We’ve previously written that the viability of Democrat Tim Allport’s campaign against Republican Representative Libby Szabo hinges on Allport’s fundraising numbers. The GOP hold an 8% lead in voter registration within the district, so Allport needed to outraise — or at least come close to — the incumbent Szabo.
Szabo had an average period, adding $11,000 to her massive $34,500 war chest. Spending nearly $3,000, Szabo’s left with about $42,530 on hand.
While it would’ve been impossible for Allport to narrow such a colossal fundraising gap, the labor activist posted a respectable $9,400, adding to the $3,500 he previously held. He spent about $4,300 of that, leaving him with just under $8,700 on hand.
Szabo holds an incredible fundraising advantage, there’s no question. HD-27 is a difficult seat for any Democrat to win, and while Allport hasn’t yet proven that he can raise enough money to do it, he has shown that he’s a credible candidate — noteworthy for any Democrat faced with such a steep uphill battle. That Allport came within $1,600 of Szabo’s numbers shows that he’s connected and charismatic enough to elude being labeled a “sacrificial lamb.” Allport’s legitimacy as a candidate is self-perpetuating; proving that he can raise money will bring more money in.
More importantly, it may also draw outside attention (and money) into the race. Given Szabo’s predilection for religious zealotry and loyal opposition to this year’s civil unions effort at the Capitol, she makes a pretty target for wealthy LGBT donors who have already promised to do whatever it takes to give Democrats the speaker’s gavel. Because Allport has proven his electoral credibility, the path to a Democratic majority for these outside groups might go straight through HD-27 — if only because of the sheer symbolic weight of a Szabo defeat.
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It’s totally ridiculous to insinuate that Allport could raise enough in this race to be competitive with Szabo. It’s not just the raw registration advantage that he has to overcome. This is a district that Ken Buck won by 5 points, and Walker Stapleton won by 15 points. Anything with an RPI above +10 is totally quixotic. This isn’t 2010. Even if Libby Szabo was as derided and hated as JCP seems to think she is (she isn’t) it would still be a tough one.
Your analysis is not only off, but it might make Dems think that they should actually waste their time and treasure on an unwinnable seat.
I’m her constituent, I own a home in the district, I know my neighbors, and Szabo is widely despised. She is rude, unresponsive to constituents, and an embarrassment. She threw a tantrum about being removed from a TEMPORARY committee placement during the session. HD27 is full of nice, hard-working folks who may lean Republican, but don’t have much appreciation for selfish, nasty politicians who are clearly only in the game for personal gratification.
Also, you forget Sara Gagliardi’s time in this seat. It might not be as easily turned blue as some would like, but it’s not as solidly red as you’d like to paint it.
Has made this seat unwinnable. When Gagliardi won it, it was only R+6, not R+15. All the blue precincts were cut out of HD-27.
Do yourself a favor and put your time and money into a seat that actually has a chance of being flipped.