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May 25, 2013 10:27 AM UTC

The Contours of a Gessler vs. Tancredo Primary

  • 26 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

gesslervtanc

An eventful week in Colorado politics began with the entry of a joke GOP candidate into the Colorado gubernatorial field, which if anything helped underscore the GOP's lack of candidates for this race–followed by that candidate's swift and unceremonious exit as two very well-known Republican political commodities filed to enter the race for the right to take on Gov. John Hickenlooper in 2014. Obviously, it's much better for Republicans to have actual names to discuss this Memorial Day weekend as gubernatorial candidates than some New England carpetbagger named "Laffey."

Now let's ask the next logical question: what would a primary between former Rep. Tom Tancredo and Secretary of State Scott Gessler look like?

We'll start by saying it would be a big mistake to write off the ability of Tancredo, for all his warts, to compete down the stretch in a GOP primary. As founder of the Independence Institute and former Congressman—not to mention presidential candidate—Tancredo has plenty of support from across the nation that he can channel into a gubernatorial bid. Particularly with regard to ideological allies of Tancredo's hard line against immigration, the devotion of the far right to Tancredo is what makes him formidable. Plus, love him or hate him, few politicos in Colorado can match Tancredo's name ID.

Gessler, on the other hand, would in all likelihood have the support of the traditional GOP establishment in the state, and access to unlimited funds as long as he does. A former puppetmaster of the soft side of GOP campaign spending as partner at Hackstaff Gessler, that vast (if a bit clumsy) infrastructure would presumably gravitate to his camp as well. Moreover, Gessler's popularity on the right for his attempts at "cracking down" on "voter fraud" could be an edge for him in a tough choice for hard-nosed talk radio conservatives. That said, his more or less continuous ham-fisted controversies since taking office, most recently his failed attempt to delink the repayment of improperly spent funds from his discretionary account from the launch of his gubernatorial campaign, are enough to give even the most Machiavellian of Republican activists pause.

For a whole bunch of reasons, from ongoing friction between the GOP upper class and the "Tea Party" to the volatility on the right after this year's Democratic tour de force in the General Assembly…this could be a really epic primary.

To be clear, what we're hypothesizing about would be a two-way primary between Tancredo and Gessler, which leaves out several other entirely possible scenarios—to include entry of a superior candidate over either of these two, though we can't really imagine who that would be. We've heard Colorado Mesa University President Tim Foster's name, as we reported earlier this month, but he's frankly eclipsed by either. Hank Brown, anyone?

And of course, there's the possibility that Sen. Greg Brophy, who has been talking about this race for some time, will not be Bigfooted quietly into that good night. Brophy too doesn't have the name recognition to match Gessler or Tancredo, but he is smart enough to know that his window for political advancement is in fact pretty small. Going for broke in 2014 might honestly be preferable to becoming the next Mark Hillman.

However it comes together, there are the makings in a Gessler vs. Tancredo primary of the most entertaining GOP slugfest since Bob Beauprez vs. Marc Holtzman in 2005-06. Since, you know, 2010 was just kind of tragic.

Grab your popcorn and stay tuned, folks!

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26 thoughts on “The Contours of a Gessler vs. Tancredo Primary”

      1. And Tanc went third party to actually run against the too late to be unselected official GOP candidate in the general.  That leaves Gessler as the one who hasn't blamed or screwed his own party.

        The funds issues aren't a factor where Republicans are concerned. We know they don't think Gessler did anything wrong and how much less electable in a general would that make him than Tanc? Not much of a consideration, especially since they don't seem to pay all that much attention to electability these days. 

        I don't think there are any videos of Gessler on the stage with white supremacists singing Dixie or anything.  I don't think he's made near the number of blatantly outrageous statements.  If his team, backed by the GOP establishment, has any smarts they shouldn't have too much trouble painting Gessler as the sane serious (by current GOP standards) and litmus test passing conservative and Tanc as the one who is a loud mouthed, off putting loose cannon without being any more conservative than the more presentable (once again by current GOP standards) Gessler.

        I say, Gessler wins a two way primary and neither beats Hick.

    1. Moderate conservatives Brophy or Hillman would be better candidates than Tancredo or Gessler, who are both political lightning rods and further to the right of most Republicans.

      1. Brophy is unique, I'll give him that, and occasionally he earns some respect for some of his quirkier ideas… but "moderate" he is not.

  4. Even ArapaGOP's support of Gessler was merely provisional — barring entry of a better candidate, if I recall his words correctly.

    If Hick were truly vulnerable, then the chances of this remaining a 2-way primary would be virtually nil.  But as with many incumbents, the office is Hick's to lose, and I don't think he will.

    A candidate like Hank Brown (who actually would be quite competitive in the general) has no chance of winning a primary unless either or both Gessler and Tanc, um, tank.

    So I predict that no other big-name-recognition candidates enter the primary, and will let the current show horses prance around the ring going through the motions of a campaign.

    Gessler, with good money resources, will put on a strong campaign with superficial support from the party establishment.  But I have to believe the on-going stink around his character and lack of ethics will turn off enough voters that Tanc, even though way past his expiration date, will appeal to a large number of right-wing primary voters.

    Neither have a prayer in the general, for the same reasons mentioned above.

    If Tanc wins the primary (my prediction), then the GOP will fall in line behind him and he'll pull about 45% in the general.

    1. I think you are right. Tanc pulls the anti-immigration crowd, the pro-gun..let's get Hick group; the let's execute Dunlap; and the other assorted angry voters.  It will be interesting to see if Tanc pulls in a lot of out of state money.

    2. Don't think so, Davie.  It's not as if Tanc who as you point out is past his expiration date, would be going up against a more moderate opponent in Gessler. Gessler's got plenty of anti-immgrant and anti all other Dem leaning demos cred for fighting tooth and nail to suppress the vote of "those people" and hasn't exactly been making pro-immigration reform noises.  There's no stink around his character or ethics among Repugs.  In fact he's seen as unfairly beleaguered and they love that being able to whine about that kind of thing. Just look at ArapGoof. He's still very much talking up Gessler, not Tanc.

      Besides Tanc's lack of anything resembling gravitas he's a proven gubernatorial loser who doesn't really offer them anything much different than what they get with state wide winner and superficially less clownish Gessler besides a candidate who will be more overtly offensive.  Gessler should be able to use that effectively in a primary campaign.  If it's just the two of them,  I'd still put my money on Gessler for the primary.  He can also play up Tanc's out of state v his in state money. Right for Colorado and all that. Introducing another candidate or two could lead to who knows what kind of splits.  Either loses to Hick, though.

      1. While you are right that Gessler is the "favored" candidate for the moment, I trust that he will find a way to self-distruct, thus leaving it to Tanc to carry the GOP banner, such as it is.

  5. Oh, and this little item is one reason why I don't think 2014 is going to be the year the GOP makes miraculous comeback:

    The number of Americans who view the Republican Party unfavorably has hit a record high, according to a new poll released by CNN on Monday, despite scandals that have plagued the White House over the past few weeks. 

     

    The poll found that 59 percent of respondents view the GOP unfavorably, a record that has only shown up one other time in the poll's results since tracking began in 1992.

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-gop-favorability-rating-obama-irs-tea-party-scandals-2013-5#ixzz2UKXNjeqO

  7. There's no need to misrepresent the situation. Scott Gessler will have the support he need. I doubt this primary will lost long, if it ever really gets going.

    We've all read Blueprint. It's not going to work this time.

  8. What would a primary contest between Tancredo and Gessler look like?  It would look like a win for Gov Hickenlooper, however, not an easy win.  A three party contest in the general election would be a landslide victory for Hick.

  9. Frankly, even if there were the possibility he'd win, I'd still be happy to see Gessler running for governor than secretary of state.  He would be the most overtly partisan governor the state has seen in a long time.  But as a governor, being a partisan just makes you a crappy governor.  As secretary ofsState, being so overtly partisan makes you pretty much engaged in a conspiracy to subvert democracy.

    That said, I see Gessler losing to Tancredo, if anyone on the Tancredo team has the willpower to push the matter.  Given two right-wing candidates they can agree with, why in the world would primary voters choose the one who also has a string of very serious ethics violations in his history?  I'm not saying there are no ethical implications to Tancredo's history, but Tancredo's ethical problems are partisan, and won't bother primary voters much.  Gessler is just a flat out fat cat corrupt politician milking the system for public money while installing rich associates in positions of influence, and if Tancredo points that out, it's not something conservatives will choose to overlook.

      1. the priary. He would have a good shot vs Hick. As a con you can expect he'd strongly support O&G. He opposed Obamacare, supported some efforts vs consumer fraud, favors death penalty

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