U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
July 10, 2007 05:15 PM UTC
45 Comments
Obviously CD2 needs to show the candidates closer together, based on fund raising. I would still keep Shafroth with the longest odds as he has the most to overcome in terms of name-recognition.
CD4: Angie’s superior fundraising has to be recognized and Markey’s laissez-faire attitude towards fundraising should mark her down signnificantly. Eric Eidness should have even further odds. This will be the Angie and Betsy show for a while.
CD5: I would be giving Crank better odds than Lamborn at this point. And have Rayburn as a spoiler only.
CD6: who the f**k knows! Personally I think Wiens should challenge the asshole in a primary and be done with it.
It may be good to add a legislative line. At ths point I would say its a safe bet that the Dems will maintain the House, but there could be some battles on the Senate side, where the margin is still pretty close.
my $.02
CD-2 is wide open. I think Polis benefits from a strong Shafroth campaign, and it hurts Joan. Plus the prospect of Jared shoving “Fitz-Gerald officially ‘honored’ George Bush’s occupation” hurts her even more.
CD-4’s Dem primary is a different story. Last time you put too much stock in Betsy’s Fort Collins endorsements, while Angie shows she’s the only one who understands the value of a warchest, and her base has shown it is alive and well. Bringing in pros like Welchert & Britz is another good sign, while it looks like Betsy hasn’t even hired a fundraiser and Ken Salazar will be dead weight in a primary. Betsy’s terrible “money doesn’t matter” spin on Colorado Confidential doesn’t help at all. Eidsness has spent the quarter flailing on the blogs instead of getting his act together – he’s the new Herb Rubenstein.
CD-5 I would leave about the same. Every day a new “stick a fork in him” is issued against Doug Lamborn, but even if he is a total moron he is an incumbent who will have the anti-abortion and Club For Growth groups going to bat for him again. No change until Crank has more than chatter going for him.
I don’t mean Dan. I mean Pols. Sorry, Dan.
CD2:
Explain how the Shafroth campaign hurts Fitz-Gerald? That’s an interesting take. And you know Fitz-Gerald never honored an “occupation” of Iraq. That’s just BS. She may have voted for the resolution back in 2003 while 70% of the nation was behind the President (except for me). She also voted to oppose the escalation in Iraq this year. What has Jared or Will done to end the war in Iraq?
I would tighten up the odds on this race between Jared and Joan with Will still needing some name ID.
CD4:
Angie didn’t bring in a “warchest” of funds, but neither did any other Dem candidate. They all need to be hitting the phone more. This race hasn’t changed a bit.
CD6:
If Harvey, Wiens, Balmer and Andrews all run it will be better than the Republican Presidential candidates trying to out Gitmo each other!
CD-2. If Shafroth siphons off a lot of the volunteer base, then Joan has a huge problem. Her ground game won’t be able to overcome Jared’s media domination. Face it, no one will care about A41 in nine months. Also, you can spin Joan’s resolution vote multiple ways. Calling it a “pro-occupation” vote is just one nasty way…and it obviously strikes a nerve. You can argue about the merits of the spin all you want, but it will hurt Joan nonetheless.
CD-4. Again you miss the point. Betsy has stated publicly that money doesn’t matter and clearly fundraising didn’t go well. She only looks like she’s clueless about what she’s doing in the race. Angie is obviously on the phone raising money because she knows what it takes to go up against Musgrave. You’re right, the race hasn’t changed: Betsy was never viable in the first place. She blew her biggest push on an endorsement-heavy announcement, and now that is fading into the rearview mirror. Now she still has a name recognition problem, and is not building the bank account to be able to increase it. All Betsy has left is going negative on Angie, and after that she will only end up being crucified in the primary for doing it.
In CD2 that could be true, only if Jared is not reaching out for a volunteer base. It’s as if you are suggesting he’s going to only rely on media, which can’t be true for any candidate that is serious about running for Congress. I could be wrong, but I’m willing to bet that Joan has a larger volunteer base and it’s actually Jared and Will competing for the other active Dems looking to get involved. Jared is courting the GLBT community while Imm sure Will is working on the Enviro’s. Joan has done a lot of good during her service in the legislature for both of those groups.
I didn’t bring up A-41, but if you want to keep reliving that go for it. And ss for the war-resolution rhetoric being nasty… spin happens but it doesn’t make it completely true. These are all great candidates. I just hope it doesn’t get too nasty.
I don’t completely agree with you on CD4. Angie has been in this race for a lot longer than Betsy and hasn’t raised the money or support from the big wigs. She’s faultering. Betsy just hasn’t done anything to stand out in front of the pack yet.
about recruiting from different volunteer bases. But if I was Joan, I would desperately want to tap the enviros — especially after such a pro-environment legislative session. I think that hurts her more if Shafroth is viable. For what it’s worth, I also think Jared is going to have an easier time tapping into the CU kids.
Angie was only in the race a couple of weeks longer than Betsy, so it’s a very good sign that she’s raising that amount of money when a lot of the big donors are waiting to see how the primary develops. Angie is first tier while Betsy is struggling to get into the second tier and gain some traction beyond the Fort Collins insiders. It’s just not going to happen for her.
I can’t argue with any of that.
Angie is clearly in the lead in CD-4 and the top three in CD-2 and clearly much closer then previously thought.
How Schafroth wins the nomination is the same way Gray Davis did in California in 1998.
He was the least funded candidate in a three-way Democratic primary. The two big money candidates (two millionaires who self-financed their campaigns), Al Cheche and Jane Harmon, spent a fortunate trashing one another brutally. What little money Davis had was spent on presenting himself as the clean and competent guy. Davis won on something along the lines of a 40-30-30 split.
Schafroth can do the same thing as long as Jared and Joan focus on trashing each other and ignore Schafroth.
Carol Moseley Braun won the Illinois Democratic Senate Primary in 1992….
I remember that election, mind you I was 14…but I am from CA and the situation was similar. Although, Davis actually won 60-20-20…it ended up being a blowout.
The only difference is that Davis was already a statewide office holder. People knew who Gray was…he’d been around for decades. Harman wasnt well known outside of her SoCal congressional district and Checchi was, well…just some rich guy. JFG has the name ID and “trust” of the district like Davis did. Shafroth will need to build that while his counterpart in this comparison, Gray Davis, didnt.
Roughly, the state will move more towards dems in the next election.
an idea for you. Allow the readers to rate another set of these. It might be interesting to see which, if any, of the readers have a better grasp on this. A little bit of php can do the trick. Think of this a simply doing myspace but for politics.
rate it in terms of liklihood to win the Colorado caucus broken down by party…
It seems like one focusing on the CO caucus would certainly possible.
The red arrow points the right way, but, I’d say he’s no better odds–I’d say he’s at worse odds–than Jeff Crank. Of course, Crank hasn’t declared so perhaps that colors the picture, but, Lamborn is way overstated at 4-1.
However, after the July 15 deadline for FEC reporting on 2nd quarter fundraising for Lamborn’s campaign, I’ll feel even better about more comments on Lamborn’s odds. I don’t think he’s going to raise enough money at Jack Abramoff’s old firm this Wednesday at it’s “meet and greet” it’s holding for him to make up in the 3rd quarter for what I believe (and hope) is a dismal 2nd quarter fundraising round for him.
I say better Lamborn’s odds. That will keep us all motivated!!! If at any point you raise a non-incumbent, very quite and behind-the-scenes guy to be even with Lamborn’s odds I will scream. But seriously, we need to not be complacent and assume that voters know what a complete bumbler Lamborn is. Hence we need worse odds for Crank currently, as he has no momentum of any sort and Lamborn needs better odds.
It will keep our eyes focused on the goal of putting Lamborn back into his 2,500 a year job as a lawyer.
I dislike Lamborn as much as anyone here, but your assertion at this point is baseless. Lamborn will have money and incumbency.
Crank can make the case that Lamborn is stupid and isn’t representing the district, but that can only take him so far.
If you can name me even five votes that Lamborn cast that Crank could use to strike a stark contrast between the two, I will agree. But if you think Lamborn is history ONLY because he sucks at being a congressman, the line should remain in Lamborn’s favor.
In CO-2 I would give them all 3:1 odds. Why? Because the real bottom line of the recent $$$ is that all 3 are serious and credible contenders. And with Shafroth & JP raising basically the same amount (discounting JP’s self donations) and both beating JFG, all you can say is that it’s anyone’s race now. I can give good arguments while any of them is in the lead but right now we have no idea.
In CO-4 it presently looks like AP will beat BM and will then lose to MM. So I would give MM 2:1 (yuck), AP 6:1, and BM 15:1. As to Eric – maybe 100:1. And for those hoping AP gets the County Commissioner opening leaving BM this race – her odds don’t improve because her problem is not AP is doing better but that she did lousy in raising money.
– dave
Maybe Betty can be appointed to the County Commission and leave the Congressional field mostly wide open for Angie (I’m not counting Eidness because I don’t expect him to be on the ballot in August 08)
Except Polis is probably a point behind F-G and Shafroth is probably a point behind Polis. Name recognition is the only differentiating factor now. Money can buy name recognition. That said, clearly, with Joan’s access to the media and events in her role as Senate President, she is going to have the highest name recognition for a while. That will change though. In addition, even with her and Jared’s higher name recognition…we aren’t talking super high percentages here. They all need to boost name ID.
CD-4: I think you underestimate Eidsness. He is working his tail off contacting all sorts of Dems and trying to gather support. I’d put him in front of Paccione. Because of how hard he is working and because people just don’t like supporting someone who has already lost in the same race.
CD-5: Lamborn shouldn’t be as close as you have him. He is the incumbent. There is no way that the odds of Joan Fitz-Gerald being in Congress in 2009 are BETTER than Doug Lamborn’s chances. You guys know that incumbency is just about the single greatest advantage you can have.
It seems silly to recognize Jared beyond the money that he actually raised, and with Shafroth and him less than $10 thousand dollars apart, this is anyone’s game.
from jared’s fundraising reports are the names gill and stryker…hmm…doesn’t this smell funny to anyone else? Do I see a 527 on the way?
As was confirmed by the Polis campaign friday, Jared has been lavishing large gifts to key politicos in the state the last couple years. We should demand to know if those gifts were in-kind to his campain or we need to verify he paid gift taxes on his 1040. A fancy trip to miami in a private jet would exceed the 10k exclusion…the fuel alone. Also, who else has he provided these too?
Also, I discovered http://www.gayerthan… the other day. Turns out I’m not the only one pissed at the gay community. How dare they not recognize that Jared didn’t do a damn thing for the community while on the state board of education. He played hokey pockey with his “closet” door for years. While Joan delivered Ref I, ENDA, Second parent adoption and domestic partnership rights – is the gay community so excited to have someone who sleeps with men that they’ll forget what Joan has done for them?
Lastly, how will the 2nd CD feel about Jared entertaining at 30,000 feet aboard his private jet? In a district notorious for their environmental advocacy, something tell me this isn’t a feather in his hat. Rather a big…very big carbon footprint across his face.
Wake up people.
if so, I was be surprised to see him donating anything to one of her opponents.
You’re going to have a coronary if you keep this up 13 months out … and what exactly are you talking about? Jared was one of the primary funders of Ref I, as I recall, and has been front and center on GLBT issues even before he came out.
Ref I was supported financials by many other prominent democrats and republicans, but not Polis.
You will see Jared was not one of the primary donors. In fact straight women, married (straight) couples felt more compelled to give Ref I more funding. Not that he didn’t give, but certainly not enough to claim any real connection to it’s passage, or in this case, failure.
But I shouldn’t complain too much, he doesn’t even mention gay rights on his website.
I just wonder if he typed up his stance on “Climate Change” aboard his private jet.
“…is the gay community so excited to have someone who sleeps with men that they’ll forget what Joan has done for them?”
Doesn’t Joan sleep with men too (or at least a man)? Does this mean that you are advocating the gay community endorse Shafroth?
Jared Polis has done nothing but sleep with another man and show up at pride! So what? The man only really came out when it became clear he was running for CD-2! Now all this sudden he wants it to be a big deal that he’s a gay man?! Joan has done TONS more (as listed above) for the GLBT community than Jared! I could care less what his orentation is, what matters is his actions. And his actions for the GLBT community pale in comparison to his actions in support of that botched Ethics Amendment! In the end the GLBT community should want a representative thats a real ally, not just who happens to be “one of them.” COME ON WE’RE SMARTER THAN THAT!
To try and earn points with the left wing part of the party, or to try and head off rumors before they did damage?
He has funded a number of politicians and causes. That is out in the open. I would assume that he when he has hired, he did not hire based on what somebodies preference was or was not. I would assume that he hired the best. After all, is that not what you want in a good company?
As to his support of “a botched ethics amendment”, the amendment is on hold, it is not dead. The real problem is that current politicians are trying hard to fight it. It may be in the end that it will need changes, but it is a fight worth persuing.
I FULLY agree with you that you should not hire him because of his sex orientation (I hate that gills hires based on sex orientation; reverse discrimination is just as bad). Instead, check out the fact that he is outside of system and has helped make an impact on it. I would even go so far as to argue that he has done more for Colorado than has JFG. Why? Because he was part of the triad that turned Colorado from being a red state, and is helping to save it. He has helped not just JFG but ALL of the dems and our state. Without his actions, JFG would not even be where she is today.
Then, I’ll assume you’ll put Schaffer at 5-1 with a red arrow pointing upwards.
Udall raised over $1,000,000.
http://www.coloradoc…
Just change the comment… “Udall doesn’t need to do much to maintain strong lead” is probably more appropriate.
The CD-2 line is completely wrong. The fundraising alone shows how the seat will not be going to CarpetBagger Joan. I was very surprised to see Shafroth’s strong earnings.
CD-3… Duh. With the way things are going for the GOP in that district John’s only opponent will be a Green Party candidate.
CD-4: Angie has to go up. A friend of mine in Ft. Collins says she is like a new person, knows what mistakes her campaign made (both her and her staff, which is refreshing to hear a candidate admit personal mistakes) and is willing to come on better and strong this next election.
CD-5: Sorry, not a big fan of Dobsontown and could care less what goes on there. Didn’t we draw that district as a GOP dumping ground anyhow? Looks like more of the same to me and I just don’t see any change in ’08. Which is actually kind of good isn’t it? The longer they have the buffoon of Congress the better.
CD-6: Actually, I’m tempted to just cut and paste from CD-5 to here. Yet another dumping ground to keep Republicans out of our Districts. And speaking of buffoons… I say Tom-tom runs again and wins again (sadly), because even if Jesus ran in that district, if he road in on a Donkey, he’d lose.
CD-7: We should really wait to see who the Repubs put up before claiming it as our own. After all, Ed won it by beating a guy who ran second string to Beauprez. If the GOP got smart and carpet bagged in someone good, like that Crank guys maybe (a friend of mine heard him speak last fall in Denver and thought he was very strong) just like they did with Beauprez, we may be in trouble. But until someone raises their hand, I guess there would be nothing to change on the line huh?
Legislature: If the GOP pulls their head out, we could be vulnerable in the Senate. I don’t see any significant changes in the House though unless the GOP can come up with new faces.
much as the Green Party now is the only opposition in C.D. 1!
Republican to make any type of serious run at Perlmutter…especially since they have all of their problems at the Taj Mahal…
Look for Joan Fitz-Gerald to reorganize her campaign team.
Joan well remembers how Mary Alice was in over her head in 1998 and this allowed Bill Owens to stage a huge come from behind upset. If Mary Alice cannot even organize a decent fundraising team she will be out soon. Look for Steve Welchert or Jim Merlino to come to the rescue to save Joan’s campaign
I’m sure Fitz-Gerald would want to “reorganize” Mandarich when she is considered one of the most powerful political players in the state.
Those of us who worked on the Schoettler campaign still recall the Mandarich meltdown. Dick Wadhams thanks his lucky stars every night for Mary Alice. Mary Alice blew a double digit lead with less than a month to go and Bill Owens slipped in by less than 20,000 votes.
I wasn’t here then. Mind filling me in as to what happened?
I wasn’t there in ’98, but I’d say Mary Alice has made up for whatever gaffe(s) she committed.
Surely the quarter was a disappointment – but, in case you’ve forgotten, it’s July of 2007. Still over a year and five more quarters to go (is that right, or is it four?).
I’m not saying one thing or the other about who’s going to win or who’s the best candidate, I will say that it’d be a mistake to count these women out this early while they still have so many advantages in the race. I doubt either Polis or Shafroth will be so foolish.
First, I’d love a place to have a Presidential Line, but it won’t fit in the main page graphic. Maybe a linky?
Senate: Udall just posted a very strong notice to Schaffer that he’s in for a beating. Certainly the current remark about Udall has to go by the wayside given the new fundraising numbers. Schaffer’s decision to hold off on reporting isn’t generally encouraging for his supporters.
CD-1 Line: Add it. It’s pointless, but add it – for completeness. It’s a Feng Shui thing.
CD-2 Line: Is Tom Stone even running? The reporting numbers mean that the three Dems need to close significantly. I’d still keep Joan on top, but only barely; Jared right behind, and Will right behind him. If they were real odds, I’d give out 2.4:1, 3:1, and 4:1 odds (5, 4, and 3 in 12 respectively for low numbers’ sake). If you have to dole it out in limited quantities, the Mo has to go with Shafroth.
CD-3 Line: Salazar has enough of a warchest he doesn’t need to worry right now, even if he doesn’t report strong numbers.
CD-4 Line: MM is moderating; maybe it will work. She stays where she is, but Angie’s numbers have to boost her back up into second. Betsy Markey’s got to come up with something better than her line the other day.
CD-5 Line: Jesus comes in second to any Republican in this race barring a self-inflicted wound to the face by the GOP. Lamborn’s incumbency and the fact that his main potential opponent hasn’t declared yet keep him on top.
CD-6 Line: Tancredo gets a bit of a boost from his immigration “win”, but he’s obviously looking for a way out of his House seat and is vulnerable. The only thing lacking is an official challenge, and that keeps him on top.
CD-7 Line: If the GOP has a candidate willing to oust Perlmutter, they haven’t even begun discussing it yet.
Of course we’re just talking about the Republicans here; a Dem doesn’t stand a chance in this district.
Tancredo had previously said he’d tell us by June whether he was going to run again. Like other promises, this one fell by the wayside.
I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts Tancredo will run again, and if he does no Republican will oppose him. He’s got name recognition and will claim responsibility for derailing the immigration bill (even though of course it lost in the Senate and never even made it to Tancredo’s House). He’s abysmal as a representative, but he’s a shrewd and successful politician.