May 25, 2013 10:27 AM UTC

The Contours of a Gessler vs. Tancredo Primary

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• by: Colorado Pols

An eventful week in Colorado politics began with the entry of a joke GOP candidate into the Colorado gubernatorial field, which if anything helped underscore the GOP's lack of candidates for this race–followed by that candidate's swift and unceremonious exit as two very well-known Republican political commodities filed to enter the race for the right to take on Gov. John Hickenlooper in 2014. Obviously, it's much better for Republicans to have actual names to discuss this Memorial Day weekend as gubernatorial candidates than some New England carpetbagger named "Laffey."

Now let's ask the next logical question: what would a primary between former Rep. Tom Tancredo and Secretary of State Scott Gessler look like?

We'll start by saying it would be a big mistake to write off the ability of Tancredo, for all his warts, to compete down the stretch in a GOP primary. As founder of the Independence Institute and former Congressman—not to mention presidential candidate—Tancredo has plenty of support from across the nation that he can channel into a gubernatorial bid. Particularly with regard to ideological allies of Tancredo's hard line against immigration, the devotion of the far right to Tancredo is what makes him formidable. Plus, love him or hate him, few politicos in Colorado can match Tancredo's name ID.

Gessler, on the other hand, would in all likelihood have the support of the traditional GOP establishment in the state, and access to unlimited funds as long as he does. A former puppetmaster of the soft side of GOP campaign spending as partner at Hackstaff Gessler, that vast (if a bit clumsy) infrastructure would presumably gravitate to his camp as well. Moreover, Gessler's popularity on the right for his attempts at "cracking down" on "voter fraud" could be an edge for him in a tough choice for hard-nosed talk radio conservatives. That said, his more or less continuous ham-fisted controversies since taking office, most recently his failed attempt to delink the repayment of improperly spent funds from his discretionary account from the launch of his gubernatorial campaign, are enough to give even the most Machiavellian of Republican activists pause.

For a whole bunch of reasons, from ongoing friction between the GOP upper class and the "Tea Party" to the volatility on the right after this year's Democratic tour de force in the General Assembly…this could be a really epic primary.

To be clear, what we're hypothesizing about would be a two-way primary between Tancredo and Gessler, which leaves out several other entirely possible scenarios—to include entry of a superior candidate over either of these two, though we can't really imagine who that would be. We've heard Colorado Mesa University President Tim Foster's name, as we reported earlier this month, but he's frankly eclipsed by either. Hank Brown, anyone?

And of course, there's the possibility that Sen. Greg Brophy, who has been talking about this race for some time, will not be Bigfooted quietly into that good night. Brophy too doesn't have the name recognition to match Gessler or Tancredo, but he is smart enough to know that his window for political advancement is in fact pretty small. Going for broke in 2014 might honestly be preferable to becoming the next Mark Hillman.

However it comes together, there are the makings in a Gessler vs. Tancredo primary of the most entertaining GOP slugfest since Bob Beauprez vs. Marc Holtzman in 2005-06. Since, you know, 2010 was just kind of tragic.

Grab your popcorn and stay tuned, folks!