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July 02, 2024 12:46 AM UTC

Tuesday Open Thread

  • 27 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”

–H. L. Mencken

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27 thoughts on “Tuesday Open Thread”

      1. On polling: I've got no idea on the importance of this poll, and whether it is "good news" or not. I'd speculate Lauren Boebert is a Worthless POS using the term in quotation marks is a sign of snark, a confirmation of often expressed pessimism about the chances of a Biden win. A few immediate reactions.

        1. Polls this far out from the actual election are slightly better than a coin flip.
        2. This SINGLE poll is a snapshot, and almost certainly is a skew based on the most recent events.  putting it into the mix of other recent polls is worthwhile.
        3. The poll attempts to reflect "registered voters."  And because of the reporting issues, it likely reflects those registered as of sometime in May, 2024.  Those are NOT going to be the voters who are actually voting in October and November.

        The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey was conducted from June 28 to 30 and surveyed 2,090 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll. 

        The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

         

        1. Jesus Christ, Pollyanna, did you not watch the same event that the rest of us watched last Thursday? 

          Maybe Biden will have the Benjamin Buttons experience between now and November. Hope springs eternal.

          Keep drinking that Koolaid that Anita Dunn and the rest of his inner staff have been ladling out.

          I'm wondering if, when the spoiler candidates are included, RFK, Jr. gets a bump in his  numbers after Biden's senior moments last week.

           

          1. David, he had a golden opportunity to do that last night. But took a pass. 

            He came out and read a statement on the SCOTUS decision on immunity. Well delivered – coherent and forceful. And he literally looked more tanned and healthy than he did on Thursday.

            But he should have taken a couple of questions – and I mean literally two or three questions – before walking off if only to show that he can answer a question. Didn't need to make it a full hour-long press conference. Just a couple of unscripted questions and answers.

            But he took a pass and lost a chance to show what he can do.

  2. Bannon reports to prison.… whatever his bluster, his propaganda machine will be spewing less bile, and democracies all over the world have more breathing room for the next four months. 

    No pics of the perp walk, alas, since he surrendered with his lawyer in tow; but maybe prison will force him to clean up a bit. Waiting for the mug shot.

  3. As of the end of June, the Secretary of State reports on the ballots counted in the state.  I calculated the relatively scant percentages.


    returned…………1,007,810
    Active Reg…….3,872,503…..26.02%
    Inactive Reg……..563,897
    Grand Total…..4,436,400….22.72%

  4. Elegy for the United States – read the whole thing and wonder what will become of us.

    Letters from an American July 1, 2024 Heather Cox Richardson
    https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/july-1-2024

    Today the United States Supreme Court overthrew the central premise of American democracy: that no one is above the law.

    It decided that the president of the United States, possibly the most powerful person on earth, has “absolute immunity” from criminal prosecution for crimes committed as part of the official acts at the core of presidential powers. The court also said it should be presumed that the president also has immunity for other official acts as well, unless that prosecution would not intrude on the authority of the executive branch.

    This is a profound change to our fundamental law—an amendment to the Constitution, as historian David Blight noted. Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts said that a president needs such immunity to make sure the president is willing to take “bold and unhesitating action” and make unpopular decisions, although no previous president has ever asserted that he is above the law or that he needed such immunity to fulfill his role. Roberts’s decision didn’t focus at all on the interest of the American people in guaranteeing that presidents carry out their duties within the guardrails of the law…..

    Today, observers illustrated what Trump’s newly declared immunity could mean. Political scientist Norm Ornstein pointed out that Trump could “order his handpicked FBI Director to arrest and jail his political opponents. He can order the IRS to put liens on the property of media companies who criticize him and jail reporters and editors.” Legal analyst Joyce White Vance noted that a president with such broad immunity could order the assassination of Supreme Court justices, and retired military leader Mark Hertling wrote that he was “trying to figure out how a commander can refuse an illegal order from someone who is issuing it as an official act.”

    1. SCOTUS Takes a Sledgehammer to Democracy. David Kurtz at TPM

      Yesterday’s immunity decision by the Supreme Court took a sledgehammer to the constitutional foundation of American democracy and eviscerated the rule of law. It will, in my view, go down in the annals of wretched Supreme Court decisions alongside Dred Scott, Plessy v. Ferguson, and Korematsu. It makes Bush v. Gore look like a piker.

      Three days ahead of the 248th anniversary of the American colonists formally shucking off monarchial rule in revolutionary style in Philadelphia, the Supreme Court gilded the U.S. presidency with monarchial powers the likes of which we’ve never had before, never sought, and thought we had rid ourselves of two and half centuries ago.

      The American presidency now exists outside of the law and beyond the reach of the criminal law. In the Supreme Court’s view, the President is the law. This is new, it’s unprecedented, and the consequences are almost beyond our ability to imagine or foretell.

      1. Right now, there are nine U.S. Supreme Court justices. Five of those justices were appointed by a President that lost the popular vote.

        1. Chief Justice John Robert – George W.
          Bush
        2. Justice Samuel Alito Jr. – George W. Bush
        3. Justice Neil Gorsuch – Donald Trump
        4. Justice Brett Kavanaugh – Donald Trump
        5. Justice Amy Coney Barrett – Donald
          Trump

        While both of George W. Bush’s appointments were made in his second term, which he won with the popular vote, that re-election was only made a reality by his initial placement in office through Bush v. Gore.

        What we now have is a Supreme Court handpicked by presidents that the majority of the country rejected and were only made president through the Electorial College (don’t event get me started on the slave-era EC) 

    1. The good news is that Trump's wartime consiglieri, Rudy Giuliani, lost his NY law license today. With reciprocal discipline, any other jurisdictions in which he still held a valid license will soon pull the plug.

      QUESTION: In the newly-empowered chief executive, will Trump have the authority to grant and revoke law licenses? {sarcasm intended}

       

  7. STF-up about Biden. Josh Marshall from TPM:

    The election is about Donald Trump and the Supreme Court, the two forces working to overthrow the American republic. That’s the subject. It’s not Joe Biden.

    1. Josh Marshall

      From TPM Reader JG …

      Saw the front page NYT on the Dems “strong bench” that all took a pass on 2024 to avoid (as I would put it) Carter-Kennedy and “now we are stuck with Biden.”   So let’s pivot to something constructive: let’s have that strong bench out there from now through November supporting a national campaign (and candidacy) based on preserving and extending reproductive freedom, protecting democracy (keeping a power-tripping maniac from the presidency), and celebrating economic stability and even prosperity.  In other words, start the 2028 election cycle now: let Harris, Newsom, Pritzker, Whitmer, Beshear [Klobuchar, Warnock, Shapiro, Cooper?] start campaigning nationally.  It’s not just a President we are selecting but a set of beliefs about America.  Lots of would-be leaders need to be out there making the case.  (I don’t mean to exclude Obama; his role is assumed, but he shouldn’t be the only other voice.

      This is so precisely right it’s not even funny.

    3. If the Republicans force us into making the election about Trump and the Court, we lose. The election needs to be the brighter future Dems propose. You're much better in your next post, Park.

  8. The campaign in a nutshell…..

    Biden says Supreme Court ruling on immunity means Trump will be free to ‘ignore the law’

    Biden says Supreme Court decision on immunity means ‘there are virtually no limits’ on a president’s actions

    1. That is some unmitigated horseshit.  In light of Chevron and Trump, SCOTUS has given carte blanche for trump to do a lot of what would have previously been unconstitutional/criminal activity.  The good Rep. from Maine is clueless.

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