U.S. Senate See Full Big Line

(D) J. Hickenlooper*

(R) Somebody

80%

20%

Governor See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse

(D) Phil Weiser

(D) Jena Griswold

60%

40%↓

Att. General See Full Big Line

(D) M. Dougherty

(D) Alexis King

(D) Brian Mason

40%

30%

Sec. of State See Full Big Line

(D) George Stern

(D) A. Gonzalez

(R) Sheri Davis

40%

30%

State Treasurer See Full Big Line

(D) Brianna Titone

(R) Kevin Grantham

(D) Jerry DiTullio

60%

30%

20%

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

(R) Somebody

90%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

(R) Somebody

90%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Hurd*

(D) Somebody

80%

40%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert*

(D) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Crank*

(D) Somebody

80%

20%

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

(R) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) B. Pettersen*

(R) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(R) Gabe Evans*

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(D) Joe Salazar

50%

40%

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

December 03, 2024 12:01 PM UTC

Colorado Republicans and the $8 Million Treadmill

1 Comments
by: Colorado Pols

The 2024 election cycle in Colorado is almost complete, with just one significant recount still underway for control of a State House seat in Colorado Springs. Once that outcome is final, it will be time for Republicans to do some financial accounting for 2024…and the numbers won’t look very good at all.

Should Republican Rebecca Keltie hold on to a six-vote advantage to defeat incumbent Democratic Rep. Stephanie Vigil in HD-16, Colorado Republicans will have effectively spent $8 million dollars in order to net a grand total of three seats in the state legislature.

You read that correctly: $8 million dollars for three seats, none of which will change the basic math of the Democratic trifecta in Colorado.

Republican elected officials and consultants spent a lot of time following the November election crowing about preventing a Democratic “supermajority” in the state legislature, which is sort of like a football team bragging about scoring a touchdown in a game it ended up losing by 40 points. In a post-election statement, House Minority Leader Rose Pugliese was spinning hard:

“The message is clear: Coloradans want a lower cost of living and a thriving economy. The Democratic policies pushing higher taxes and fees are not the way forward for Coloradans across the state.”

That’s a bold take considering that Republicans only won seats in red districts that should probably have already been in their control anyway. House Speaker Julie McCluskie obviously had a different perspective:

“While we will miss our colleagues who worked tirelessly for their constituents, let’s be clear: the priorities of the MAGA GOP will be stopped dead in their tracks by voters who elected an overwhelming majority of legislative Democrats, the second largest Democratic majority since the 1960s. Their self congratulations ring hollow when they are still walking into the Capitol without a shred of voter support for their extreme agenda.”

It is true that Democrats will no longer hold the largest majority in modern state history when the legislature reconvenes on Jan. 8, 2025.

Democrats will have to settle for holding the second largest majority in modern state history. You’d have to squint pretty hard to consider that a victory for the GOP.

The “Supermajority” Canard

Gaining a “supermajority” in the state legislature would have required a one-seat pickup for Democrats in the State Senate. This was never a consensus goal for Democrats in 2024, who were instead focused on protecting incumbents and providing a buffer for 2026, when Democrats will have more State Senate seats to defend.

The “supermajority” claim is coming from Republicans, who needed to have some sort of plausible goal for fundraising purposes. After multiple cycles of heavy losses, Republican consultants justified their existence with major donors in 2024 with a spiel that was ambitious only in its audacity: Give us a lot of money so that things won’t get any worse.

Republicans spent millions of dollars to defend seats in heavily-Republican districts that they have historically held. Where they won — in places like the Western Slope and in beet-red Weld County — it was by very narrow margins.

State Senate

Democrats began the 2024 election cycle with a 23-12 majority in the State Senate. They ended the cycle with…a 23-12 majority in the State Senate.

Republicans spent at least $5.4 million dollars in State Senate races in 2024 for a net gain of zilch. The GOP took back the seat held by former Republican Kevin Priola (SD-13), which was only in Democratic hands because of Priola’s party switch in 2022, but lost a Republican-held seat in Colorado Springs (SD-12) that was open because longtime GOP lawmaker Bob Gardner was term-limited.

Here’s how some of the top State Senate races played out in 2024:

♦ SD-5 (Western Slope): Republicans outspent Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin to keep this seat in Republican hands (Marc Catlin will succeed Perry Will). Republicans invested in this race like it was their top priority – and it wasn’t even a pickup opportunity.

♦ SD-6 (Western Slope): Republicans spent roughly $800,000 to protect incumbent Sen. Cleave Simpson. The Democrats’ Independent Expenditure Committee for State Senate races, All Together Colorado, didn’t spend one cent in SD-6.

♦ SD-12 (Colorado Springs): Democrats went all-in to win a seat formerly held by longtime Republican firebrand Bob Gardner. Committees for both Democrats and Republicans spent about $1.8 million in this district, respectively.

Expenditures for committees supporting Republican candidates in State Senate races breaks down like this:

State House

Republicans spent at least $2.6 million targeting five House seats in 2024. Their BEST CASE SCENARIO was to return to the same 41-24 minority Republicans held in 2020. Should HD-16 end up in the Republican win column, the 2025 legislative session will begin with Democrats holding a 43-22 majority.

Here’s how some of the top State House races played out in 2024:

♦ HD-16 (Colorado Springs): Republicans spent more than $530,000 in support of Rebecca Keltie in hopes of winning back a seat they should have already held. A mandatory recount is currently underway after initial results showed Keltie leading Democratic Rep. Stephanie Vigil by only six votes. That recount will be concluded by Dec. 6.

♦ HD-19 (Erie): Republicans spent at least $430,000 to narrowly win a seat that Democrats had never held prior to 2022. Democrats, meanwhile, spent zero dollars on behalf of Jillaire McMillan, who only had a few months to campaign after incumbent Rep. Jennifer Parenti resigned in late July. Nevertheless, McMillan only lost to former State Rep. Dan Woog by 123 votes.

♦ HD-50 (Greeley): This was the only significant pickup victory for Republicans, with Ryan Gonzalez defeating Democratic Rep. Mary Young by a mere 563 votes despite outspending Democrats by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. Democrats had successfully defended this seat for 20 years.

Expenditures for committees supporting Republican candidates in State House races breaks down like this:

ROI = LOL

If Keltie holds on to win in HD-16, Republicans will have gained a net total of three legislative seats at a cost of roughly $2.6 million per district.

That’s a LOT of money to essentially be running in place after an election cycle that was generally good for Republicans across the country. It sets up an interesting fundraising pitch for Republican consultants in 2026: Give us more money to continue preventing a supermajority!

Go! Fight! Win! (a little)

One thought on “Colorado Republicans and the $8 Million Treadmill”

2Jung2Die says:

December 3, 2024 at 12:15 pm

I've gotta believe HD-19 was more of a screw-up on the D side than any great accomplishment by the Rs. Parenti dropped out in July when ballots go out in early October, and I've still never seen anything about her decision except a vague reference to "integrity." I don't doubt she had her reasons, but it seems like the action was handled poorly, especially the timing.

Log in to Reply

Login

Lost Password

Colorado Republicans and the $8 Million Treadmill

The “Supermajority” Canard

State Senate

State House

ROI = LOL

Comments

One thought on “Colorado Republicans and the $8 Million Treadmill”

Leave a Comment Cancel reply

Recent Comments

Posts about

Posts about

Posts about

Posts about

Posts about

Newsletter