February 28, 2012 07:03 PM UTC

5 of Colorado Statesman's "Top 12 Races to Watch" are in Jeffco

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• by: Colorado Pols

The Colorado Statesman’s inimitable Ernest Luning last week gave his rundown of the top 12 tightest legislative races to watch in 2012.  

Lo and behold, nearly half of all of those races are in Jeffco.

From Luning:

It’s just four months until Colorado voters cast ballots in the June primary, and already the battle for control of the General Assembly is taking shape.

Following last year’s contentious reapportionment fight, which scrambled districts statewide and resulted in an unusually high number of competitive districts – at least as measured by voter registration statistics – both Republicans and Democrats are vying for majorities in the state House and Senate. Republicans currently hold a one-vote margin in the House, and Democrats control the Senate by five votes, but an unprecedented turnover in the chambers means those majorities could be entirely up for grabs this year.

The Colorado Statesman has compiled a list of the 12 legislative races – including a handful of primaries – to watch this year, based on interviews with party strategists, campaign operatives, candidates and neutral observers. At the end of each month up to the election, we’ll update the list to reflect changes in the ranking based on what’s sure to be a dynamic campaign year.

…

1. Senate District 22 – Democratic state Rep. Andy Kerr vs. Republican state Rep. Ken Summers

This is the marquee legislative race this year because it pits two solidly partisan, veteran lawmakers against each other in a quintessential swing district smack in the middle of bellwether Jefferson County. It’s also the contest that has seen the most twists and turns on the way to the final line-up, promising plenty of excitement right down to the wire. Reapportionment maps crowded state Reps. Kerr and Summers, along with Democratic state Rep. Max Tyler, into the same House district, leaving Kerr and Summers to emerge as candidates for the open Senate seat.

Rated: A pure toss-up.

…

3. House District 29 – Incumbent Republican state Rep. Robert Ramirez vs. Democratic challenger Tracy Kraft-Tharp

Even if this north Jefferson County district weren’t one of the most evenly divided in the state, it would still feature one of the most hotly contested races if only because of its symbolic value. This was the seat that flipped control of the House from Democrats to Republicans in 2010 when Ramirez toppled state Rep. Debbie Benefield by a mere 197 votes. Since that win, House Speaker Frank McNulty has been touting Ramirez as the linchpin for Republicans. Though he briefly flirted with a run for his Senate seat, by all appearances he’s working as hard to keep his seat as he did to win it the first time around, facing a strong challenge from lawyer Kraft-Tharp, a Democratic Party stalwart.

Rated: Pure toss-up.

…

6. Senate District 19 – Incumbent Democratic state Sen. Evie Hudak vs. Republican challenger Lang Sias

Republicans want this Arvada and Westminster seat in a big way, evidenced by a flurry of TV ads – yes, TV ads! – already unleashed on Hudak in an attempt to soften her up for past congressional candidate Sias. The ads went after Hudak for supporting last fall’s failed ballot initiative Proposition 103. It would have raised state taxes by $3 billion to fund education, a hot-button issue Democrats aren’t too worried will irreparably damage the former teacher, whose views on education funding are hardly a secret. On the heels of his losing primary to run against U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, Sias brings campaign experience and the past backing of U.S. Sen. John McCain to the suburban battleground.

Rated: Hudak’s familiarity with district gives her a slight edge, but Sias could benefit from sour voter mood.

…

7. House District 28 – Republican Amy Attwood vs. the winner of a Democratic primary between Brian Carroll and Brittany Pettersen

By the numbers alone, this Lakewood district ought to be a safe Democratic seat, but the combination of a combative Democratic primary and a seasoned Republican candidate make the outcome less predictable. Attwood knows the district inside and out, having run a failing bid for Lakewood City Council and gotten a jump on the partisan side as an aide to state Rep. Ken Summers, who is running for an open Senate seat. She’ll have the advantage of campaigning unobstructed through June while the Democrats slog through a primary. Campaign organizer Pettersen jumped in the race last week at the urging of local Democrats who feared Carroll had burned too many bridges during his short-lived primary challenge last fall against state Rep. Andy Kerr, when Carroll ran as the first openly gay veteran to launch a bid following the repeal of the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” military rule.

Rated: Pettersen looks strong out of the gate, and if primary isn’t too bruising could hold the advantage in November.

…

8. House District 23 – Incumbent Democratic state Rep. Max Tyler vs. Republican challenger Rick Enstrom

Touted as a top example of Republican legislative candidate recruitment efforts this year, Enstrom’s bid to unseat Tyler could give the Democrat his first real race in the central Jefferson County district. The candy man brings a solid record of public service and mainstream GOP positions to a race Republicans hope to turn into a referendum on Tyler’s more liberal approach to government.

Rated: Leans Tyler, but Enstrom will make him work for it.

We think Luning is spot on in almost all of his analysis. The campaign between Kerr and Summers isn’t simply the most compelling in Jeffco, it’s an incredibly important indicator of Colorado’s political temperature as 2012 progresses. There’s good reason it’s the top race to watch.

We disagree, however, that the race between Kraft-Tharp and Ramirez is a toss-up. Kraft-Tharp is outraising the sitting representative, after all. Ramirez’s brief exit from the House race only bolsters the perception that Kraft-Tharp is the candidate to beat, and that perception will only lead to increased fundraising. Luning’s right that the dynamics of this race may very well change between now and November – Ramirez will no doubt receive a healthy amount of outside support from those wanting to preserve the razor-thin GOP majority in the House – but we think Kraft-Tharp is currently enjoying a definite edge. Ramirez knows it, too.

As for the House District 28 campaign, we agree that Pettersen is making the best case for the Democratic nomination right now in part because of her backing from prominent “local Democrats.” If Carroll can argue, however, that he’s learned from his past indiscretions and if he continues pulling in enough money, he’ll swiftly fill the gap. He’ll also need to demonstrate that he didn’t move into Lakewood just to run for office.

Either way, we give Attwood the advantage against either Democratic candidate. Unlike both Carroll and to a lesser extent Pettersen, Attwood is well-known in Lakewood. Yes, she lost her last campaign for Lakewood City Council, but that only gives her impetus to work that much harder for the house seat. And we suspect that many Lakewood voters wish Attwood had won her last election, given Councilman Dave Wiechman’s recent problems.