricks in 2022, there could always be a few last-minute surprise participants. 

Debate Strategerie

Chris Perez of Westword talked to some of the Republican candidates in advance of tonight’s debate. If those comments are any indication, Boebert is likely to get attacked early and often for her brazen carpetbagging attempt. 

Using images from the classic 1988 Nintendo game “Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out,” let’s break down the strategies of the verbal pugilists heading into tonight’s main event. In any political debate, there are generally four ways to approach the proceedings: 

1. Play Defense
2. Dance Around
3. Throw Punches

There is also fourth category, though it’s a little early for any of the candidates to worry about this too much: Don’t Get Knocked Out. This applies primarily to these four candidates:

• Mariel Bailey
• Chris Phelan
• Justin Schreiber
• Trent Leisy

These fairly unknown candidates need to do something to make themselves memorable while also avoiding silly mistakes that could instantly brand them as unsupportable (normally we’d use the phrase “un-serious,” but that term applies pretty broadly already). Peter Yu could be listed here as well, but his eventual knockout is more of a question of “when” and not “if.”

Both Mike Lynch and Richard Holtorf also need to be careful to avoid taking a canvas nap. Lynch is already reeling after a rough 10 days that resulted in his resignation as House Minority Leader in relation to a terrible 2022 DUI and weapons case that he has handled about as poorly as anyone could.

Holtorf, meanwhile, needs to do something to reset the narrative after his baffling speech on the State House Floor last week in which he insinuated that he helped to pay for an abortion for a college girlfriend.

Lynch and Holtorf have tried to blame their mistakes on the “liberal media,” which is beyond silly. In both cases there is video evidence of their errors (as well as a detailed police report for Lynch). Holtorf, however, seems determined to keep trying to spin the unspinnable. As he told Westword:

“If they’re going to ask me a question, I’d like them to ask me a question about my stance on pro-life,” Holtorf says. “I welcome that question. Because last Friday I bore my soul and told a very, very personal story, and the hacks in the media — Kyle Clark, that hitman for the Democratic Party — got it wrong. The dirtbag didn’t even bother to call me and have a conversation about it when I said reach out to me, come on down here, let’s talk. He is a media midget. He has no journalistic ethics, and it’s really sad. He’s just a hitman for the Democratic Party and the progressive left. And you can quote me. It’s disgusting.”

Trying to make Kyle Clark of 9News into the villain, when Holtorf’s own stupid mouth is what got him into trouble, is only going to cause him more problems. Holtorf really needs to learn about the first rule of holes: Stop digging.

Defense and Dancing

This (should) be the name of the game for Boebert tonight, but the CO-03 Congresswoman has never been particularly smart about reading a room. We’d expect most of the candidates to criticize Boebert for abandoning CO-03; for her antics during the “Beetlebert” scandal; and for generally acting like more of a wannabe celebrity than a public servant. Boebert is going to need to do more than just rattle off her standard talking points, which is what she did with Westword:

“I ran for Congress because I didn’t want my boys to grow up in a socialist nation,” Boebert says. “When we get President Trump back in office with Republican majorities in the House and Senate, we’ll be able to prevent that from happening by securing our southern border, cutting our out-of-control federal spending, unleashing our American energy development, promoting American ranchers and farmers, and getting our troops and veterans the support they deserve.”

Swing Away!

Bailey, Phelan, Schrieber, and Leisy definitely need to throw some punches in order get some attention for themselves. Getting a good quote in tomorrow’s media coverage is critical for these unknown names, and each candidate could benefit from getting one of the better-known challengers to engage with them.

Lynch and Holtorf would be wise to unleash haymakers in order to divert attention away from their own problems. Boebert, as mentioned previously, probably does the same.

The one candidate who needs to be particularly aggressive is Deborah Flora. She was the first candidate to formally enter the race in CO-04 but has been virtually invisible ever since. Her lane to a Primary victory also narrowed significantly when Boebert jumped in the race.

Flora has no real qualifications that she can point toward, and her lack of policy knowledge was crippling during her brief run for the GOP Senate nomination in 2022. Flora needs to have a moment…and she needs it to happen very soon. If she sits back and lets others do most of the talking, Flora’s candidacy could be all but over already.

We’ll break down all of the action in a “Debate Diary” tomorrow. We’ll also update this post with a link to the video stream when it is available.