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May 10, 2024 12:08 PM UTC

Lauren Boebert For Life? Those Are The Stakes

  • 12 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

FiveThirtyEight’s Kayleigh Rogers has an in-depth look out today at the fast-approaching June 25th Republican primary in CO-04, pitting carpetbagging quasi-incumbent Rep. Lauren Boebert against a crowded field of alternative candidates–a situation that, as we’ve been warning all year, increasingly favors Boebert in a primary that will in all likelihood decide who will represent this ultra-safe Republican district for years to come:

[A]fter nearly losing her seat in 2022 and surviving an objectively awful year in her personal life, Boebert is starting over on the other side of the state. Running in the 4th Congressional District in Colorado’s Eastern Plains, she’s hoping to reignite some of that early appeal in the state’s most conservative district — where, if she can win over enough voters in the June primary, she’ll be virtually guaranteed a seat in Congress as long as she wants it. There are a number of things working in her favor — name recognition, a crowded primary and a healthy war chest — but will they be enough for Boebert to inspire the same kind of support she had when she was just Lauren from Rifle?

The answer, as our readers know, is unless the crowded primary field shrinks dramatically in the next few short weeks, it’s looking pretty good for Boebert despite an annus horribilis that almost no one saw her surviving just a few months ago–including Boebert’s own campaign:

“The red carpet was not rolled out for her in January,” said Drew Sexton, a spokesperson for Boebert’s campaign. Indeed, a February poll of likely Republican voters in the 4th District found 42 percent had an unfavorable view of Boebert, more than the 38 percent who had a favorable view. And of the 49 percent who said they weren’t certain who they would vote for in the primary, 63 percent said it wouldn’t be Boebert…

Despite it all, opines Kayleigh Rogers and there’s less to quibble with every day:

[T]he spark she ignited on the Western Slope in 2020 seems to be rekindling on the other side of the state. In Colorado, there are two ways for candidates to get on the ballot for a primary election: either by collecting signatures or earning at least 30 percent of the vote at the district assembly (a meeting of local party organizers and devotees). Boebert managed to do both, and she even took top billing at the 4th District assembly in April. Now, the firebrand congresswoman is just one more first-place finish away from what is probably a safe House seat for life.

Boebert’s strategy in the CO-04 primary as we’ve repeatedly explained in this space is to win the race with a small plurality of support, relying on the crowded field of low-name ID opponents to claim fractional but in aggregate determinative shares of primary voters that allow Boebert’s stronger name recognition to carry the day–with a winning percentage around Boebert’s ceiling of support indicated February’s poll of the race, somewhere in the low 30s.

If there was a sense of urgency among Boebert’s unfriends in the Republican Party to stop her improbable triumph over personal and professional foibles that would have sunk just about any other candidate, we’re not seeing it as of this writing. There is no apparent push from influential Republicans to dead-ender primary candidates to withdraw and give a more viable contender a chance at a straight fight, which polls say Boebert would likely lose.

The consequence of that inaction could be Lauren Boebert representing Colorado Republicans in Congress for decades, or until her snowballing scandals finally do enough damage to endanger her Colorado’s safest Republican seat.

If that is not something fellow Republicans want, time is fast running out to prevent it.

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12 thoughts on “Lauren Boebert For Life? Those Are The Stakes”

  1. There would be a sort of satisfaction if Frisch wins in CO-3, all the Democratic incumbents win, and Boebert and Williams are the "Republicans" in Congress from Colorado.  Add on enough Democrats winning to put the Republicans in as the minority of the House.  Then season with the expanding conflict among "Republicans" if they lose the Presidency, the House majority, and either lose or barely win the Senate (despite one of the "best" maps ever for a "cycle" of seats).

    The intra-party disputes in Colorado and the RNC could be epic.

    Yeah, Boebert would be in office and would earn a federal pension.  She would have a platform to continue her MAGA hi-jinks.  But a relatively junior House member in the minority who does her best to antagonize those on the other side of the aisle really doesn't have much clout or exposure based on the work being done in Congress.

    "The people" might not suffer too much.  Colorado's Senators and the rest of the delegation would continue to work to provide some benefits to her district. 

  2. I don't know (or care) what Republicans want.

    I'm fine with her holding that safe seat indefinitely.  It's not like a less-horrible Republican in that district would vote less Republican.  So fine, let's keep her in the spotlight as a reminder of what peak-MAGAt acts like. And a reminder that our neighbors to the northeast are happy to endorse her antics.

    1. Yes, I agree. I have often said, Democrats who lament her presence in Congress shouldn’t be too disappointed. She is a shrill, vacuous tool of the QAnon movement…a fully captured water carrier for the OilyBoyz, the gunnies, and any other right-wing, authoritarian outfit that will keep her in front of the cameras and rolling in “government cheese”. Meanwhile, her oldest son appears in court on theft charges with, apparently, no one there to support him.

      Congresswoman Boebert seems to have abandoned her family just as she abandoned CD3 and her supposedly much-loved constituents. She, like her idol and cult leader, the Orange Don, is loyal only to herself, self-absorbed and profoundly greedy.

      She has done nothing to advance the Republican party, only to cripple it. Why would you want a functioning, reasonable, representative advancing the QAnon program of destruction, when you can have an uneducated buffoon embarrassing them daily? To me, she is irrelevant. The folks in CD 4 may differ, but I urge them to not worry…too much.

      1. There’s no doubt she’s simply giddy at the thought of the Oily Boyz controlling the future of a livable planet. On that note I’m in California with my FlexFuel Suburban and American-made-on-the-farm E-85 is half the price of premium gasoline (similar octane ratings). I lose about 15% of my mileage with E-85 but it’s clearly an economic plus for me. Why does BoBo hate American farmers (there is substantial ethanol production in CD-4. Is she going to support the farmers or undercut them?)  We could produce enough additional ethanol (30% of national supply by volume) from ag waste alone. Will she be able to get her hand out of the Oily Boyz pockets long enough to raise her hand and give us an “Amwn”? 
         

        1. And that doesn't say anything about the wind and solar installations (and the individual homes using them, too).

          The Democrats REALLY ought to be pinning her down about the overall energy balance that federal policy ought to support. I've not gone looking in detail, but bet she hasn't been in favor of federal subsidies or tax breaks equivalent to what the oil industry enjoyed for 100 years or so.

          1. Jerry should be pinning her down in this every chance he gets.  Weld and Douglas County, at least those load centers served by Xcel, are benefiting from progressive energy policy that is increasingly levelizing their costs. On the whole I'm confideent Jerry would have more positive things to say about renewable policy than HoBo, even though in the early days he was a vocal opponent to the mandates. 

      2. I agree, Duke.  As much as it pains me there's a possibility this nitwit could be the Congressional rep to the land of my homesteading great-great grandfather (and Voyeuger!  I can't imagine the posts he'd be authoring right now) she's a useful idiot. Regardless of who is in the majority she'll be nothing but a side show and a great reminder of what society writ large is up against. 

      3. I've had the misfortune of living in Districts with far-right clowns since moving to Colorado 20+ years ago. It sucks to live with them as your Representative, for sure, but Boebert is different. She's tied to a national fundraising network that will have an impact on the more purple areas of our state and threaten the gains we've made in the last decade. Letting her have a toe-hold in CD4 so that those in safe districts can laugh at her will leave all of us crying in the end.

        1. I see what you're saying.  But, having her as the face of the CO GOP has been an albatross for them.  She seems more likely to turn more people off in purple, and even light red areas, even with a national fundraising network.

           

            1. They won't pay attention to whatever Fox, Newsmax and AM hate radio tell them to. All it will take for her to win is the MAGAts in CD4. There are enough of them.

              The only chance to defeat her was for the Rs in CD4 to get behind one candidate. They didn't of course. So they'll get it good and hard, as H.L. Menken put it.

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