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April 18, 2013 03:01 PM UTC

"Not a single one of the Republicans we tested has a positive statewide favorability rating."

  • 19 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Stunning numbers today from a new Public Policy Polling report show that Colorado Republicans would have a lot of digging to do just to get in a hole by 2014:

With no serious Republicans running for either of these offices yet we basically tested every major GOP figure in the state against both Hickenlooper and Udall: former Congressman Bob Beauprez, Congressman Cory Gardner, Secretary of State Scott Gessler, 2010 Senate candidate Jane Norton, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, Attorney General John Suthers, former Congressman Tom Tancredo, and Congressman Scott Tipton.

Not a single one of the Republicans we tested has a positive statewide favorability rating. [Pols emphasis] The one who comes closest is Suthers, who still has a -6 favorability rating. In addition to being unliked the GOP bench is also largely unknown- the only one with higher than 52% name recognition is Tancredo.

Only one of the Republicans comes within single digits of Hickenlooper or Udall in any of the match ups. That's Beauprez who trails each of them by 7- 50/43 against Hickenlooper and 48/41 against Udall.

Hickenlooper leads everyone else we tested by either 10 or 11 points- 50/40 over Gessler, 49/39 over Suthers, 50/40 over Tipton, 51/40 over Gardner, 50/39 over Norton, 49/38 over Stapleton, and 52/41 over Tancredo.

Udall leads everyone else we tested by margins ranging from 10-13 points. It's 49/39 over Gardner, 49/38 over Norton, 50/38 over Suthers, 51/39 over Tancredo, and 50/37 over Gessler, Stapleton, and Tipton.

Holy crap is right. Even Rep. Cory Gardner, the GOP's de-facto "rising star," doesn't come within 10 points of either Gov. John Hickenlooper or Sen. Mark Udall. Forget not being in the same room–he's barely in the same state. This is so dismal we don't even know what to say.

Gov. John Hickenlooper's uptick in disapproval makes sense for a number of reasons: in addition to factors cited by PPP hurting him with Republicans and conservative-leaning independents like gun safety and civil unions, Hickenlooper faces growing discontent on his left from conservation-minded Democrats upset with his positions on oil and gas drilling. Even with all of that counting against him two and a half years into his term, there's absolutely nothing here to indicate Hickenlooper will be seriously threatened in 2014.

Likewise with Sen. Mark Udall, who handily bests any of the Republican challengers PPP matched him up with–beating Rep. Cory Gardner by ten points, twelve points over Attorney General John Suthers, and former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, the GOP's 2010 primary loser by nine.

The fact that former Rep. "Both Ways" Bob Beauprez polls best of any of these prospective challengers underscores just how bleak a situation Republicans find themselves in today. 

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19 thoughts on ““Not a single one of the Republicans we tested has a positive statewide favorability rating.””

  2. Silly Pols liberals!  A-Bot has already informed us of the Super Secret Plan to End the Viet Nam War  convince women, young people and others that Colorado Republican leaders never mean any of that stuff they say the rest of the year. 

    The Silent Majority and the Sleeping Giant are pissed at Democrat Over-Reach and they are just waiting and just you wait!  Its going to be BIG!! We heard it here first. 

  3. An alternate take…

    http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2013/04/18/freefall-liberal-ppp-finds-hicks-favorability-numbers-sustain-20-hit-since-november/

    The liberal Public Policy Polling’s most recent poll comparing the possible 2014 statewide race contenders uncovered an amazing bit of information – Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper’s favorability has taken a huge hit over the past five months. Since November, Hick’s disapprovals have gone from 26% to 44%.  At the same time, his approvals numbers have taken a 2% hit.

    These numbers are revealing in that they show Hick is increasingly unsuccessful at hugging the middle of the road.  The numbers also reveal how the Colorado House and Senate Democrats’ radical left wing agenda has damaged his creds.  Of course, the fact that Hickenlooper has seconded his leadership role and responsibilities to East Coast politicians doesn’t help.  This was particularly true during the Dems’ gun grab this session, which they’ve admitted have nothing to do with actually preventing violence.

    The gun grab had everything to do with the agendas of President Obama, Vice President Biden, who personally lobbied Democratic members of Colorado’s legislature, and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who funds the whole outfit with Mayors Against Illegal Guns.  Colorado elected a governor to lead Colorado.  It’s worse than poor leadership, it’s almost as if he’s betrayed his position by not sticking up for Colorado under the pressure from East Coast liberals.

    In the end, PPP’s analysis of the head to head doesn’t matter at this point because no one is paying attention to Republicans who might run.  What does matter is that Hick’s seriously softening numbers will almost surely earn him a serious challenger.

      1. If a serious challenger comes from the left, it will only reaffirm the truism that when Democrats have a firing squad it's always in a circle.

    3. Serious question for you ArapaGOP. Do you see the GOP running a moderate to try an appeal to people in the middle? (By moderate I mean someone who supports gay marriage, a route to citizenship, is not going to impose their view on abortion on everyone, and is open to increased taxes?)

      Or do you think it will be someone trying to sell the conservative message?

  4. Alternate explanation for Hick's decline — being seen as an O&G shill isn't a good idea.  More bad news for the GOP:  Coloradans aren't stupid.

    But just keep telling yourself the way to increase the GOP's popularity is to purge the non-conservatives so that more billionaires, reluctant to support the GOP, will come forward once ideological purity is restored.

  5. Yes PPP is considered more left leaning but their points have never been wildly off. So maybe the leads are a couple of points less. Interestingly, prior to the 2012 election the generic for Dem congressional candidates was consistantly  higher than for Rs and Dems did pick up seats in the House. Lately generic Dems win by about an average of 5, that's very significant, points even with Razzie. Doesn't mean every red state R is going to lose by any means but looks good for picking up more seats if the the generic preference holds

  6. In fairness to the Republicans, Hick is pretty much the most popular politician in the state, bar none, even if he has rising unfavorables.  If Udall and Hick were mentioned in the same question, Udall might also benefit by association.  The fact that the head to heads are so similar across the board also suggests that survey respondents don't currently distinguish the challengers very finely and are basically treating the question as a referrendum vote which makes sense so far from election season.

    If I'm the GOP recruiting guy or a candidate considering running, I take this survey as an indication that I should use my best informed judgment, ignore the polling since I have to run somebody, and hope that the partisan tides change between now and the fall of 2014.

    1. I would imagine some of those rising unfavorables are coming from disgruntled Dems ( I'm certainly not feeling much approval for him these days) who certainly won't vote for a conservative R instead.  Neither will the overwhelming majority help a conservative R out by voting for some third party candidate in protest.  The kind of moderate Rs who like Hick ( I know a few) aren't so rabid about guns that they'll vote against him because he didn't veto gun legislation and the things that piss off Dems are mainly fine with them. 

      Taken together that's a recipe for electoral success in violet blue Colorado. Hick isn't going anywhere unless he wants to do something else.  Doesn't look like Udall will be shown the door by the available GOP "talent" either. Unless ArapG's great big insider secret surprise changes everything? Anybody buying that one?

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