Oh, and remember candidate Trump’s promise to “lower inflation on Day One”?

U.S. headline inflation for 2025 was revised upward from the forecast at the end of the Biden era. Now, U.S. inflation is expected to be higher this year than last year. The same is true for “core” inflation (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, which strips out volatile energy and food prices). That too is now expected to reaccelerate — that is, it will be higher this year than last (3 percent in 2025, compared with 2.8 percent in 2024).

It’s not just OECD that is predicting economic pain to grow along with Trump’s maddening trade wars:

Last week, Wall Street forecasts collected by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey also showed lower growth and higher prices than expected just a few months ago.

“The whirlwind of policy changes, most notably on-again, off-again tariff increases, the associated threat of a global trade war, a potential army of unemployed government employees, and possibly large declines in federal government spending have rocked both consumer and business sentiment and raised the specter of what might be called ‘stagflation-lite,’” the Blue Chip report said. [Pols emphasis]

We’d love to be more optimistic here, since nobody benefits from a bad economy, but it sure seems like things are going to get worse before they get better.

It didn’t have to be this way.