3 thoughts on “Friday Open Thread”

1. WIll Trump Cave to China? Noah Smith.

   Noah Smith has been loudly warning that China's massive manufacturing base gives it a world-dominating economy.

   Trump’s tariff threats, like his promise to bring down grocery prices, may be mostly bluster. During his campaign, he promised 60% tariffs on China; now, he has apparently reduced the number to 10%. That is a pretty small amount, and exchange rate appreciation will easily cancel it out. 

   The second is that Trump’s tariffs on U.S. allies will actively hurt the effort to match China in manufacturing. Currently, Trump is threatening only 10% tariffs on China, but 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. This is hopefully just bluster and theater (in which case we should ask how an economic approach relying heavily on bluster and theater will help the U.S. catch up to China in manufacturing). But if it’s for real, it will hurt U.S. manufacturing, by making imported components more expensive. Remember that creating a large common market outside of China is one of the essential strategies for matching the Chinese manufacturing juggernaut; U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and other allies work directly against that goal.

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   1. Where will Dave Williams come down on China tariffs? His livelihood, when he's not exploiting GOP donors, depends on his father in law's Chinese import-export business. 

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2. A post on a different subject than I normally do – 

   Autism Means More Problems

   But it does NOT preclude success

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