July 10, 2013 10:46 AM UTC

Why New Coffman® on Immigration, You Ask?

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• by: Colorado Pols

Politico's James Arkin supplies the answer:

Voters in seven GOP-held congressional districts would be less likely to vote for their current representative if he doesn’t support immigration reform, according to the poll from Public Policy Polling. The number of voters who would be less likely to support their current congressman ranged from 40 to 47 percent, while the number of voters who would be more likely ranged from 19 to 31 percent.

Voters also said they were less likely to support Republican candidates in general next year if the GOP House members block the current immigration reform proposal.

The Hill's Cameron Joseph:

The districts surveyed include five with high numbers of Hispanic voters, represented by Republican Reps. Jeff Denham (Calif.), Gary Miller (Calif.), David Valadao (Calif.), Mike Coffman (Colo.) [Pols emphasis] and Joe Heck (Nev.).

And from Public Policy Polling's memo:

The reason voters would hold it against their officials if immigration reform does not pass is that there’s overwhelming support for it in each of these highly competitive districts. Anywhere from 61 to 69% support the proposal the Senate passed last month. There’s also a sense of urgency on the issue with 75 to 78% of voters in each district saying they think it’s important the US fix its immigration system this year.

The poll confirms something our readers already understand, which is that Rep. Mike Coffman is one of the most endangered incumbent Republicans in America–primarily due to redistricting that transformed his former Republican stronghold into a diverse battleground. The problem for Coffman is, his new moderate view on the issue of immigration has not made the jump from rhetoric to votes–and based on Coffman's recent weasely vote against DREAMer students, there's little confidence that New Coffman® can suppress Old Coffman long enough to actually vote in favor of comprehensive immigration reform. We'd say the odds are at least even that he won't.

Well folks, here's a poll saying that could mean the end of Coffman's political career.