October 30, 2024 10:35 AM UTC

Caraveo Opens Small Lead In America's Hottest Congressional Race

• 4 Comments
• by: Colorado Pols

At the beginning of the month, an Emerson Polling survey of Colorado’s Eighth Congressional District found the race between incumbent Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo and her Republican challenger state Rep. Gabe Evans deadlocked at 44% with 12% of respondents still undecided. This poll was cited throughout October by both campaigns as a call to action to contend for a true tossup seat, and donors responded with millions making this race one of the most proportionately well-funded contests in the country. CO-08 is central to both parties’ designs on Republicans keeping control and Democrats retaking the House respectively, and in the last month as attention has focused on this race the candidates have faced more scrutiny than ever before.

According to Emerson’s new poll for FOX 31 out today, that October scrutiny hasn’t been good for Gabe Evans:

Incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo has a slight lead over challenger Gabe Evans in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, a new poll released Wednesday morning shows.

Caraveo, a Democrat, leads 47.5% over Evans, a Republican, who has 45.8% in the recent poll. Seven percent of respondents were still undecided when the polling occurred between Oct. 24 and Oct. 26…

“There is a significant gender divide separating the two congressional candidates; Evans leads among men 55% to 42%, while Caraveo leads among women 52% to 37%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said with the latest results.

First of all, it’s a small gain for Caraveo and the race is still well within the margin of error, so this is in no way a moment for Democrats to get complacent. With that said, the reference point of the prior Emerson poll at the beginning of the month allows us to establish a trend that’s positive for Caraveo, and Caraveo appears to be picking up more undecided support than Evans as those voters make their choice. Over the last month, Evans has been relentlessly hammered over his record on abortion rights, LGBTQ+ rights, immigration, child abuse, and avowed support for Donald Trump’s increasingly bitter and openly racist campaign. The examination of Evans’ record by local media was a little slow to roll out while the presidential race has dominated the headlines, but CO-08 voters have been given a long list of reasons why Gabe Evans’ closeted religious-right extremism is a bad fit for a congressional district almost perfectly split down the middle.

The trajectory of these two polls suggests voters are getting the message.