U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) George Stern
(D) A. Gonzalez
(R) Sheri Davis
40%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
July 24, 2007 11:51 PM UTC
22 Comments
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To be honest, I do not think that WS has the ablity to win it. But I think that he will undermine JFG, not JP. Likewise, JP will have a difficult time. There is now LOADS of cheap shots that can be taken. In spite of that, JP has a slight edge in my book.
BTW, pols, thanks for finally including paul in the republican polling. I have found it funny that you on the mutlitudes before you included EVERYBODY else (including all the sub zeros). It was interesting to see that he was scoring so high in our online, but did so-so on the others (1% which was still above the majority of the pubs).
Also, please consider setting up a presidential line to the big line. After all, technically, he (or she) is part of that vote (of course, a number of folks may argue that we have not elected a president for the last 2 elections).
how dirty the campaign gets between JFG and JP. Having worked on Carol Mosely-Braun’s Senate campaign in 1992, I can tell you that voters will vote for the “third” candidate (Shafroth would be playing the CMB role in this analogy) if they get so disgusted with the negativity of the top two (JFG would be Alan Dixon and JP would be the self-funding multi-millionair Al Hofeld).
The dynamics could be different in CD 2 in that one of the “top two” actually finished third in fundraising last quarter—I would expect that to be an anomoly though and look for JFG to pick up quite a bit in her fundraising.
JFG takes an early lead, JP storms ahead, then JFG pulls back even within 5 minutes.
There’s some serious partisan ballot-box stuffing going on here.
I originally saw this as a two-way race but Shafroth’s fundraising makes him a real contender, unlike that guy that ran against Lamm and Perlmutter in 2006. (What the hell was his name? How soon we forget…)
It’s a toss up for me.
He was the one who ran against Lamm in Perlmutter in CD-7 in 2006.
I just voted to see how the voting was going
The guy is way behind in actually having an organization. His web site is a joke and I filled out the volunteer form last week and still have not heard from them.
He clearly can raise money but that’s not the only thing needed to win.
and just don’t want your “expertise”, David. 🙂
It is neat that you guys do this. I wish you had one from a week before the fundraising numbers came in. My guess is that most would say Joan by far, and Jared and Will’s supporters would vote for them. People are greatly influenced by your predictions in the Big Line I think.
but I said for a while that pols was underestimating Jared.
depends on whether EMILY’s List goes totally all out against Jared and how much money Jared can raise nationally. If EL goes all in for the primary, it could make a huge difference. But I also think Jared has a lot of support nationally. His foundation has been pretty helpful for years and I think people remember his generous spirit. Either way, it looks like a bruising hard primary.
Jared does have broad national support. But how does that really help the guy who already has more than enough money? This is a Congressional Primary, national support only means something if those people actually show up and start marching door to door. Look for the most aggressive ground campaign to win; the air wars will be non-stop and potentially brutal but ought to come to a draw.
I actually can construct scenaios where any of the three win.
I think the most likely scenario has JFG winning. Jared would be the second most likely. I’m not sure I can imagine Shafroth taking this thing; he will have to do a lot to overcome the other two candidates and their organizations.
WS can win if JP and JFG concentrate on each other, he positions himself as the heir to Udall and Tim Wirth, and he is able to mobilize the hard to control greens.
Look at the numbers in the field. The race will be won in Adams County. JFG’s strength is in JeffCO which is a a small percentage of the vote. WS has strength in the I-70 corridor and Boulder. JP in Broomfield and some Boulder.
Shafroth could be a surprise if he can mount an effective campaign organization and do well in Adams County.
I think there are around 140 precincts in Adams and fully 1/3 of the dem votes, but I think Adams skews union which is JFG territory.
I want to know more about Shafroth to see how he would do, but I must say I was impressed by some of the names on his donner list.
Joan Fitz-Gerald may have had a negative surprise on fundraising, but this is a Democratic Party primary we’re talking about, and most Democratic Primary voters (about 60%) are women. Plus, Joan has demonstrated she CAN raise big bucks, and thus Emily’s List $$ will come out for her.
As long as she is competitive in money, the math of two men and one woman equals a victory for the woman.
By and large, women do not vote for female candidates just because they are women, and polls have shown that plenty over the years. The “women’s vote” is as mythical as the yeti and the Lochness Monster.
But the fact that “women voters” don’t necessarily vote for women doesn’t prove that Democratic primary women voters don’t do so. I think it quite likely there *is* a gender gap for this group.
They’re right on this one. It’s one of my favorite myths to dispel.